Market evolution: Raw hides and skins (CN 4103) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 4103 — a residual category covering "Other raw hides and skins" that excludes the major commodity lines of bovine, equine, and sheep/lamb hides (CN 4101, 4102). It encompasses raw reptile skins (410320), raw swine hides (410330), and a broader catch-all of other raw hides and skins including birdskins (410390). The analysis covers the period from 2015 to 2025 and is based exclusively on the trade data provided.

Over the eleven-year window, EU trade in this product category has undergone a profound structural transformation. The bloc has shifted from a moderate exporter to a heavily import-dependent market, with trade volumes contracting sharply on both sides of the ledger while unit values — particularly on the import side — have surged. These dynamics reflect a combination of global sourcing shifts, changing domestic demand patterns, and growing concentration among a small number of supplier nations.

I. A Decade of Trade Contraction on Both Sides

Export volumes and values have collapsed across the period

The EU's exports of CN 4103 to non-EU countries have fallen dramatically between 2015 and 2025. Export value declined from €29.3 million to €5.7 million, a drop of 80.7%. Export volumes fell by 59.5%, from 15,301 tonnes to 6,201 tonnes. Average export prices also halved, declining from €1,916 per tonne to €911 per tonne (−52.5%), suggesting that the remaining exports are increasingly composed of lower-value product segments.

The decline was not linear: volumes remained relatively stable through 2018 (around 13,000–15,000 tonnes) before entering a sustained downward trend, reaching their trough in 2025. The general trade overview shows that the minimum export value was recorded in 2025.

Import volumes have also declined, but values have proven more resilient

EU imports of CN 4103 fell even more steeply in volume terms — from 4,730 tonnes to 1,765 tonnes (−62.7%) — but the decline in import value was far more moderate, from €168.2 million to €148.6 million (−11.7%). This divergence is explained by a dramatic increase in the average import price, which rose from €35,552 per tonne in 2015 to €84,161 per tonne in 2025, an increase of 136.7%.

The following table summarises the key trade indicators over the period:

Source: Trade overview

The trade deficit has remained persistent despite volume compression

The EU has maintained a structural deficit in CN 4103 throughout the period. The trade balance ranged from a peak deficit of €98.0 million (in a year with relatively lower import values) to a trough of €171.8 million. By 2025, the deficit stood at €142.9 million, essentially unchanged from 2015 (−2.9%). However, this apparent stability masks a fundamental shift: the deficit is now sustained by far fewer tonnes entering at much higher prices, pointing to the growing weight of high-value niche products — most likely reptile skins — in the EU's import basket.

II. Shifting Partners, Growing Concentration, and the Rise of High-Value Sourcing

The United States has consolidated its position as the dominant import source

Among EU import partners, the United States stands out as the single largest and most stable supplier. Imports from the US held at approximately €73 million across the period, fluctuating within a relatively narrow band (€59.6M–€94.5M). This stability, amid collapsing volumes elsewhere, means the US share of total EU imports has grown substantially.

Australia has emerged as the second major partner, with imports rising from €22.5 million to €32.1 million (+43.0%). Together, the US and Australia accounted for the vast majority of EU import value by 2025.

Several smaller suppliers have experienced dramatic declines

In contrast, several previously significant suppliers have seen their trade with the EU virtually disappear:

Source: Top partners

The collapse of imports from Viet Nam, Colombia, Honduras, and several Balkan/Western Balkan countries likely reflects a combination of declining global availability of certain raw hide types, tighter domestic regulations in source countries (particularly regarding traceability and sustainability of reptile and exotic skins), and possibly the effects of the EU's evolving due diligence requirements.

China was once the EU's largest export market; it has since evaporated

On the export side, China was by far the EU's largest destination in 2015, absorbing €18.7 million of EU exports. By 2025, this had fallen to just €1.3 million (−93.2%). This collapse accounts for the bulk of the EU's overall export decline and likely reflects shifting sourcing patterns in China's own leather processing industry, as well as broader geopolitical and trade policy developments.

Cambodia has emerged as a notable alternative market, with exports growing from €93,000 to €781,000 (+741%), while Nigeria also expanded from €114,000 to €224,000 (+97%). However, these gains are far too small to compensate for the loss of the Chinese market.

Source: Top partners

Import concentration has increased while export markets have diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms this pattern. Import concentration by value rose from 2,411 to 3,253 (+34.9%), indicating that the EU is now more reliant on a smaller set of supplier countries than it was a decade ago. This is consistent with the consolidation around the US and Australia.

Conversely, export concentration by value fell sharply from 4,355 to 1,335 (−69.3%). This is largely a mechanical consequence of the collapse of the formerly dominant Chinese market: with China's share shrinking, remaining exports are distributed more evenly across a range of smaller destination countries, even though total exports are much lower.

France and Germany dominate intra-EU import flows; Spain and Italy dominate exports

Among EU Member States, France consistently accounted for the largest share of extra-EU imports (€92.7M in 2025, down 11.2% from €104.4M in 2015). Germany, however, has more than doubled its import share, rising from €15.6M to €30.8M (+98.1%), reflecting Germany's growing role in processing niche raw hides. Italy's imports declined from €40.0M to €19.1M (−52.3%), suggesting a restructuring of Italy's traditional leather industry.

