Market evolution: Rough wood (CN 440399) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU customs code 440399, which covers residual categories of wood in the rough — species not separately classified such as conifers, tropical wood, oak, beech, birch, poplar, aspen, and eucalyptus. The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 based on annual data for EU trade with non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU's trade position in this product category underwent a profound transformation, shifting from a substantial net import deficit to a net export surplus, driven primarily by geopolitical shocks and supply chain reorientation.

I. A Structural Reversal: From Net Importer to Net Exporter

The most striking feature of the period is a complete reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU ran a trade deficit of €194.8 million on CN 440399. By 2025, this had turned into a surplus of €102.3 million. This shift was not primarily driven by growing export competitiveness, but rather by the near-total collapse of imports.

Import volumes collapsed by 98% over the decade

EU imports of rough wood under CN 440399 fell from 5,982,955 tonnes in 2015 to just 128,468 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 97.9%. In value terms, imports dropped from €308.5 million to €44.8 million (–85.5%). The trade overview shows this decline was not gradual but concentrated in sharp steps.

Export values held up despite falling volumes

EU exports declined in volume from 1,042,926 tonnes to 598,397 tonnes (–42.6%), yet export value rose from €113.7 million to €147.1 million (+29.4%). This was entirely a price effect: the unit export price surged from €109/t to €246/t (+125.5%). The trade overview confirms this reflects broader global timber price inflation rather than a shift toward higher-value species within this residual code.

The trade balance swung by over €297 million

The combined effect of collapsing imports and rising export values converted a €194.8 million deficit (2015) into a €102.3 million surplus (2025). This reversal positions the EU as a net supplier of residual rough wood categories to global markets — a notable structural change from the beginning of the period.

II. Geopolitical Supply Shocks Redefined the Import Landscape

The dramatic import decline was overwhelmingly driven by the cessation of flows from Russia and, to a lesser extent, Belarus and Ukraine. These three countries were the EU's primary sources of this product category in 2015; by 2025, their role had been virtually eliminated.

Russia's supply was cut entirely

In 2015, the Russian Federation was by far the EU's largest import source for CN 440399, supplying €195.2 million — representing 63% of all imports by value. By 2025, this figure had fallen to just €256, effectively a complete supply shock. The data shows the shock occurred around 2019, well before the full implementation of EU sanctions on Russian timber in 2022, suggesting that preliminary trade restrictions or anticipatory behaviour began earlier. A price shock of +957.6% abnormality was detected in 2018, preceding the supply cutoff.

These top import partners illustrate the magnitude of the supply disruption.

Belarus and Ukraine followed the same trajectory

Belarus, the second-largest supplier in 2015 at €27.3 million, saw imports collapse to €1.4 million (–94.8%). Ukraine's imports fell from €8.6 million to approximately €11,000 (–99.9%). Both declines reflect the broader geopolitical disruption of Eastern European timber supply chains.

Switzerland and the US partially filled the gap, but at much smaller scale

The remaining suppliers could not compensate for the loss. Switzerland's imports remained relatively stable, growing modestly from €8.2 million to €9.0 million (+9.0%). Imports from the United States fell from €47.1 million to €25.9 million (–45.0%). Norway also declined by 40.9%. No single partner emerged to replace the scale of Russian supply, indicating that the EU effectively absorbed the supply loss through reduced domestic consumption or substitution with other wood categories.

III. Export Reorientation: Asia Replaced Traditional Markets

On the export side, the EU's trade patterns shifted significantly toward Asian markets, while some traditional destinations contracted sharply. This reorientation was accompanied by a notable increase in export concentration.

Vietnam became the EU's top export destination

The most dramatic shift in exports was toward Vietnam. In 2015, the EU exported €27.2 million of CN 440399 to Vietnam; by 2025, this had surged to €98.2 million (+261.2%), making it the largest single export partner. Hong Kong also saw explosive growth, rising from €371,000 to €4.0 million (+981.5%). These flows likely reflect growing demand from East Asian wood processing industries.

China's role diminished but remained significant

China, the largest export destination in 2015 at €53.8 million, saw its share decline by 46.9% to €28.6 million. However, it remained the second-largest market. The decline may reflect China's own trade tensions and shifting sourcing strategies rather than EU-specific factors.

Export concentration increased substantially

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value rose from 2,962 to 4,867 (+64.3%). This indicates that exports became significantly more concentrated among fewer partners, primarily due to the growing dominance of Vietnam and the decline of smaller markets like Morocco and Türkiye. In contrast, import concentration decreased from 4,335 to 3,825 (–11.8%), reflecting the diversification away from the previously dominant Russian supply.

Conclusion

The EU market for residual rough wood (CN 440399) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The defining event was the near-total cessation of imports from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, which collectively accounted for over €230 million in 2015 and virtually nothing by 2025. This geopolitical supply shock converted the EU from a major net importer into a net exporter. On the export side, demand shifted decisively toward Asia, with Vietnam emerging as the dominant destination. Prices rose sharply on both import and export sides, reflecting global timber market inflation. The market that emerged in 2025 — smaller in volume, higher in unit value, and more concentrated in both origin and destination — bears little resemblance to the one that existed at the start of the period.