Market evolution: Sneakers (CN 640411) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU market for sports footwear (CN 640411) is defined by its massive scale, persistent trade deficit, and heavy reliance on extra-EU suppliers. Over the 2015–2025 period, the General Overview shows the bloc remained a net importer, with the value of imports growing from €2.10 billion to €2.80 billion. A defining feature of this decade was a significant price increase coupled with a decline in physical volumes, indicating a market where the value of traded goods grew even as the quantity of pairs and tonnes contracted. The landscape of suppliers and EU exporters also underwent a profound reconfiguration, influenced by geopolitical shifts, cost competition, and likely the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

1. From China to Vietnam: The Reconfiguration of Sneaker Supply Chains

The decade witnessed a dramatic shift in the geographic origin of sneakers entering the EU, characterized by the ascent of Vietnam and the decline of traditional suppliers.

The Vietnamese Sourcing Boom

Vietnam emerged as the undisputed leader in supplying the EU market. The value of EU imports from Vietnam surged by 134.1%, growing from €753 million in 2015 to €1.76 billion in 2025. This cemented its position as the top extra-EU partner, a status it solidified especially after 2019, as shown in the top partners by value data.

China's Relative Decline and the UK's Brexit Shock

In stark contrast, the value of EU imports from China fell by 37.8%, from €720 million to €448 million. While China remained the second-largest supplier, its share diminished significantly. An even sharper decline was seen with the United Kingdom, where import value collapsed by 63.6% (from €166 million to €60 million), a direct consequence of Brexit and the new trade frictions. This volatility is reflected in the UK's exceptionally high coefficient of variation (0.86) in import values.

Diversification to Other Asian Producers

The EU also diversified its sourcing within Asia. Imports from Indonesia grew steadily (+7.9%), while those from Bangladesh saw explosive growth (+515.2%), albeit from a low base. This trend indicates a broadening of the supplier base beyond the traditional giants.

2. Rising Values and the Price-Volume Divergence

A central theme of the period is the disconnect between the value of trade and its underlying volume, driven by sustained increases in unit prices.

The Era of Price Growth

Both for imports and exports, the average price per tonne (and per pair) reached its highest recorded level in 2025. The export price per tonne rose by 46.3%, from €41,984 to €61,421. The import price per tonne increased by 18.1%, from €20,653 to €24,390.

Declining Physical Trade Volumes

Despite rising values, the quantity in tonnes for both imports and exports decreased. Import volumes fell from 101,920 tonnes in 2015 to 114,750 tonnes in 2025—a modest 12.6% increase—while export volumes dropped by 12.4%. More telling is the supplementary quantity (number of pairs): the number of pairs imported fell by 9.1% (from 159 million to 145 million pairs), and the number of pairs exported fell by 21.1% (from 17.8 million to 14.0 million pairs). This price-volume divergence suggests that inflation in the sector, potential premiumization, and supply chain cost increases outweighed growth in physical demand.

3. Consolidation, Specialization, and a New Export Profile

The market structure evolved towards greater concentration in sourcing and a more diversified, albeit smaller, export base.

Increasing Import Concentration

The concentration of imports as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) increased by 59.8% (from 2,765 to 4,421), moving it into the "moderately concentrated" range. This confirms the consolidation of sourcing around a few key Asian partners, led by Vietnam.

Specialization Within the EU

An analysis of comparative advantage for 2025 reveals that Belgium is the most specialized large EU exporter (RSCA 0.62), handling a significant portion of the bloc's extra-EU exports. Meanwhile, Germany and Italy, while major exporters in value, are less specialized in this specific product category relative to their overall trade.

The Diversification of EU Export Destinations

The EU's export profile became less concentrated (HHI for exports fell by 69.8%) and shifted geographically. Exports to the United Kingdom, the former top destination, halved in value (-50.4%). Conversely, exports to Switzerland (+555.5%), Norway (+321.0%), Türkiye (+84.0%), and the United Arab Emirates (+682.2%) grew substantially. This indicates a reorientation of EU-based brands and re-exporters towards other European and Middle Eastern markets post-Brexit.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade in sneakers (CN 640411) underwent a structural transformation. The market consolidated its dependence on Asian suppliers, with Vietnam decisively overtaking China as the primary source. This period was characterized by rising values and falling volumes, pointing to significant cost and price pressures upstream. Domestically, EU production saw a sharp decline in the number of pairs produced (-32.0%), even as the value of that production increased (+45.5%), highlighting a move towards higher-value output. The export side adapted to Brexit by diversifying towards continental Europe and other global markets. Ultimately, the data portrays a market that is more price-intensive, more reliant on a concentrated set of Asian supply chains, and whose intra-EU and extra-EU trade patterns have been reshaped by both economic and geopolitical forces.