Market evolution: Pump parts (CN 841391) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in parts of pumps for liquids (Combined Nomenclature code 841391) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market characterized by a strong and growing EU specialization in high-value production, robust export growth, and a concurrent rise in import dependence, particularly from Asia. Despite a persistent and widening trade surplus, the EU's reliance on specific foreign suppliers has increased, introducing new dynamics in its supply chain structure.

I. EU's Specialized and Resilient Export Base

The EU maintains a strong competitive position in the global pump parts market, characterized by high-value exports and a growing domestic production sector. This is underpinned by significant national specialization within the bloc.

Export performance is defined by value growth rather than volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's export value increased by 15.8%, from €2.73 billion to €3.17 billion. However, exported quantity declined by 4.1% over the same period. This divergence is explained by a 20.7% increase in the unit export price, from €29,425 per tonne to €35,521 per tonne, indicating a shift towards higher-value-added products.

Production has expanded significantly, reinforcing export capacity

EU domestic production value for pump parts more than doubled, growing from €1.92 billion in 2015 to €3.96 billion in 2025 (a 106.4% increase). This robust growth in production aligns with the EU's high export propensity, which stood at 80.1% in 2025, indicating that a large share of this production is destined for international markets.

Specialization is concentrated in a few key member states

Not all EU members contribute equally to this export profile. In 2025, Denmark, Italy, and Germany exhibited the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Germany alone accounted for 33.3% of the EU's total production value, underscoring its role as the bloc's industrial core for this sector.

II. Shifting Import Landscape and Growing External Dependency

While the EU is a net exporter, its import requirements have grown substantially, leading to an increase in overall trade intensity and a diversification of sourcing towards emerging economies.

Import growth outpaces exports, driven by volume and value

EU imports of pump parts grew by 21.2% in value (from €1.41 billion to €1.71 billion) and by 18.7% in volume between 2015 and 2025. Consequently, the EU's trade intensity ratio (total trade as a share of production) rose to 85.9%, highlighting the sector's deep integration into global supply chains.

China and other Asian economies have become dominant import sources

The composition of EU imports has shifted markedly. China's share saw the most dramatic increase, with imports rising by 83.3% to €597.7 million. Similarly, imports from India grew by 136.0% to €162.9 million, and those from Türkiye by 92.5% to €141.6 million. In contrast, imports from the United Kingdom fell by 37.6%.

Import concentration has increased, pointing to strategic supply chain risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 41.5%, from 1,259 in 2015 to 1,782 in 2025. This increase indicates that EU imports have become more concentrated among fewer partners, primarily in Asia. This trend, combined with rising net import reliance (measured as a negative trade balance that widened to -€1.46 billion), suggests growing vulnerability to disruptions in specific regional supply networks.

III. Trade Volatility and Divergent Partnership Dynamics

Trade relationships in this sector exhibit varying degrees of stability and are subject to occasional price shocks, revealing the diverse risks embedded in the EU's commercial network.

Export partnerships show greater volatility than import sources

Analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) across key partners reveals that EU export flows are, on average, more volatile than import flows. For instance, exports to Russia (CV: 0.65), Australia (CV: 0.44), and Oman (CV: 0.41) show high year-to-year variability. On the import side, flows from the United Kingdom (CV: 0.49) and Serbia (CV: 0.45) are notably unstable.

Significant price shocks have been detected in specific markets

The data identifies notable abnormal price movements in certain trade corridors. The most severe was a 120.9% price spike in EU exports to Australia in 2021. A similar, though less extreme, price shock occurred in exports to Canada in 2022. These events, while not widespread, highlight the potential for sudden price disruptions in specific destination markets.

Key bilateral relationships have evolved along divergent paths

A closer look at major partners shows distinct trajectories. Trade with the United Kingdom, a historic partner, has declined significantly in both imports and exports since 2015, likely reflecting post-Brexit realignment. Conversely, trade with Türkiye and Serbia has grown robustly, with EU exports to Serbia increasing by 75.1%, indicating deepening regional integration.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's pump parts sector solidified its position as a high-value, specialized exporter with a strong production base. However, this period also witnessed a fundamental shift in the EU's import dependency. Sourcing has become more concentrated and oriented towards rapidly growing Asian economies, particularly China and India, increasing the bloc's strategic exposure to that region. While the EU maintains a healthy trade surplus, the combination of rising import reliance and supply chain concentration presents a nuanced picture of strength coupled with new vulnerabilities. Future policy and business strategy will need to balance the benefits of global sourcing with the risks of dependency in a critical industrial components market.