Market evolution: Sheep skin wet blue tanned (CN 410510) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in sheep and lamb skins in the wet state, tanned, without wool on (CN code 410510) over the period 2015–2025. The product sits within the broader RAW HIDES AND SKINS (OTHER THAN FURSKINS) AND LEATHER category and is used as an intermediate good in leather finishing industries. Over the decade, the EU's trade position in this market has undergone a structural transformation: imports surged while exports collapsed, supplier concentration intensified dramatically, and the EU's vulnerability to external supply shocks deepened. These shifts reflect broader changes in the global leather supply chain, with China emerging as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier and traditional partners losing ground.
1. A Widening Structural Deficit: The Diverging Paths of Imports and Exports
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sharp divergence between EU imports and exports in both value and volume terms.
1.1 Imports surged to record highs
EU imports of CN 410510 grew from €64.7 million in 2015 to €100.1 million in 2025, representing a 54.7% increase in value. Import volumes rose more moderately, from 10,136 tonnes to 13,402 tonnes (+32.2%). Unit import prices edged up from €6,382/tonne to €7,467/tonne (+17.0%), indicating that the value growth was partly driven by price increases and partly by higher physical volumes. The trajectory was not linear: imports dipped during the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020 (reaching a trough of €25.3 million), but recovered strongly in 2021–2022 and accelerated further to their peak in 2025.
| Year | Import Value (€M) | Import Qty (t) | Unit Price (€/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 64.7 | 10,136 | 6,382 |
| 2016 | 45.3 | 9,676 | 4,677 |
| 2017 | 46.1 | 9,755 | 4,726 |
| 2018 | 45.4 | 9,389 | 4,835 |
| 2019 | 43.2 | 8,718 | 4,954 |
| 2020 | 25.3 | 5,560 | 4,546 |
| 2021 | 45.6 | 8,127 | 5,607 |
| 2022 | 75.6 | 10,678 | 7,076 |
| 2023 | 79.4 | 10,416 | 7,627 |
| 2024 | 79.1 | 10,197 | 7,756 |
| 2025 | 100.1 | 13,402 | 7,467 |
1.2 Exports collapsed in value despite modest volume resilience
EU exports followed the opposite trajectory in value terms, falling from €7.0 million in 2015 to €3.2 million in 2025—a 55.1% decline. Strikingly, export volumes actually rose by 47.3% (from 434 tonnes to 639 tonnes), meaning the entire value decline was driven by a collapse in unit export prices, which plummeted from €16,177/tonne to €4,934/tonne (–69.5%). EU exporters were shipping more tonnage but at dramatically lower prices—a dynamic consistent with commoditisation or a loss of pricing power in international markets.
| Year | Export Value (€M) | Export Qty (t) | Unit Price (€/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 7.0 | 434 | 16,177 |
| 2016 | 6.2 | 537 | 11,550 |
| 2017 | 4.9 | 854 | 5,685 |
| 2018 | 6.9 | 1,592 | 4,349 |
| 2019 | 6.0 | 1,113 | 5,366 |
| 2020 | 3.8 | 1,207 | 3,150 |
| 2021 | 3.1 | 1,040 | 2,962 |
| 2022 | 5.2 | 1,678 | 3,107 |
| 2023 | 3.9 | 981 | 3,962 |
| 2024 | 3.5 | 755 | 4,593 |
| 2025 | 3.2 | 639 | 4,934 |
1.3 The trade deficit more than doubled
The combination of rising imports and falling exports caused the EU's trade deficit to widen from –€57.7 million in 2015 to –€96.9 million in 2025 (–68.0% deterioration). The net import reliance ratio escalated correspondingly, climbing from 35.5% in 2015 (based on the 2006 starting point) to a peak of 82.6% in 2024—a more than doubling of the EU's external dependency. This is the clearest indicator that the EU has transitioned from a relatively self-sufficient position to one of acute reliance on third-country supply for this product.
2. The Chinese Consolidation: A Dramatic Reorientation of Supply Sources
2.1 China's meteoric rise as the EU's dominant supplier
The most consequential structural shift in this market has been China's transformation from a marginal supplier to the overwhelmingly dominant import partner. In 2015, China supplied only €2.5 million worth of CN 410510 to the EU—roughly 4% of total imports. By 2025, this had surged to €81.5 million, an extraordinary increase of 3,173.5%, representing approximately 81% of all EU imports in value terms. The growth was particularly pronounced after 2020, with Chinese imports accelerating sharply in 2021–2025.
