Market evolution: Other sauces (CN 21039090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in mixed condiments, seasonings, and other sauces under customs code 21039090 over the period 2015–2025. This residual subheading captures a broad category of prepared sauces and mixed condiments — excluding soya sauce, tomato ketchup, mustard, liquid mango chutney, and aromatic bitters — that collectively represents one of the more dynamic segments within the EU's food preparations trade.

Over the decade examined, the EU's external trade in this product category grew dramatically. Total exports more than doubled in value terms, from approximately €1.01 billion in 2015 to nearly €2.40 billion in 2025, while imports rose from €0.51 billion to €1.03 billion over the same period. This report analyses the main forces behind this expansion, focusing on the EU's strengthening net-exporter position, the geographic reorientation of trade flows, and the structural concentration of EU production and exports in a small number of Member States.

I. A Surging Export Engine Reshapes the EU's Trade Position

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the EU's transformation into an increasingly powerful net exporter of other sauces and mixed condiments. The trade surplus expanded from €505 million in 2015 to €1.36 billion in 2025, a gain of 170.0%, while net import reliance deepened from −3.9% to −18.3%.

Export growth outpaced imports in both volume and value

The following table summarises the aggregate evolution of EU trade flows:

Exports grew faster than imports on every dimension — value, volume, and unit price. The EU's export unit value rose by 41.7% (from €2,323/t to €3,293/t), well above the 24.4% import price increase, suggesting that EU producers moved toward higher-value-added products or successfully passed through cost increases to international buyers.

Trade intensity and export propensity surged

Beyond headline figures, structural indicators confirm the sector's increasing openness and outward orientation. Trade intensity — the share of production entering international trade — rose from 11.9% in 2015 to 33.7% in 2025 (+183.5%). Export propensity, measured as the ratio of exports to domestic production, climbed even more steeply from 8.1% to 26.4% (+227.9%). This indicates that the EU's sauce industry has become substantially more export-oriented over the decade, with roughly one-quarter of output now destined for non-EU markets compared to less than one-tenth at the start of the period.

Domestic production expanded in parallel

EU production grew by 72.8% in volume (from 1.76 billion kg to 3.05 billion kg) and by 83.7% in value (from €5.04 billion to €9.26 billion), indicating that the export surge was built on genuine capacity expansion rather than merely diverting domestic output abroad. The slightly faster growth of production value relative to volume (+83.7% vs. +72.8%) mirrors the general inflationary trend observed in trade unit values.

II. Partner Diversification Amid Rapid Geographic Shifts

While the United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest trade partner in both directions, the period witnessed a dramatic geographic diversification of EU sauce trade. Export concentration (HHI) declined from 1,577 to 1,488, and import concentration fell more sharply from 2,058 to 1,704, both signalling broadening partner bases.

The United States emerged as a transformative export destination

The most dramatic single shift was the surge in EU exports to the United States:

Exports to the US grew by an extraordinary 451.4%, making the US the EU's second-largest export market by 2025 — up from a distant third in 2015. Canada (+319.3%) and Australia (+97.4%) also saw robust growth, suggesting that the EU successfully penetrated Anglophone markets where demand for artisanal and premium European food preparations has been rising. By contrast, exports to Russia grew by a mere 5.3%, likely constrained by sanctions and geopolitical tensions following 2022.

Asian suppliers gained ground on the import side

On the import side, the most notable developments were the rapid growth of Asian sourcing:

Chinese sauce imports into the EU grew by 322.5%, while Turkish (+229.9%), Japanese (+182.0%), and Thai (+159.0%) supplies also expanded sharply. This reflects a broader trend of globalising food supply chains and growing European consumer appetite for Asian flavour profiles. Meanwhile, Swiss imports contracted by 12.1%, possibly reflecting competitive pressures from lower-cost Asian producers or shifts in re-export flows.

Price volatility varied widely across partners

An analysis of coefficient of variation (CV) reveals substantial differences in trade-flow stability. On the export side, US-bound shipments were the most volatile (CV = 0.556), likely reflecting the sensitivity of transatlantic trade to exchange rate movements and competitive dynamics. On the import side, Ukraine (CV = 0.406), China (0.398), and Türkiye (0.382) exhibited the greatest instability. Two notable price shocks were detected in 2023: a +12.3% abnormal price shift in Swiss imports and a −13.4% abnormal shift in Japanese imports, both with high abnormality scores (10.0 and 5.6 respectively).

III. Italy's Rise and the Consolidation of EU Export Capacity

Behind the aggregate EU figures lies a story of considerable internal concentration. EU exports of CN 21039090 are heavily driven by a handful of Member States, with Italy standing out as the dominant and fastest-growing player.

Italy became the EU's undisputed export champion

Italy's exports grew by 321.9%, from €201 million to €847 million, accounting for approximately 35% of total EU exports by 2025. This extraordinary expansion is consistent with Italy's well-known competitive advantage in Mediterranean sauces, pestos, and condiments — a position confirmed by its revealed comparative advantage (RCA = 2.11; RSCA = 0.36). Belgium also saw a remarkable +315.6% increase, likely reflecting the role of the Port of Antwerp as a logistics hub and the presence of multinational sauce manufacturers.

Specialisation patterns reveal a two-speed EU

An analysis of Balassa-type specialisation indices for 2025 confirms a sharp divide among EU Member States:

While Estonia and Croatia show the highest RSCA scores, their tiny export shares mean this has limited market impact. Italy, by contrast, combines strong specialisation (RSCA = 0.357) with a commanding market share (16.9% of EU production), making it the only Member State that is both highly specialised and economically significant in this category.

On the import side, the Netherlands and France saw the steepest increases

France saw the steepest proportional increase (+180.3%), followed by the Netherlands (+141.0%). These figures likely reflect both genuine consumer demand growth and the role of these countries as distribution gateways for non-EU sauces entering the broader European market.

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 was one of transformative growth for the EU's trade in other sauces and mixed condiments (CN 21039090). The EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with its trade surplus nearly tripling to €1.36 billion. This was driven primarily by the extraordinary export performance of Italy, which quadrupled its overseas sales, and by successful market penetration in the United States, where EU exports grew by 451%.

At the same time, the EU's import landscape diversified significantly, with Asian suppliers — particularly China, Thailand, and Japan — gaining substantial market share. The decline in import and export concentration indices (HHI) suggests a broadening and potentially more resilient trade network, though specific supply risks remain for high-volatility partners such as Ukraine and China.

The sharp increase in both trade intensity (from 11.9% to 33.7%) and export propensity (from 8.1% to 26.4%) signals that the EU's sauce industry has undergone a structural shift toward international markets. This outward orientation, combined with robust domestic production growth of 73% in volume, positions the EU as an increasingly influential player in the global condiments market — a role that is likely to deepen as European culinary products continue to gain traction worldwide.