Market evolution: Pure-bred horses (CN 010121) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in pure-bred breeding horses (customs code 010121) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on annual trade data for EU imports from and exports to non-EU countries, covering value (EUR), mass (tonnes), and supplementary unit counts (number of items). Pure-bred breeding horses occupy a niche but economically significant segment of the live animals trade, driven by the sport-horse and racing industries. Three main dynamics emerge from the data: a structural divergence between volume growth and price erosion on the export side, the overwhelming dominance of the United Kingdom as a trading partner, and a striking shift in the supplementary unit data that points to either a classification change or a fundamental transformation in the type of animals being traded.

1. A Market of Growing Volume and Diverging Prices

The overall trajectory of EU trade in pure-bred breeding horses over the decade is one of rising trade values and quantities, but with a notable divergence in price dynamics between exports and imports.

1.1 Exports: More horses, lower unit prices

EU exports of pure-bred breeding horses grew substantially over the period, rising in value from approximately €427 million in 2015 to €547 million in 2025 (+28.0%). Export volumes measured in tonnes grew even faster, from 3,475 tonnes to 5,488 tonnes (+58.0%). This implies that the average weight per shipment increased—possibly reflecting a shift toward heavier breeds or fuller-grown animals. However, the export unit price in EUR per tonne declined markedly, from €122,889/t to €99,605/t (−18.9%). In other words, the EU exported significantly more volume but received less value per unit of weight. The minimum price point was reached at €81,311/t, suggesting a trough in the export price cycle.

1.2 Imports: Steady growth with rising unit prices

EU imports followed a different pattern. Import value rose from €338 million to €400 million (+18.4%), while imported volume in tonnes grew more modestly from 2,308 tonnes to 2,475 tonnes (+7.2%). Crucially, the import unit price increased over the period, from €146,494/t to €161,730/t (+10.4%). This indicates that the horses imported into the EU became, on average, more expensive per unit of mass—consistent with a shift toward premium bloodlines or competition-ready animals.

1.3 The trade balance strengthened

Despite the price divergence, the EU's trade surplus in this product widened considerably. The trade balance moved from a surplus of approximately €89 million in 2015 to €146 million in 2025 (+64.7%), with a peak of €229 million in a mid-period year. This reflects the fact that export value growth outpaced import value growth, even though export prices fell. The volume advantage was decisive: the EU exported roughly twice the tonnage it imported by 2025.

2. The United Kingdom at the Heart of EU Horse Trade

The single most striking feature of the data is the overwhelming concentration of trade flows between the EU and the United Kingdom. The UK dominates both the import and export sides, and its position has generally strengthened over the period.

2.1 The UK accounts for the vast majority of bilateral flows

On the import side, the UK supplied €264 million of the EU's €338 million in imports in 2015 (78%), rising to €332 million of €400 million in 2025 (83%). On the export side, the UK absorbed €270 million of the EU's €427 million in exports in 2015 (63%), rising dramatically to €420 million of €547 million in 2025 (77%). The UK's share of EU exports thus increased by 14 percentage points over the decade, while its import share rose by 5 percentage points.

2.2 A major price shock in the UK import channel

A notable price shock was detected in imports from the United Kingdom in 2021, with an abnormality score of 2.3 and a price shift of −43.1%. Given that the UK accounts for 84.5% of import value, this event is likely linked to the disruption caused by Brexit—specifically, the end of the transition period on 1 January 2021 and the new customs and veterinary certification requirements that followed. The sharp but temporary drop in UK import prices may reflect a surge of lower-value horses traded ahead of or during the transition, or a short-term collapse in demand for premium animals due to regulatory uncertainty.

2.3 The US decline and emerging smaller partners

While the UK consolidated its position, the United States—formerly the EU's second-largest export destination—experienced a sharp decline. EU exports to the US fell from €104 million to €39 million (−62.0%), suggesting a significant loss of competitiveness or a shift in US sourcing patterns. Meanwhile, several smaller partners gained ground on the export side: Switzerland (+127.7%), Kyrgyzstan (+479.8%), and Libya (+825.8%) all showed very strong growth from low bases, indicating diversification into new geographic markets. On the import side, Norway (+99.8%) grew meaningfully, while Switzerland's contribution to EU imports fell sharply (−72.1%).

