Market evolution: Saddlery and harness (CN 4201) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in saddlery and harness for any animal (Combined Nomenclature code 4201) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a broad range of goods including traces, leads, knee pads, muzzles, saddle cloths, saddlebags, and dog coats, of any material (excluding harnesses for children and adults, and riding whips classified under heading 6602). The analysis is based on trade data from the EU Trade Dashboard and covers annual data from 2015 to 2025, focusing on trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries.

The overall picture is one of a market that has grown substantially in value terms, with imports growing significantly faster than exports, widening the EU's trade deficit. Import sourcing has become more concentrated, particularly towards China, while the EU's export profile reveals a niche, higher-value-added positioning. Several price shocks in key export destinations during 2022–2023 add a layer of volatility to the market.

1. A Widening Structural Trade Deficit

The EU has consistently maintained a trade deficit in saddlery and harness over the entire period under review. This deficit widened meaningfully between 2015 and 2025, driven by the faster growth of imports relative to exports.

1.1. Imports grew faster than exports in both value and volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports from non-EU countries increased by 49.5%, rising from €300.8 million to €449.8 million. Over the same period, the value of EU exports to non-EU countries grew by 38.8%, from €144.1 million to €200.0 million (General Overview).

In volume terms, the picture is similar. Import quantities rose by 25.8% (from 23,995 tonnes to 30,193 tonnes), while export quantities grew by just 7.1% (from 5,522 tonnes to 5,916 tonnes). The faster growth in value relative to volume indicates rising unit values (prices) across both flows, but especially for EU exports.

1.2. Rising unit values point to premiumisation — especially on the export side

EU export prices (value per tonne) increased by 29.2%, from €26,094/t to €33,707/t, while import prices rose by 18.8%, from €12,537/t to €14,897/t. The fact that EU exports command unit values roughly 2.3 times those of EU imports in 2025 suggests the EU occupies a higher-value segment of the global saddlery market — likely reflecting a mix of branded, artisanal, and technical products versus more standardised, cost-competitive imports.

1.3. The deficit deepened through multiple phases

The trade deficit did not widen linearly. It narrowed to its tightest point at approximately −€139.5 million before widening again to its deepest at approximately −€382.0 million, eventually settling at −€249.8 million in 2025. This trajectory likely reflects the COVID-19 disruption in 2020 (which depressed import demand more than exports), the 2021–2022 import rebound, and subsequent normalisation. The deficit's widening overall confirms that the EU's domestic production has not kept pace with growing consumption of saddlery products.

2. Increasing Dependence on a Concentrated Set of Asian Suppliers

The EU's import base has become substantially more concentrated over the decade, with China consolidating its dominant position and a small number of Asian suppliers accounting for the bulk of import growth.

2.1. China's share of EU imports has surged

China remains by far the largest supplier of saddlery and harness to the EU. EU imports from China grew by 82.0% over the period, from €134.4 million to €244.5 million, with a peak of approximately €337.8 million (top partners by value). China alone accounted for approximately 54% of total EU imports in 2025, up from roughly 45% in 2015.

2.2. India and Viet Nam are the other fast-growing suppliers

India, the second-largest supplier, saw imports grow by 50.2% (from €72.6 million to €109.1 million), while Viet Nam experienced the fastest growth rate at 84.2% (from €7.7 million to €14.3 million). Together, China, India, and Viet Nam now account for a dominant share of EU imports, reflecting the broader global shift of leather goods and pet accessories manufacturing to low-cost Asian economies.

2.3. Some traditional suppliers have lost ground

Several sources of EU imports declined over the period. The United Kingdom (−14.7%), Taiwan (−37.5%), and the United States (−32.4%) all saw reduced flows to the EU. The UK decline is notable and may partly reflect the disruptions and new trade frictions associated with Brexit. Taiwan's decline may indicate a broader shift of manufacturing to mainland China and Southeast Asia.

2.4. Import concentration has increased markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose by 36.4%, from 2,686 to 3,665 (concentration analysis). This indicates a significant increase in import sourcing concentration, largely driven by China's growing dominance. A rising HHI in the context of EU trade policy discussions around supply-chain diversification and strategic autonomy suggests a growing vulnerability for this product category.

