Market evolution: Other integrated circuits (CN 854239) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in electronic integrated circuits classified under customs code 854239 (excluding processors, controllers, memories, and amplifiers) over the period 2015 to 2025. This code is a residual category that captures a diverse range of specialized integrated circuits not included in more specific subheadings. The analysis reveals a market characterized by significant value growth, profound geographical restructuring of trade partners, and increasing price-driven volatility, all contributing to a shift in the EU's strategic trade position.

1. The Decoupling of Value and Volume: A Market Driven by Price Surges

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in CN 854239 over the decade is the dramatic divergence between the growth in trade value and the stagnation or decline of physical quantities traded.

1.1 Imports: Soaring Values Amid Falling Volumes

The EU's import bill for these integrated circuits nearly doubled, increasing by 85.2% from €6.94 billion in 2015 to €12.85 billion in 2025. However, this growth occurred while the quantity of goods imported actually fell by 32.1%, from 13,352 tonnes to 9,063 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a massive 172.8% increase in the average import price, which rose from €519,824 per tonne to €1.42 million per tonne. The trade overview confirms this trend, with the peak import value of €18.6 billion in 2022 coinciding with the period's highest average price of €1.72 million per tonne.

1.2 Exports: A Similar Pattern of Price-Led Expansion

EU exports followed a comparable trajectory. Export value surged by 102.1% to reach €9.27 billion by 2025, while exported quantity declined marginally by 1.8% to 3,974 tonnes. The average export price thus more than doubled, rising by 105.6% to €2.33 million per tonne. Notably, the export price consistently exceeded the import price, indicating the EU may be specializing in higher-value-added segments within this product category. The product segment breakdown shows this is heavily driven by the primary subcategory 85423990, with exports of multichip circuits (85423919) exhibiting exceptionally high per-unit prices.

2. Geographical Restructuring: The Rise of Asia and the Decline of the UK

The period witnessed a profound reorientation of the EU's trade in these circuits, characterized by a consolidation of import sources in East Asia and a significant collapse in trade with the United Kingdom.

2.1 Import Partners: Asian Consolidation and a Post-Brexit Collapse

Taiwan emerged as the dominant supplier, with its share of EU imports rising from €1.10 billion in 2015 to €3.68 billion in 2025 (a 234.5% increase). China and other Asian economies like the Philippines and Thailand also saw substantial growth. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom, a former major partner, plummeted by 95.2% from €323 million to just €16 million—a decline that accelerated sharply after the UK's exit from the EU single market in 2021. This shift is further evidenced by rising import concentration; the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports increased by 30%, indicating a less diversified supplier base more reliant on a few key Asian partners.

2.2 Export Destinations: Diversification towards Asia and Nearshoring Hubs

EU export destinations also shifted. Exports to China grew by 253.9% to €1.19 billion, while shipments to Hong Kong and Mexico—key hubs in global electronics supply chains—grew by 288.6% and 283.8% respectively. This suggests EU-produced circuits are increasingly integrated into Asian manufacturing networks or destined for assembly in nearby regions. The concentration of exports slightly decreased, hinting at a marginally more diversified customer base. Within the EU, Germany and the Netherlands remained the largest importers and exporters, but Italy saw an extraordinary 1146.5% increase in export value, suggesting a developing specialized niche.

3. Volatility, Vulnerability, and Strategic Implications

The combination of price surges and concentrated supply chains has increased market volatility and heightened the EU's strategic vulnerability.

3.1 Price Volatility and Supply Shocks

Trade relationships exhibited significant volatility. For example, imports from the United Kingdom showed an exceptionally high coefficient of variation (1.10), reflecting its erratic collapse. More structurally, a major price shock was detected in 2021, with import prices from the UK spiking by 1,541.4% alongside a general industry-wide supply crunch, underscoring the sensitivity of this high-tech sector to disruptions.

3.2 Increased Import Reliance and Strategic Autonomy Concerns

The EU's net import reliance for this category grew from 16.4% to 22.6% over the period, peaking at 45.4% in 2022. This indicates a widening trade deficit. While EU domestic production of integrated circuits grew substantially in value (131.8%), it was outpaced by import demand. The high trade intensity (79.7% in 2025) confirms the EU economy's heavy dependence on cross-border flows for these components, creating vulnerability to external supply and price shocks.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in "other" integrated circuits (CN 854239) transformed significantly. The market expanded in monetary terms primarily through drastic price increases rather than volume growth. Geographically, supply chains became heavily concentrated in East Asia, particularly Taiwan, while trade with the UK evaporated post-Brexit. This restructuring, coupled with intense price volatility and a rising net import reliance, has increased the EU's exposure to external shocks in a critical technology sector. The data highlights the growing strategic challenge for the EU in securing stable supply chains and maintaining competitiveness in this high-value, high-volatility segment of the semiconductor industry.