Market evolution: Refrigerated display cases (CN 84185019) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in refrigerated show-cases and counters (excluding those for frozen food storage) over the period 2015–2025. The product, classified under CN 84185019, encompasses commercial refrigeration furniture used primarily in the food retail, hospitality, and catering sectors. The analysis draws on EU-27 trade flows with extra-EU partners, covering imports, exports, partner concentration, supply volatility, and structural vulnerability. Over the decade, the EU's position in this market has shifted substantially: what was once a comfortable trade surplus eroded as imports surged, only partially offset by continued export growth. The following sections detail the main dynamics underlying this transformation.

1. A widening trade deficit driven by the import boom

1.1. Exports grew in value but stagnated in volume

EU exports of refrigerated display cases rose from €441 million in 2015 to €548 million in 2025, representing a cumulative increase of 24.2% in value. However, the tonnage shipped abroad actually declined by 7.2% over the same period (from roughly 50,000 tonnes to 46,300 tonnes). This divergence indicates that the value growth was largely price-driven: the average export price per tonne rose 33.9%, from €8,827/t to €11,822/t. In supplementary-unit terms, exports of individual items increased by 9.1% (from 454,000 to 495,000 pieces), suggesting a shift towards lighter but higher-value units rather than a decline in market engagement.

1.2. Imports nearly tripled in value and doubled in volume

The most dramatic shift in the period was the explosion of imports. EU import value rose from €214 million to €507 million (+136.7%), while import tonnage climbed from 53,000 to 100,500 tonnes (+89.5%). The import price per tonne increased by 24.9% (from €4,036/t to €5,042/t), but the bulk of the value growth came from the sheer expansion of physical volumes. In supplementary-unit terms, the number of items imported surged by 92.0% (from 806,000 to 1.55 million pieces), confirming a genuine increase in market penetration rather than merely heavier products.

1.3. The EU trade balance swung from surplus to near-parity

At the start of the period, the EU held a comfortable trade surplus of €227 million in this product. By 2025, the surplus had shrunk to just €41 million — a collapse of 81.9%. The net import reliance indicator confirms this trajectory: in 2015 the EU was a modest net importer by reliance (+4.7%), but by 2025 the figure stood at −1.0%, and at its worst point it dipped to −11.5%, indicating that in at least one year the EU was a significant net importer. The price premium of EU exports over imports (€11,822/t vs. €5,042/t in 2025) shows that the EU continues to occupy the higher end of the value chain, but its competitive edge in volume terms has been substantially eroded.

2. Shifting geography: China and Türkiye dominate imports while Russia collapses

2.1. China and Türkiye absorbed most of the import growth

The two largest sources of extra-EU imports — China and Türkiye — accounted for the lion's share of the import surge. Chinese shipments to the EU rose from €109 million to €260 million (+138.5%), while Turkish shipments grew from €72 million to €185 million (+155.0%). Together, these two origins accounted for €264 million of the €293 million increase in total import value between 2015 and 2025, or roughly 90% of the growth. The concentration of imports on these two partners remained high throughout the period.

2.2. Russian imports collapsed following geopolitical sanctions

EU imports from the Russian Federation fell from €7.6 million to just €133,000 — a decline of 98.3%. Russia had at its peak represented up to €53.6 million in imports in an intermediate year. The near-total collapse coincides with the sanctions regime imposed following 2022 and illustrates how geopolitical disruption can rapidly reshape supply chains in this sector. The associated volatility coefficient for Russian imports (0.67) confirms high instability over the period.

2.3. Emerging suppliers partially filled the gap

Several smaller suppliers experienced extraordinary growth rates over the period. Ukraine's exports to the EU grew by 531.1% (from €2.9 million to €18.5 million), Serbia's by 326.7%, and Thailand's by 676.9%. While these remain smaller in absolute terms than China or Türkiye, their rapid expansion suggests that the EU market is increasingly diversified at the margin. Nonetheless, the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index remained elevated (around 3,989 in 2025, up from 3,784 in 2015), indicating that import concentration actually tightened slightly despite the emergence of new suppliers.

2.4. EU exports remained geographically diversified

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest destination (€97 million, +39.0%), followed by Switzerland (€67 million, +48.1%) and the United States (€48 million, +81.4%). The export HHI remained low (685 in 2025), confirming that EU exporters serve a wide and relatively balanced set of markets. Notable declines included Australia (−43.0%) and the United Arab Emirates (−17.3%), suggesting some loss of competitive ground in distant or price-sensitive markets.

3. Italy anchors production while the EU's export specialisation remains strong

3.1. Italy dominates both EU production and EU exports

The market structure data reveals that Italy is by far the EU's most important producer and exporter of refrigerated display cases. With an RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) of 0.56, Italy accounts for 28.4% of EU production value and is the leading EU exporter (€252 million in 2025, up 10.9%). Romania (RSCA 0.75), Lithuania (0.61), Austria (0.52), and Czechia (0.46) also display strong specialisation. EU-wide production volume edged up slightly (from 680,000 to 690,000 tonnes, +1.5%), but production value declined from €1.47 billion to €1.26 billion (−14.3%), suggesting pricing pressures or a compositional shift towards lower-value segments within the EU domestic market.

3.2. The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter by the end of the period

Despite the import surge, EU export propensity (the share of domestic production sold abroad) increased from 35.8% to 38.6%, indicating that EU producers have become more export-oriented over time. Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) remained broadly stable at around 55%. The net import reliance flipped from +4.7% to −1.0% — meaning the EU ended the period as a marginal net exporter by value. However, the trajectory through the period was volatile, dipping as low as −11.5%, which underscores the structural vulnerability that emerged in the wake of the import boom.

3.3. A major supply shock on Chinese imports disrupted the market in 2022

The volatility analysis identifies a price shock on Chinese imports in 2022 with an abnormality score of 4.9 and a price shift of +92.7%, affecting flows that represent 62.5% of import value. This coincides with post-COVID supply chain disruptions and the energy price spike that elevated input costs globally. The shock is consistent with the broader pattern of rising import prices per tonne, which climbed from €3,451 (the minimum) to over €6,081 at their peak. A smaller price shock on EU exports to Saudi Arabia in 2023 (abnormality 3.8, +32.3%) was also flagged, though it affected a smaller share of trade.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for refrigerated display cases underwent a structural transformation. Imports more than doubled in both value and volume, led overwhelmingly by China and Türkiye, while exports grew in value but not in physical tonnage. The result was a dramatic erosion of the EU's trade surplus, from €227 million to just €41 million, with a temporary swing into deficit around 2022–2023.

Despite this shift, the EU retained a strong position in higher-value segments: the average EU export price per tonne (€11,822) remains more than double the import price (€5,042), and Italy — the EU's leading producer — continued to expand its export footprint. EU production volumes held steady, and the bloc's export propensity actually increased, ending the period as a marginal net exporter by value.

Key risks remain. Import concentration is high and rising (HHI ~3,989), the 2022 Chinese price shock exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, and geopolitical disruptions (notably the collapse of Russian supply) have redrawn the sourcing map. Looking ahead, the competitive balance between EU producers focused on premium, specialised equipment and low-cost Asian manufacturers will continue to define this market's trajectory.