Market evolution: Rough wooden sticks and stakes (CN 4404) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 4404 covers a niche yet industrially significant segment of the wood sector: rough wooden sticks, stakes, split poles, hoopwood, chipwood and similar semi-processed wood products used as inputs for walking sticks, umbrellas, tool handles and other applications. Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's external trade in this product category underwent a substantial transformation. Total export value nearly doubled, rising from €28.7 million in 2015 to €56.6 million in 2025, while import value grew from €20.5 million to €35.1 million. This shift turned the EU from a modest net importer into a consistent net exporter. Meanwhile, unit prices surged dramatically on both sides — by 74.8% for exports and 117.7% for imports — reflecting broader post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures in raw wood markets. This report examines the main dynamics shaping the EU's trade in CN 4404 across three thematic axes: the structural price-volume divergence, the geographic realignment of trade partners, and the shifting competitive position of individual EU Member States.

The product category CN 4404 is a bundling heading that comprises two subcategories: 440410 (coniferous wood) and 440420 (non-coniferous wood). The data covers the period 2015–2025 at annual frequency, with incomplete periods already excluded. All figures refer to trade between the EU and non-EU countries.

1. A Market Transformed by Rising Prices and Falling Import Volumes

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence between value and volume trends on the import side. While import value rose by 71.5%, import quantity actually fell by 21.3% — from 80,763 tonnes in 2015 to 63,597 tonnes in 2025. This implies that the entire increase in import expenditure was driven by higher unit prices, which more than doubled (+117.7%, from €253/t to €552/t). On the export side, the picture is somewhat different: quantities grew moderately (+12.9%, from 92,116 t to 104,022 t), but value nearly doubled (+97.4%), again reflecting strong price inflation (export unit values rose from €311/t to €544/t, a gain of 74.8%).

1.1 Import prices surged far more than export prices

The asymmetry in price growth between imports and exports is a key observation. Over the full period, import prices rose by 117.7% while export prices rose by 74.8%. This gap widened the EU's terms of trade in this segment, though both sides experienced sharp acceleration after 2021. The price dynamics reflect the broader post-COVID surge in raw material costs, amplified by the disruption of traditional supply routes — particularly from Belarus and Russia — following geopolitical events in 2022.

1.2 Import volumes peaked in 2016 and have been declining since

EU import volumes in CN 4404 reached a high of 259,718 tonnes in 2016 before entering a prolonged decline. By 2025, volumes had fallen to 63,597 tonnes — a 75% drop from the peak. This decline was not linear but accelerated after 2020. The sharp contraction in import volumes, combined with rising prices, suggests structural supply-side constraints rather than weakening demand.

1.3 Export volumes peaked in 2019 and have since stabilised

Export volumes followed a different trajectory, climbing from 92,116 tonnes in 2015 to a peak of 477,855 tonnes in 2019 — an extraordinary fivefold increase driven largely by a surge in coniferous wood exports (440410). However, volumes then collapsed back to around 85,000–104,000 tonnes from 2020 onward. The 2019 spike appears to have been a one-off anomaly — possibly related to inventory shifts or a single large transaction — rather than the beginning of a sustained trend. The post-2019 stabilisation at 85,000–104,000 tonnes per year represents the more reliable baseline.

Source: General Overview

1.4 The EU flipped from net importer to net exporter

A direct consequence of these trends is that the EU's net import reliance shifted from +3.1% in 2015 (i.e., a small net import surplus) to –1.7% in 2025 (a net export surplus). At the trough of the indicator in 2019, net import reliance reached –15.7%, reflecting the exceptional export volume spike that year. The trade balance improved from €8.2 million surplus in 2015 to €21.5 million in 2025 — a 162% increase. This structural shift indicates that the EU has become a net supplier of rough wooden sticks and stakes to non-EU markets, a reversal that is partly explained by the collapse of imports from traditional suppliers and partly by the growth of EU production capacity (from 1.69 million m³ in 2015 to 3.04 million m³ in 2025, a gain of 80%, as reported in production volumes).

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partners

The decade saw a major realignment in both the EU's import sources and export destinations. The most consequential shifts include the rise of Ukraine as the EU's top import supplier, the relative decline of Belarus, and the consolidation of the United Kingdom as the dominant export market by a wide margin.

2.1 Ukraine replaced Belarus as the leading import source

In 2015, Belarus was the EU's largest import partner for CN 4404, supplying €7.4 million worth of product (36% of total imports). By 2025, Belarus had declined to €7.0 million — a modest 5.6% drop — while Ukraine surged from just €371,136 to €13.2 million, an extraordinary 3,467% increase. Ukraine's share of EU imports thus grew from under 2% to nearly 38%. This dramatic rise was driven by both volume and price increases, and reflects Ukraine's growing role as a wood exporter to the EU even before the geopolitical disruptions of 2022. The data suggests that Ukraine's wood sector reoriented significantly toward EU markets over this period.

Source: Top partners by value

2.2 Serbia and the United States emerged as fast-growing import suppliers

Beyond the Ukraine-Belarus story, two other partners saw dramatic growth. Serbian imports grew from €191,601 to €2.4 million (+1,146%), while US imports surged from €108,312 to €6.3 million (+5,695%). The US figure is particularly striking and likely reflects a combination of rising global demand for North American timber and re-routing of wood supply chains. These shifts diversified the EU's import base and reduced its dependence on any single supplier.

