Market evolution: Quilted textiles (CN 5811) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in CN 5811 — quilted textile products in the piece, composed of one or more layers of textile materials assembled with padding by stitching or otherwise (excluding embroidery of heading 5810 and quilted fabrics for bedding and furnishings). Over the 2015–2025 period, the European Union has remained a consistent net exporter in this product category. However, beneath this aggregate stability lie significant structural shifts: a marked divergence in unit prices between exports and imports, a reshuffling of key trading partners — partly driven by Brexit — and growing concentration on the import side. At the same time, the EU's export base has become more geographically diversified, and intra-EU specialisation has deepened, with Poland emerging as the bloc's leading exporter. The analysis below draws on trade overview data, partner-level breakdowns, concentration metrics, volatility indicators, and vulnerability measures.

1. Growing export value, stable volumes: the price-driven expansion

EU export value increased by over 30% despite flat tonnage

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of quilted textiles rose from €24.3 million to €31.9 million, an increase of 31.4%. Yet, measured in tonnes, export volumes barely moved — from 1,794 t to 1,799 t, a change of just 0.2%. This disconnect signals that the entire increase in export value was driven by higher unit prices rather than by greater physical output shipped abroad. The average export price per tonne climbed from €13,531/t to €17,733/t (+31.1%), peaking at the end of the period. Measured in square metres — a supplementary unit more directly relevant to textile products — exports grew more substantially, from 5.98 million m² to 8.18 million m² (+36.7%), suggesting a shift towards lighter, area-efficient products over time.

Imports surged in volume while their value eroded

The import trajectory tells a mirror-image story. In nominal terms, EU imports actually declined from €9.0 million to €8.2 million (–8.6%). However, this masks a 66.0% increase in imported tonnage (from 1,093 t to 1,814 t) and a 52.3% rise in supplementary quantity (from 3.58 million m² to 5.46 million m²). The import price collapsed from €8,215/t to €4,523/t, a decline of 44.9%. In other words, the EU is importing substantially more quilted textile material by volume, but at sharply lower unit values — consistent with a sourcing shift towards lower-cost producing countries.

The trade balance widened significantly

As a result of these diverging trends, the EU's trade surplus in CN 5811 expanded from €15.3 million in 2015 to €23.7 million in 2025, an increase of 54.8%. The net import reliance — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — deepened from –4.8% to –7.4% (–55.0% change), confirming that the EU's competitive position in this niche strengthened over the decade, at least in value terms.

2. A reshaped partner landscape: Brexit, China's rise, and Turkey's dual role

China consolidated its position as the EU's primary import supplier

Among import partners, China saw the most striking growth. EU imports from China nearly doubled in value, rising from €2.16 million in 2015 to €4.23 million in 2025 (+96.0%), reaching a peak of €5.04 million along the way. By 2025, China accounted for over half of all extra-EU imports by value, up from roughly a quarter at the start of the period. This growing dominance is consistent with a broader pattern in textile intermediates, where Chinese manufacturers supply cost-competitive quilted materials to EU downstream industries.

The United Kingdom's exit from the EU single market caused a structural trade collapse

The most dramatic shift in the import partner data is the near-disappearance of the United Kingdom as a source. EU imports from the UK fell from €2.65 million in 2015 to just €0.19 million in 2025, a collapse of 92.7%. This decline began accelerating from 2020 onwards, directly coinciding with the UK's departure from the EU customs union and single market. Prior to Brexit, the UK was the single largest import source; by 2025, it had been reduced to a marginal supplier. This represents one of the most pronounced Brexit-related trade disruptions visible in this product category.

Türkiye and emerging Balkan/Maghreb suppliers filled part of the gap

Several mid-sized import partners partially compensated for the UK's retreat. Imports from Türkiye grew from €1.13 million to €1.39 million (+23.2%), though they peaked at €2.79 million in an earlier year, suggesting some volatility. More strikingly, Bosnia and Herzegovina emerged from near-zero imports (€22K in 2015) to €232K in 2025 (+976%), and Morocco similarly grew from €5K to €43K (+834%). India also expanded its share, with imports rising from €276K to €500K (+81.4%). These shifts point to a diversification of the EU's import base away from traditional Western partners towards lower-cost regions, albeit from small initial bases.

EU exports shifted towards Türkiye and the Caucasus, while traditional near-shoring partners declined

On the export side, the most notable growth was in exports to Türkiye, which surged from €0.65 million to €3.83 million (+489%). This is striking because Türkiye is simultaneously a major import source, suggesting a deeply integrated, bidirectional supply chain — likely involving EU firms sending quilted textiles for further processing or assembly in Türkiye, with finished or semi-finished goods returning to the EU. Similarly, Armenia saw explosive export growth from €159K to €4.36 million (+2,637%), reflecting growing EU textile supply chains to the South Caucasus. Exports to North Macedonia also rose strongly (+173%).

Conversely, exports to Moldova fell from €3.62 million to €1.89 million (–47.7%), and exports to Morocco and Bosnia and Herzegovina declined by 53.5% and 65.9% respectively. These three countries are typical near-shoring destinations for EU textile firms; the decline may reflect either maturation of local production capacity (reducing the need for EU-sourced intermediates) or a reorientation of supply chains towards Asia.