On the export side, Spain (from €13.1M to €1.0M, −92.5%) and Italy (from €8.8M to €1.0M, −88.1%) saw their extra-EU exports collapse, while Bulgaria emerged as a notable exception with a fivefold increase (from €147K to €877K, +498%).

III. Product Composition, Market Vulnerability, and Price Shocks

Reptile skins dominate by value; swine hides and other skins form the volume base

The product segment breakdown reveals that the three sub-categories of CN 4103 behave very differently.

Imports by sub-category:

Source: Product segment breakdown

Raw reptile skins (CN 410320) overwhelmingly dominate by value, accounting for 97% of all CN 4103 import value in 2025 (€144.3M out of €148.6M). Their average import price of nearly €219,000 per tonne is orders of magnitude higher than the other sub-categories, explaining the dramatic overall import price increase observed in Section I. Reptile skin volumes have been relatively stable (660–890 tonnes per year), with prices trending upward — from €191,000/t in 2015 to €219,000/t in 2025.

Swine hides (CN 410330), by contrast, have largely exited the EU's external trade. Import volumes fell from 1,968 tonnes to just 187 tonnes, and values collapsed from €1.5M to €55,000. This likely reflects the EU's strong domestic pig production and self-sufficiency in swine hides, with external trade becoming marginal.

The "other" category (CN 410390, including birdskins) saw import volumes fluctuate significantly — peaking at over 14,200 tonnes in 2022 before falling back to 919 tonnes in 2025 — suggesting episodic rather than structural trade in this segment.

EU reliance on extra-EU sources has intensified

The net import reliance indicator tells a striking story: the EU's dependence on external supplies for CN 4103 has more than doubled, rising from 22.2% in 2015 to 52.8% in 2025 (+137.9%). This is despite — or perhaps because of — declining domestic production.

EU domestic production data shows item counts rising slightly from 666,000 to 785,000 pieces (+17.8%), but production value falling by 51.3% from €1.54 million to €0.75 million. This combination of rising unit volumes and declining total value suggests that EU domestic production is increasingly concentrated in lower-value raw hide types, while the EU has become structurally dependent on imports of high-value exotic skins — above all, reptile skins from the Americas and Australasia.

The export propensity indicator also surged by 132.7%, rising from 280% to 652%. This apparent paradox — rising export propensity alongside falling exports — is explained by the denominator: EU domestic consumption has declined even faster than exports. The EU's role as a re-exporter of raw hides has diminished, but its domestic absorption has contracted more rapidly still.

Price volatility has been extreme in certain bilateral flows, with notable shocks detected

Volatility analysis reveals that import price volatility is highly concentrated in a few bilateral relationships. The coefficient of variation (CV) for import prices from Viet Nam (1.40), Indonesia (1.53), and Colombia (1.36) is very high, reflecting the episodic and unstable nature of these trade flows. By contrast, the US import CV is just 0.14, confirming its role as a stable anchor supplier.

On the export side, the highest volatility is observed in flows to India (CV: 1.40) and Cambodia (CV: 1.15), both relatively small and irregular trade relationships.

Three supply shocks were detected during the period:

The most significant shock was a price spike in imports from Viet Nam in 2023, with an abnormality index of 614.7 and an extraordinary price shift of +8,741%. This likely reflects a small-volume, high-value transaction (possibly a shipment of rare or exotic skins) that distorted the average price for that year, given that Viet Nam's share of total import value was only 5.9%. The Mexico supply shock in 2024 (a complete cessation of imports) is consistent with the broader trend of supplier base erosion.

Conclusion

The EU trade in CN 4103 raw hides and skins over 2015–2025 has undergone a fundamental restructuring. The market has become smaller in volume, more concentrated in sourcing, more expensive per unit, and significantly more dependent on extra-EU suppliers. The key dynamics can be summarised as follows:

1. Volume collapse on both sides. EU exports of raw hides and skins have fallen by 60–80% in volume and value, driven primarily by the loss of the Chinese market. Import volumes have declined by a similar magnitude, but import values have been sustained by a dramatic shift toward high-value reptile skins.

2. The reptile skin economy. Raw reptile skins now account for 97% of EU import value in this category, at an average price of nearly €219,000 per tonne. This niche product line — supplied predominantly by the US, Australia, and a handful of other countries — has fundamentally altered the economics of EU trade in CN 4103.

3. Structural vulnerability. With net import reliance rising from 22% to 53%, import concentration increasing, and domestic production shifting toward lower-value output, the EU has become more exposed to supply disruptions in a small number of critical bilateral relationships. The 2023 Viet Nam price shock — while likely an isolated event — underscores the fragility of this concentrated trade structure.

Looking ahead, the continued availability and pricing of reptile skins will be the single most important factor shaping this market. Regulatory developments (particularly the EU's evolving frameworks on deforestation-free supply chains and wildlife trade), changing fashion trends affecting demand for exotic leathers, and the sustainability policies of source countries will all play a role in determining whether the current import-dependent model is sustainable over the next decade.