2.3 The United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's dominant export market

On the export side, the United Kingdom absorbed the lion's share of EU exports, growing from €16.1 million in 2015 to €36.7 million in 2025 (+128.6%). By 2025, the UK accounted for roughly 65% of total EU export value in this segment. Switzerland (€5.4M → €8.0M, +47%) and Norway (€2.8M → €2.6M, –7%) were distant second and third. The UK's dominance likely reflects its geographic proximity, linguistic and regulatory ties (notably in Ireland), and post-Brexit demand for EU-sourced wood products. However, price shock data reveals significant volatility: UK import prices spiked abnormally in 2021 (abnormality score: 32.5, shift: +127.3%), and UK export prices surged in 2022 (abnormality: 15.0, shift: +172.3%). These shocks were the largest detected in the dataset and likely reflect post-Brexit customs frictions and pandemic-related logistics disruptions.

2.4 Trade concentration increased on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose from 3,647 to 4,486 (+23%), indicating that exports became more concentrated — primarily toward the UK. Import concentration also increased slightly (HHI from 1,899 to 2,066, +8.8%), though the import side remains more diversified. The export HHI levels are in the "moderately concentrated" range by standard thresholds, suggesting a degree of market dependence on the UK that could pose risks if that trade relationship were disrupted.

Source: Concentration HHI

3. Baltic States Dominate Production and Trade, While Specialisation Diverges Within the EU

Within the EU, the export and import landscape for CN 4404 is heavily shaped by the Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania) and Poland. These countries are the primary producers and exporters of rough wooden sticks and stakes, benefiting from large forest resources and established wood-processing industries.

3.1 Latvia is the EU's undisputed leader in this segment

Latvia's export value grew from €12.3 million to €27.9 million (+126.3%), making it the single largest EU exporter in CN 4404 — accounting for roughly half of total EU exports. Latvia also saw its import activity rise from €3.9 million to €8.7 million (+120.3%). The country's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 20.5 and normalised RSCA of 0.91 confirm an extremely high specialisation in this product relative to its overall trade profile — the highest in the EU. Latvia is effectively a wood-exporting powerhouse for this segment.

Source: Specialisation, Top reporters

3.2 Poland emerged as a major exporter despite lower specialisation

Poland's exports grew from €669,242 to €4.1 million (+513%), the fastest growth rate among large EU exporters. With an RCA of 5.03 and RSCA of 0.67, Poland has a clear comparative advantage, though far less pronounced than the Baltics. Poland's large overall trade volume (accounting for 33% of EU production in this segment) means that even a modest specialisation translates into substantial absolute volumes. Poland also saw its imports rise from €921,276 to €3.3 million (+260%), suggesting it also functions as a processing and re-export hub.

3.3 Ireland shows a paradox of high trade volume but near-zero specialisation

Ireland's case is instructive: its exports surged from €268,041 to €2.2 million (+703%), and imports grew from €4.3 million to €8.7 million (+104%). Yet Ireland's RCA is just 0.014 and its RSCA is –0.97, indicating virtually no specialisation. This apparent paradox is explained by Ireland's large overall trade volume — it participates substantially in CN 4404 trade in absolute terms, but this segment represents a negligible fraction of its total trade basket. Ireland likely functions as a transhipment point, particularly given its role as a bridge between the EU and the UK market.

3.4 EU production capacity expanded significantly over the decade

EU-wide production of rough wooden sticks and stakes grew from 1.69 million m³ (€174 million) in 2015 to 3.04 million m³ (€340 million) in 2025 — gains of 80% by volume and 95% by value. This expansion in domestic capacity helps explain why the EU shifted from a net importer to a net exporter: rising production reduced the need for imports while creating surplus for export. The production growth also aligns with broader EU policy objectives around forest-based bioeconomy and domestic supply security.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 4404 (rough wooden sticks, stakes, and related products) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three defining dynamics emerge from the data:

1. Price-driven value growth amid volume stagnation: Import volumes fell by 21% while import values rose by 72%, driven entirely by unit price inflation of 118%. Export values nearly doubled with only modest volume growth. The post-2021 price surge — affecting both flows but especially imports — reflects global supply chain disruptions, energy cost increases, and the redirection of wood trade flows away from Russia and Belarus following geopolitical events.

2. A structural shift from net importer to net exporter: The EU flipped from a 3% net import reliance to a small net export surplus, supported by an 80% expansion in domestic production capacity. This shift was gradual through 2018 and then accelerated, suggesting that EU policy and market forces jointly supported the build-up of domestic supply.

3. Concentration risks alongside geographic diversification of imports: While import sources diversified — with Ukraine, Serbia, and the United States rising to prominence — export concentration toward the United Kingdom intensified (HHI rising from 3,647 to 4,486). The UK now absorbs roughly two-thirds of EU export value, creating a dependency that could prove vulnerable to future trade policy changes. The Baltic States, led by Latvia, remain the backbone of EU production and export in this segment, with Poland emerging as a significant growth story.

Looking ahead, the interplay between EU domestic production capacity, geopolitical supply chain realignments, and the sustainability of UK demand will be the key variables shaping this market. The sharp price inflation observed across the decade, if sustained, could further incentivise EU domestic production while potentially dampening import demand from cost-sensitive buyers.