Market evolution: Other essential oils (CN 330129) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU combined nomenclature code 330129, covering essential oils (excluding citrus and mint varieties), concretes, and absolutes over the period 2015–2025. The scope of this code is broad and residual in nature: it groups together a wide diversity of oils — from lavender and geranium to clove, ylang-ylang, and vetiver — that are not classified under citrus or mint headings. This heterogeneity makes CN 330129 a meaningful proxy for the wider non-citrus, non-mint essential oils market.

Over the decade under review, the EU's external trade in this product group underwent a structural transformation. Trade values grew substantially on both the import and export sides, but volumes moved in markedly different directions. Prices surged, the trade deficit widened, and the geographic composition of partners shifted — all while EU domestic production expanded considerably. The following sections detail and interpret these dynamics.

1. Rising prices, stagnating volumes: a decade of value-driven growth

EU exports grew in value but barely in volume

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU exports of CN 330129 rose from €313.5 million to €438.1 million, an increase of 39.8% in value. Over the same period, exported quantities rose only marginally, from 5,036 tonnes to 5,110 tonnes (+1.5%). The average unit export price consequently climbed from €62,233 per tonne in 2015 to €85,618 per tonne in 2025 — a 37.6% increase. This indicates that the growth in EU export revenue was almost entirely price-driven, with volumes fluctuating within a narrow band (min. 4,701 tonnes in 2020, max. 6,223 tonnes in 2022).

EU imports saw even steeper price increases amid falling volumes

The import side tells a more dramatic story. The value of EU imports grew from €360.6 million to €557.9 million (+54.7%), yet imported volumes actually fell from 11,637 tonnes to 9,662 tonnes (−17.0%). The import unit price thus nearly doubled, rising from €30,971 per tonne to €57,732 per tonne (+86.4%). This far exceeds the export price increase, suggesting that upstream supply constraints — crop failures, climate disruptions, or geopolitical instability in key producing countries — have disproportionately affected the cost of sourcing raw essential oils from outside the EU.

The EU trade deficit widened significantly

The EU's trade balance in CN 330129 swung from a deficit of €47.1 million in 2015 to a deficit of €119.8 million in 2025 (−154.1%). The deficit narrowed briefly around 2021–2022 — when export prices spiked and volumes surged to 6,223 tonnes — but this proved temporary. At the same time, the EU's net import reliance climbed from 15.6% to 28.3%, indicating that the bloc has become more dependent on external suppliers relative to its own consumption over the decade.

2. Shifting geography: emerging suppliers and diversifying export markets

Indonesia became the EU's dominant import source

Among the EU's top extra-EU import partners, Indonesia stands out as the most dynamic. Indonesian exports of CN 330129 to the EU nearly doubled from €61.5 million in 2015 to €122.6 million in 2025 (+99.2%), making it the single largest external supplier by value — overtaking China, whose shipments remained essentially flat at around €59–60 million. Indonesia is a major producer of clove oil, ylang-ylang, and patchouli, all of which fall within this code. India also grew strongly, from €33.0 million to €55.4 million (+67.7%), consolidating its position as a key supplier of diverse essential oils such as lemongrass and vetiver.

The strong growth from the United States (+143.1%) and the United Kingdom (+65.9%) likely reflects re-export or re-processing flows, as well as the post-Brexit reclassification of UK–EU trade as extra-EU trade from 2021 onward. Indeed, import volatility from the UK is exceptionally high (coefficient of variation of 0.73), consistent with a structural trade disruption around Brexit.

EU export markets diversified substantially

On the export side, the most notable trend is a clear diversification away from the United States — which remains the largest single destination but saw its share decline from €128.7 million to €103.6 million (−19.5%) — toward faster-growing markets. Switzerland nearly doubled its imports from the EU (€29.9M → €58.6M, +95.9%), while exports to Brazil (+113.1%), India (+158.0%), and Singapore (+101.3%) all more than doubled. This geographic diversification is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value, which fell sharply from 2,033 to 1,102 (−45.8%), indicating a much more balanced distribution of EU export destinations by 2025.

France anchors both sides of the EU's essential oils trade

Within the EU, France dominates both imports and exports. In 2025, France accounted for €261.5 million in imports and €261.8 million in exports — roughly half of total EU extra-EU trade in each direction. Spain and Germany follow at a considerable distance. Notably, Ireland's imports surged from €9.4 million to €48.2 million (+414.3%), potentially reflecting the growth of pharmaceutical and fragrance operations in the country. The Netherlands also nearly doubled its import bill (€22.0M → €43.4M, +97.4%), consistent with its role as a major logistics hub.

3. EU production surge and shifting member-state specialisation

Domestic production expanded faster than trade

Alongside the trade evolution, EU domestic production of essential oils covered by CN 330129 grew significantly. Output in volume rose from approximately 34.0 million kg to 60.0 million kg (+76.7%), while production value surged from €494 million to €1,300 million (+163.0%). The steeper increase in value relative to quantity mirrors the price dynamics observed in trade data and points to both higher-value product mixes and general price inflation in the essential oils sector.

Bulgaria, Croatia, and France lead in revealed comparative advantage

Specialisation patterns in 2025 show that Bulgaria (RSCA = 0.71), Croatia (RSCA = 0.61), and France (RSCA = 0.58) are the most specialised EU member states in CN 330129 exports. Bulgaria's specialisation is linked to its long-standing rose oil industry (rose otto is classified under this residual code), while France's reflects the Grasse-based fragrance and flavour industry. Spain (RSCA = 0.41) and Poland (RSCA = 0.35) also show moderate specialisation. At the other extreme, Malta, Portugal, Sweden, and Luxembourg exhibit near-zero specialisation, consistent with limited domestic essential oil production.

Export concentration fell while import reliance deepened

The EU's export market structure became markedly less concentrated over the decade: the export HHI by value dropped from 2,033 to 1,102, while the import HHI edged up slightly from 848 to 931. The trade intensity of the product rose from 58.2% to 76.3%, and export propensity increased from 35.6% to 54.1%. Together, these indicators suggest that while the EU has become more outward-facing in this sector, it has simultaneously grown more dependent on a wider but still vulnerable set of external suppliers — a dynamic that merits attention from a strategic autonomy perspective.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in non-citrus, non-mint essential oils (CN 330129) over 2015–2025 has been shaped by three converging dynamics: a pronounced shift from volume- to value-driven trade growth, a geographic reorientation of both supply and demand, and a substantial expansion of EU domestic production. Import prices nearly doubled while volumes contracted, widening the trade deficit and raising the EU's net import reliance from 15.6% to 28.3%. Indonesia emerged as the dominant external supplier, while EU exports diversified away from the US toward Swiss, Brazilian, Indian, and Asian markets. France remains the linchpin of EU trade in this sector, both as importer and exporter, while Bulgaria and Croatia maintain strong specialisation profiles. The overall picture is one of a market that has grown significantly in value terms but faces increasing cost pressures from upstream supply chains and a deepening structural dependence on non-EU sourcing.