Market evolution: Plastic insulators (CN 854720) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in insulating fittings for electrical purposes, of plastics (Combined Nomenclature code 854720) over the 2015–2025 period. The product sits within the broader electrical machinery and equipment category and corresponds to PRODCOM code 27.33.14.30. Over the decade analysed, the EU consolidated its position as a strong net exporter of this product category, with trade surpluses nearly doubling in value. Three major dynamics emerge from the data: (1) a pronounced asymmetry between surging export volumes and stagnating imports, (2) a significant geographic reorientation of trade flows towards North African and Western Balkan partners, and (3) a growing structural self-sufficiency in production accompanied by increasing concentration risks in import sourcing.

The analysis draws on general trade overviews, partner-level data, EU Member State specialisation patterns, and vulnerability indicators available on the EU Trade Dashboard.

1. A Widening Trade Surplus Fueled by Value-Added Export Growth

The EU trade balance nearly doubled over the decade

The EU's trade surplus in CN 854720 grew from €542.3 million in 2015 to €1,031.2 million in 2025, an increase of 90.2%. This dramatic expansion was not simply the result of higher export volumes; it reflects a structural shift in the composition and pricing of EU trade flows in this sector.

Source: EU Trade Dashboard — General Overview

Export volumes grew strongly while import volumes stagnated

Export volumes rose by 29.8%, from approximately 42,745 tonnes to 55,491 tonnes, while import volumes remained essentially flat at around 21,150 tonnes (a marginal decline of 0.5%). This divergence is the primary mechanical driver of the widening surplus. The EU did not merely sell more in value terms—it shipped materially greater physical quantities abroad while absorbing virtually the same import volume as a decade earlier.

Unit values rose on both sides, but export prices exceeded import prices throughout the period

Unit export values increased from €21,304/t to €27,455/t (+28.9%), while import unit values rose from €17,325/t to €23,280/t (+34.4%). Throughout the entire period, EU export prices consistently exceeded import prices by a meaningful margin—roughly €4,000–5,000 per tonne in the most recent years. This persistent premium suggests that the EU specialises in higher-value, more technologically sophisticated plastic insulating fittings, while importing relatively more commoditised products.

EU production volumes expanded, reinforcing export capacity

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of plastic insulating fittings grew from 82,635 tonnes (first year) to 108,951 tonnes (last year), an increase of 31.8%. Production value grew more modestly, from €657.7 million to €678.3 million (+3.1%), indicating that unit production values may have compressed—possibly reflecting economies of scale or a shift in the product mix. The strong growth in production volume closely mirrors the growth in export volumes, suggesting that the EU's expanding production base was channelled primarily into external markets rather than domestic consumption.

Source: Production volumes

2. A Geographic Reorientation: North Africa Rises, the UK Fades

Morocco emerged as the most striking bilateral development

No single trade relationship changed as dramatically as that between the EU and Morocco in this product category. EU exports to Morocco surged from €109.4 million to €292.7 million (+167.6%), making Morocco the EU's largest export destination in 2025. Simultaneously, EU imports from Morocco exploded from just €3.5 million to €69.1 million (+1,852.6%). This near-symmetric, rapid expansion in both directions strongly suggests the development of integrated supply chains—likely involving EU-based firms outsourcing component production or assembly to Moroccan plants and re-importing finished or semi-finished insulating fittings.

Source: Top partners by value

Tunisia and Serbia also grew rapidly as export markets

EU exports to Tunisia rose from €60.6 million to €180.0 million (+196.8%), while exports to Serbia grew from €27.5 million to €92.9 million (+238.0%). Like Morocco, these countries are geographically proximate to the EU and have benefited from EU trade agreements and industrial nearshoring strategies. The pattern across all three—Morocco, Tunisia, and Serbia—is consistent with EU manufacturers leveraging lower-cost neighbouring production bases as part of extended European supply chains for electrical components.

China remained the dominant import source and also grew as an export market

China was the EU's single largest import partner and second-largest export destination in 2025. Imports from China grew by 119.5% (from €82.5 million to €181.0 million), while exports to China rose by 53.3% (from €126.2 million to €193.5 million). The faster growth of imports from China relative to exports to China implies a modest narrowing of the bilateral surplus in this product, reflecting China's continued industrial ascent in electrical component manufacturing.

Brexit and post-pandemic shifts eroded trade with traditional partners

Imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 74.6%, from €19.7 million to €5.0 million—one of the steepest declines among all partners. This likely reflects the combined effects of Brexit-related trade friction and the reorientation of supply chains. Imports from Japan (−57.1%) and Switzerland (−22.7%) also declined, suggesting a consolidation of sourcing towards fewer, more geographically concentrated partners. On the export side, flows to the United States (−8.9%) and Ukraine (−13.6%) also contracted, though from relatively high bases.