2.4 Ireland as the EU's trade hub

Within the EU, Ireland is by far the most specialised and largest member state in pure-bred horse trade. Irish imports rose from €244 million to €315 million (+29.1%), and Irish exports from €232 million to €323 million (+39.2%). France is the second-largest exporter, growing from €96 million to €140 million (+45.2%). In contrast, the Netherlands saw its exports collapse from €67 million to just €10 million (−85.1%), a dramatic decline that may reflect shifts in breeding stock flows or reclassification of trade. Belgium (+540.1%) and Spain (+705.1%) emerged as significant exporters by 2025, though from very low initial bases.

2.5 Rising concentration

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms the trend toward greater concentration. For exports, the HHI rose from 4,748 to 6,492 (+36.7%), driven primarily by the UK's growing dominance. For imports, the HHI increased more moderately from 6,402 to 7,070 (+10.4%). Both levels indicate a concentrated market, and the rising trend on the export side suggests increasing dependency on a single destination. This concentration represents a structural vulnerability: any disruption in UK demand—whether regulatory, economic, or disease-related—would have an outsized impact on the EU's export performance.

3. A Puzzling Explosion in Supplementary Unit Counts

Perhaps the most intriguing feature of the dataset is the dramatic divergence between the supplementary quantity (number of items) and the mass-based quantity for exports—a pattern that demands careful interpretation.

3.1 Export item counts surged over a thousand per cent

The supplementary quantity for EU exports—the number of items counted separately from tonnage—rose from 7,679 units in 2015 to 86,423 units in 2025, an increase of over 1,025%. Over the same period, the export value grew by only 28% and the mass-based volume by 58%. This implies that the number of horses exported increased roughly twelvefold, while their average weight and average price per horse both declined sharply.

3.2 Unit prices per horse collapsed

The supplementary unit price (value divided by number of items) for exports fell from approximately €55,606 per horse to just €6,325 per horse (−88.6%). This is a remarkable collapse and is difficult to reconcile with the category "pure-bred breeding horses" if the composition of traded animals had remained constant. A horse worth €6,325 on average would be far below the typical price for a registered pure-bred breeding animal, which normally commands tens of thousands of euros.

3.3 Possible explanations: reclassification or compositional shift

The most plausible explanation is a change in reporting practices or customs classification. One possibility is that foals, youngstock, or horses with partial pedigree documentation began to be classified under this code in greater numbers—perhaps following a change in customs interpretation or veterinary certification rules. Another possibility is that the supplementary unit data captures re-exports or transit flows that inflate the item count without a proportional increase in value. The fact that mass-based volumes grew much more moderately (+58%) than item counts (+1,025%) is consistent with the idea that many of the additional items were lighter animals (young horses or ponies) that contributed little to total tonnage.

3.4 Import-side pattern is more stable

On the import side, the supplementary quantity actually declined slightly from 5,346 items to 5,178 items (−3.1%), while the supplementary unit price rose from €63,243 to €77,291 (+22.2%). This more stable pattern suggests that the import channel did not experience the same compositional or classification shift, possibly because the UK—by far the largest supplier—maintained more consistent reporting practices. The import-side data thus provides a useful control: it shows what a "normal" evolution looks like for this product category, making the export-side explosion all the more striking.

3.5 A cautionary note on volatility

The volatility analysis reveals that several smaller trading partners exhibit very high coefficients of variation (CV > 1.0), including Algeria (CV = 2.08), Ukraine (CV = 1.01), and Canada (CV = 1.00) on the export or import side. This indicates that trade with these partners is highly episodic—likely involving occasional large shipments of competition or breeding stock rather than steady commercial flows. A separate price shock was detected in EU exports to Switzerland in 2023, with an abnormality of 7.9 and a price shift of +73.1%, suggesting a sudden spike in the value of horses sent to Swiss buyers—possibly linked to a particular auction or competition cycle.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in pure-bred breeding horses evolved along three main axes. First, the EU strengthened its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus rising to €146 million, driven by volume growth that more than compensated for falling export unit prices. Second, the market became increasingly concentrated around the United Kingdom, which absorbed 77% of EU exports and supplied 83% of EU imports by 2025—a level of bilateral dependency that carries both efficiency benefits and strategic risks, as the 2021 Brexit-related price shock demonstrated. Third, the supplementary unit data reveals a dramatic and largely unexplained surge in the number of exported items, with item counts rising over a thousand per cent while per-unit values collapsed to levels inconsistent with premium breeding stock. This pattern likely reflects a classification or compositional shift rather than a genuine market transformation, and it warrants further investigation by trade analysts and customs authorities. Taken together, the data paints a picture of a specialised but increasingly concentrated market—one in which Ireland and the United Kingdom are the indispensable nodes, and in which the definition of what constitutes a "pure-bred breeding horse" may be quietly expanding.