3. Concentration, specialisation, and rising import vulnerability

Import sourcing became markedly more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,981 to 3,141 over the period, an increase of 58.5%. In terms of volume, the HHI also climbed from 2,413 to 3,290 (+36.3%). While these values still fall below the conventional 2,500 threshold for "highly concentrated" markets (by value, the starting point was below this threshold), the sharp upward trend indicates a significant reduction in supplier diversification. The primary driver is China's growing share, combined with the collapse of UK imports — the combined effect concentrating a larger share of imports among fewer origins.

Export markets, by contrast, became slightly more diversified

The export HHI by value edged down from 855 to 780 (–8.7%), and by volume from 1,242 to 1,043 (–16.0%). The relatively low level of these indices — well below 1,500 — indicates a broadly diversified export base. The modest improvement reflects the decline of formerly dominant destinations (Moldova, Morocco, Bosnia) and the rise of new ones (Türkiye, Armenia, North Macedonia), effectively smoothing the distribution of EU exports across a wider set of partners.

Italy is the EU's most specialised producer; Poland has emerged as the leading exporter

According to specialisation data for 2025, Italy leads EU member states in revealed comparative advantage (RCA = 5.10) and holds the highest RSCA score (0.67). Italy accounts for 40.9% of EU production in this product category, confirming its central role. Slovakia (RCA = 3.06), Estonia (3.70), and Lithuania (3.58) also display strong specialisation, though from much smaller production bases.

Yet the export data tells a different story about which countries actually ship the most abroad. Poland's extra-EU exports surged from €2.2 million in 2015 to €9.2 million in 2025 (+310%), making it the EU's single largest exporter in this category — surpassing Italy (€4.4M), Slovakia (€6.4M), and France (€3.8M). This suggests Poland has become a major production and re-export hub, possibly benefiting from lower labour costs and proximity to both EU and non-EU markets. Slovakia, Italy, and France also maintained strong export positions, while Spain (–40.2%), Germany (–43.1%), and Slovenia (–60.7%) saw significant declines.

EU production grew strongly in volume but more modestly in value

EU-wide production of quilted textiles measured in square metres grew from 27.3 million m² in 2015 to 96.0 million m² in 2025 (+251.9%), while production value rose more modestly from €308.9 million to €345.0 million (+11.7%). This divergence — rapid volume growth alongside modest value growth — suggests that EU producers are increasingly manufacturing lighter, lower-unit-value quilted textiles, or that production has shifted towards applications where less material weight per square metre is required.

Price shocks flagged supply-side disruptions for key partners

The volatility analysis identified two notable shock events. First, EU imports from Türkiye experienced a sharp price shock in 2022, with an abnormality score of 17.6 and a price shift of +32.9%, affecting 22.5% of import value. This likely reflects post-COVID cost pressures, energy price spikes, or currency dynamics affecting Turkish producers. Second, EU exports to Morocco saw a price shock in 2023 (abnormality 5.5, shift +125.0%, affecting 12.2% of export value), potentially linked to changing demand conditions or product-mix shifts in Moroccan offshoring operations.

Export propensity and trade intensity confirmed the EU's outward orientation

The EU's trade intensity (extra-EU trade as a share of production) rose from 8.9% to 12.6% (+40.8%), while export propensity increased from 6.9% to 9.9% (+45.0%). These figures indicate that while the bulk of EU production serves intra-EU and domestic markets, the sector's exposure to international markets has grown meaningfully. The export propensity salience score (85.1%) exceeded that of trade intensity (78.2%), underscoring that the outward-facing dimension of this sector has been its most dynamic feature.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade position in quilted textiles (CN 5811) has strengthened in aggregate value terms, with the trade surplus widening to €23.7 million by 2025. However, the underlying dynamics are more nuanced than the headline figure suggests. Export value growth has been driven almost entirely by rising unit prices rather than by volume expansion, while import volumes have surged 66% even as import values declined — reflecting a structural shift towards lower-cost sourcing, particularly from China.

The partner landscape has been reshaped by geopolitical and regulatory events. Brexit effectively eliminated the UK as an import source, and China filled much of the resulting gap, raising concentration concerns on the import side. On the export front, the EU has diversified away from traditional near-shoring partners in the Western Balkans and North Africa towards Türkiye, Armenia, and North Macedonia — a reorientation that may reflect evolving supply chain strategies in the European textile sector. The bidirectional trade with Türkiye, in particular, points to deeply integrated processing chains.

Within the EU, Italy remains the most specialised and largest producer, but Poland has emerged as the bloc's leading exporter, suggesting a shift in production geography towards Central Europe. The growing gap between production volume and production value further indicates a sector that is expanding in scale but compressing in margins.

Looking ahead, the rising concentration of import sourcing — with China now accounting for over half of extra-EU imports — presents a potential vulnerability, particularly as geopolitical tensions and supply chain resilience concerns remain elevated. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to monitor this concentration trend and consider diversification strategies to mitigate single-source risk.