| Year | China Imports (€M) | China Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2.5 | 3.8% |
| 2016 | 0.3 | 0.7% |
| 2017 | 3.9 | 8.4% |
| 2018 | 8.6 | 19.0% |
| 2019 | 12.3 | 28.4% |
| 2020 | 7.4 | 29.3% |
| 2021 | 20.1 | 44.2% |
| 2022 | 46.3 | 61.3% |
| 2023 | 54.6 | 68.7% |
| 2024 | 57.7 | 73.0% |
| 2025 | 81.5 | 81.4% |
2.2 Traditional Mediterranean and Middle Eastern suppliers declined
As China's share expanded, most traditional suppliers experienced significant value declines:
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 10.3 | 5.6 | –45.9% |
| Iraq | 7.5 | 1.1 | –85.0% |
| Türkiye | 3.6 | 3.6 | –0.7% |
| Algeria | 3.9 | 1.1 | –72.6% |
| Jordan | 3.8 | 1.0 | –73.8% |
| Tunisia | 3.2 | 0.6 | –83.0% |
Iraq and Tunisia saw the steepest declines (–85.0% and –83.0% respectively), while Nigeria—the EU's largest supplier in 2015—lost nearly half its value. Türkiye was the only traditional partner to maintain roughly stable value levels, though even this masked periods of volatility. The data suggests that Mediterranean and Middle Eastern suppliers have been progressively displaced by Chinese competition, likely reflecting China's growing capacity in leather processing and its ability to offer lower prices.
2.3 Import concentration reached historically high levels
The consolidation of supply into Chinese hands is quantified by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, which surged from 741 in 2015 to 6,691 in 2025—an increase of 803%. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. This concentration introduces significant supply-chain vulnerability: any disruption to Chinese exports—whether from trade policy, logistics bottlenecks, or domestic market shifts—would have outsized consequences for EU leather processors.
3. An Industry in Transition: Declining EU Production, Shifting Specialisation, and Emerging Export Destinations
3.1 EU production value collapsed while volumes held steady
Available EU production data reveals a striking disconnect between physical output and revenue. Production quantities remained broadly stable—ranging from 8.3 million units in 2015 to 10.0 million in 2024—but production value collapsed from €36.2 million to €21.0 million (–66.8%). Unit production prices fell from €4.4/unit to €2.1/unit over the same period. This mirrors the export price collapse observed in trade data and points to a broader deflationary trend in the European wet-blue tanning sector, likely driven by overcapacity and intensifying global competition.
3.2 Italy and Spain dominated EU trade, with diverging trajectories
Within the EU, Italy was by far the largest importer (€85.9 million in 2025, up 41.4% from 2015), reflecting its position as Europe's premier leather processing hub. Spain was the second-largest importer and saw the most explosive growth—imports surged from €2.8 million to €12.8 million (+365.2%). On the export side, Italy remained the largest exporter but its export value fell from €5.4 million to €1.0 million (–81.5%), while Spain's exports proved more resilient, declining only 19.9% from €1.5 million to €1.8 million. Specialisation data for 2025 confirms this pattern: Spain showed a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 16.4), indicating a genuine specialisation in this product, while Italy's RCA was below 1 (0.37), suggesting it has transitioned toward being more of a consumer and re-exporter of finished leather rather than a net exporter of wet-blue skins.
3.3 Export destination markets diversified, with Serbia collapsing and Brazil rising
The EU's export destination profile underwent significant reshuffling. Serbia was the EU's largest export partner in 2015 (€4.1 million, accounting for 59% of exports) but its purchases collapsed to just €31,000 in 2025 (–99.2%). By contrast, Brazil emerged as a major destination, growing from virtually zero in 2015 to €771,000 in 2025. Pakistan also became a meaningful buyer, rising from €85,000 to €171,000. However, the export HHI actually fell from 3,780 to 1,332 (–64.8%), indicating that export markets became less concentrated over time—a positive development for diversification, even as total export values declined. Two notable price shock events were detected: an extreme price spike in exports to Türkiye in 2020 (unit prices surging 1,664% to €11,493/tonne on minimal volumes) and a price shock to Serbia in 2022 (prices jumping 41.4% alongside declining volumes), both likely reflecting market disruptions or one-off transactions rather than structural trends.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for wet-blue tanned sheep skins (CN 410510) underwent a fundamental structural reorientation. The EU has become far more dependent on external supply—particularly from China, which now accounts for over 80% of import value—while its own export capacity has eroded significantly in both value and pricing power. The trade deficit has more than doubled, and the import supply base has consolidated to historically high concentration levels, creating a pronounced vulnerability to single-source dependency. Meanwhile, EU production has maintained physical volumes but suffered a severe deflation in prices, suggesting that the European tanning industry faces competitive pressures that may be difficult to reverse. Traditional Mediterranean and Middle Eastern suppliers have largely lost market share to China, while EU export destinations have diversified somewhat from their former heavy reliance on Serbia. Going forward, the central question for this market will be whether the EU can rebalance its supply base to reduce concentration risk, and whether its own production and export sectors can recover competitive ground in an increasingly China-dominated global leather supply chain.