Central European Member States emerged as specialised export powerhouses

Among EU Member States, Czechia stands out as the fastest-growing exporter, with outbound shipments rising from €107.4 million to €304.9 million (+183.9%). Czechia also recorded the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 5.36) and the strongest normalised specialisation index (RSCA of 0.69) in 2025, confirming its deep specialisation in this product. Germany remained the dominant exporter (€378.5 million → €671.2 million, +77.4%), accounting for nearly 32% of EU production value. Other Member States with notable export growth included Austria (+81.6%), Romania (+83.1%), and France (+44.1%).

Source: Top reporters by value, Specialisation

Hungary is a notable exception to the regional growth trend: its exports actually declined by 16.9% despite high specialisation (RCA of 4.31), suggesting possible production relocation or competitive displacement within the EU.

3. Growing Strategic Autonomy Shadowed by Rising Import Concentration

The EU's net exporter position strengthened dramatically

The EU's net import reliance indicator moved from −17.7% in 2015 to −356.3% in 2025. A negative value denotes a net exporter, and the dramatic deepening of this figure signals that the EU's export activity in this product category vastly exceeds its import needs—by a factor of more than 4.5× imports in the most recent data point. This represents a remarkable degree of structural autonomy in a product that is essential for electrical equipment infrastructure.

Export propensity surged, reflecting the sector's outward orientation

The EU's export propensity rose from 43.6% to 227.8% over the period. This metric, which expresses exports as a share of domestic production, exceeding 100% indicates that the EU exports more than it produces domestically—a situation possible when firms import components, add value through assembly or finishing, and re-export. The surge is consistent with the integrated supply chain dynamics observed with Morocco, Tunisia, and Serbia, where intermediate goods circulate through EU and near-EU production networks.

Trade intensity also increased substantially, from 56.1% to 171.5%, confirming that the EU's involvement in this product market is increasingly oriented towards international trade rather than purely domestic circulation.

Import concentration increased, narrowing the supplier base

Despite the EU's strong net exporter position, the concentration of import sourcing increased meaningfully. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,434 to 1,896 (+32.2%), while the volume-based HHI climbed from 1,623 to 2,586 (+59.3%). An HHI approaching 2,000–2,500 indicates moderate-to-high concentration. The volume-based increase is particularly striking, suggesting that fewer suppliers now account for a larger share of physical imports. China's growing dominance as an import source and the decline of diversified suppliers like the UK, Japan, and Switzerland are the main drivers of this trend.

Export concentration also rose more modestly, with the value-based HHI increasing from 760 to 902 (+18.6%), reflecting the growing weight of Morocco and Tunisia in the EU's export portfolio.

Source: Concentration / HHI

Price shocks in select supplier countries highlight residual vulnerabilities

Despite the EU's overall strength, the volatility analysis reveals pockets of risk in import flows. Three notable price shock events were detected:

The Moroccan import price shock of 2017 (abnormality score of 18.1) was the most extreme detected and coincides with the early phase of the rapid ramp-up in bilateral trade. The US import price shock in 2022 likely reflects post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, while the UK shock in 2021 aligns with the immediate post-Brexit adjustment period. The United Kingdom also exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (CV of 1.48) of any import partner, confirming persistent instability in this trade relationship. Morocco's import volatility (CV of 0.92) was also elevated, consistent with the rapid and still-maturing nature of the bilateral trade link.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU significantly strengthened its position in the global market for plastic insulating fittings. The trade surplus nearly doubled to over €1 billion, driven by a 30% expansion in export volumes against a backdrop of flat imports. This performance was underpinned by robust production growth, the emergence of highly specialised Central European manufacturing hubs—notably Czechia and Hungary—and a strategic geographic reorientation of trade flows towards North Africa and the Western Balkans, where integrated supply chains have rapidly developed.

However, the data also reveals structural risks that merit attention. Import concentration has risen sharply, with China accounting for an increasing share of inbound volumes and the traditional diversification provided by the UK, Japan, and Switzerland having eroded significantly. While the EU's deep net-exporter status provides a substantial buffer against supply disruptions, the narrowing of the import supplier base—particularly in volume terms—leaves the bloc more exposed to bilateral price shocks and geopolitical developments affecting a small number of key partners. Monitoring the continued maturation of the Morocco and Tunisia trade links, as well as the evolution of China's role as both supplier and competitor, will be critical for understanding the future trajectory of this strategically important product category.