3. Diverging Export Dynamics: Niche Markets and Notable Price Shocks

While the EU is a net importer of saddlery and harness overall, its export trade reveals a differentiated and partly specialised market, with some notable episodes of price volatility in specific destination markets.

3.1. The United States and the United Kingdom are the top export destinations

The EU's main export markets in 2025 were the United States (€48.8 million, +30.5%), the United Kingdom (€34.5 million, +9.6%), Switzerland (€24.6 million, +54.2%), and Norway (€13.1 million, −9.0%). These four markets together accounted for the majority of EU exports (top partners by value). The strong growth in exports to Switzerland (+54.2%) and the significant rise in exports to China (+853.1%, from €1.6 million to €15.2 million) stand out as the most dynamic developments.

The dramatic rise in EU exports to China is particularly striking and may reflect growing demand for premium European saddlery and equestrian products in China's expanding equestrian and pet care markets.

3.2. Several EU member states drive the export profile

Germany (€54.6 million), France (€33.4 million), Italy (€26.9 million), and the Netherlands (€22.3 million) are the leading EU exporters (top reporters by value). Italy's exports grew by 74.4%, the fastest among major exporters, consistent with Italy's traditional strength in leather goods craftsmanship. Ireland experienced a dramatic decline of 86.9%, suggesting a possible restructuring or offshoring of its saddlery production.

Export HHI declined by 16.7% (from 1,458 to 1,214), indicating that EU exports are distributed across a somewhat more diversified set of partners in 2025 compared to 2015.

3.3. Specialisation analysis reveals a Nordic and Dutch niche

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that Finland (RSCA 0.43), Denmark (0.29), the Netherlands (0.25), Sweden (0.11), and Italy (0.11) are the most specialised EU member states in saddlery and harness production and trade (specialisation analysis). This is consistent with the strong equestrian traditions in Scandinavia and the Netherlands, as well as Italy's leather goods expertise. At the other end, Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, and Greece show very low or negative specialisation, indicating minimal domestic activity in this sector.

3.4. Significant price shocks were detected in key export markets

The volatility analysis identified several notable price shock events in EU export flows:

The Australian shock stands out with an abnormality score of 72.6, indicating a highly unusual price movement. While the value share is modest (3.2%), the magnitude of the price shift — a 37.2% increase in a single year — suggests either a major composition change in what was being exported, or a supply/demand dislocation possibly linked to logistics costs and post-pandemic shipping disruptions that heavily affected Australia-bound trade in 2023. The Swiss and Canadian shocks, occurring in 2022 and 2023 respectively, likely reflect similar post-pandemic cost pressures and currency movements.

On the import side, the highest volatility coefficients were observed for trade with the United Kingdom (CV 0.58) and Türkiye (CV 0.46), consistent with Brexit-related trade disruptions and broader geopolitical instability in the Turkish market.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for saddlery and harness (CN 4201) experienced robust growth, with total trade (imports + exports) rising from approximately €445 million to €650 million. However, this growth was asymmetric: imports grew much faster than exports, widening the EU's structural trade deficit from €156.7 million to €249.8 million.

The import side is increasingly dominated by China, India, and Viet Nam, reflecting the broader globalisation of leather goods and pet product manufacturing. Import concentration has risen significantly (HHI +36.4%), raising questions about supply-chain resilience. On the export side, the EU maintains a niche, higher-value positioning — with unit values more than double those of imports — driven primarily by Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, and oriented towards the United States, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway.

EU domestic production grew by 26.2% over the period, but this was insufficient to keep pace with import growth, reinforcing the structural import dependency. The detection of notable price shocks in 2022–2023 in key export markets highlights the sector's exposure to logistics disruptions and post-pandemic cost pressures.

Looking ahead, the main dynamics to watch include China's continued dominance of EU import supply, the potential for further diversification towards Southeast Asian suppliers, the impact of evolving EU trade defence and due-diligence regulations, and the resilience of the EU's export niche in an increasingly competitive global market.