Market evolution: Open-die forged steel crankshafts (CN 84831025) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in open-die forged steel crankshafts (customs code 84831025) over the 2015–2025 period. The EU operates as a structurally net exporter of this product: in 2025, exports reached €150.5 million against imports of €39.7 million, yielding a trade surplus of €110.8 million — up 35.3% from 2015. Over the decade, EU domestic production roughly tripled in both volume (+182%, from 21,104 tonnes to 59,570 tonnes) and value (+201%, from €209 million to €629 million), reflecting a substantial expansion of EU manufacturing capacity. Yet behind this headline growth lie three distinct dynamics — involving a dramatic redistribution of export leadership within the EU, a structural erosion of unit export prices, and a growing concentration of import sources in Asia — that reshape the competitive landscape and the EU's exposure to external dependencies.

1. A Tectonic Shift in EU Export Leadership: Germany's Decline and the Rise of Southern and Eastern Europe

The decade witnessed a profound reallocation of EU export capacity away from Germany and toward Spain, France, Italy, and several Central and Eastern European economies. This redistribution fundamentally altered the internal geography of the EU's crankshaft industry.

Germany's export dominance collapsed between 2015 and 2025

In 2015, Germany was by far the EU's leading exporter of open-die forged steel crankshafts to non-EU markets, accounting for €60.4 million — roughly half of all EU extra-EU exports. By 2025, German exports had fallen to just €11.9 million, a decline of 80.3%. This placed Germany well behind Spain (€73.5 million), France (€19.2 million), and Austria (€17.9 million). The decline was not a one-off shock but a progressive erosion, with the minimum over the period (€9.6 million) occurring in an intermediate year. Germany's Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) in 2025 stood at only 0.93 — below the threshold of 1.0 — confirming that the country has effectively lost its specialisation in this product category.

Spain emerged as the EU's dominant exporter, with France and Italy as fast-growing secondary players

Spain's exports surged from €29.0 million to €73.5 million (+153.3%), making it the single largest EU exporter to non-EU countries by 2025. This is consistent with Spain's strong specialisation in this product (RSCA of 0.60, RCA of 4.03). France, with an even higher RCA of 5.05 and the strongest RSCA among all EU members (0.67), also grew sharply from €6.6 million to €19.2 million (+191.1%). Italy and Poland displayed even faster growth rates (from lower bases): Italian exports rose by 389% to €9.4 million, and Polish exports grew by 242% to €7.9 million. Austria maintained a steady presence at €17.9 million.

Source: EU exporters to non-EU countries; specialisation data

The geographic diversification of exports paradoxically coincided with rising concentration toward fewer destination markets

While the internal EU picture became more distributed, export concentration toward destination countries increased markedly. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value rose from 1,266 to 2,268 (+79.2%), moving from a unconcentrated to a moderately concentrated market structure. This was driven by the growing weight of the United Kingdom — the single largest destination, absorbing €63.6 million in 2025 (up 90.1% from €33.4 million in 2015) — alongside continued strength in US-bound exports (€26.4 million, +56.7%). In effect, the EU's export base became simultaneously more geographically diversified within the bloc but more reliant on fewer external markets, particularly post-Brexit Britain.

2. Volume-Led Growth Masked by a Structural Erosion of Export Prices

EU export performance appears strong on a volume basis, but a deeper look reveals a sustained decline in unit values that points to intensifying price competition in global markets.

Export volumes nearly doubled while export values grew only modestly

EU exports of open-die forged steel crankshafts rose from 18,079 tonnes in 2015 to 34,211 tonnes in 2025 — an increase of 89.2%. Over the same period, total export value grew by only 25.3% (from €120.1 million to €150.5 million). The arithmetic consequence is a sharp decline in average unit export prices: from €6,641 per tonne in 2015 to €4,398 per tonne in 2025, a fall of 33.8%. The minimum unit price over the decade was €4,302/t, indicating that the 2025 level was near the floor.

Import prices moved in the opposite direction, widening the unit-value gap

In stark contrast, average EU import prices rose from €3,504/t to €4,975/t (+42.0%). This divergence suggests that EU exports may be increasingly concentrated in lower-value segments or facing price pressure from competing origins, while imported crankshafts — particularly from Japan and increasingly from India — may serve higher-specification niches. Alternatively, the composition of export destinations (with growing shares to price-sensitive markets) may have contributed to the decline.

Source: General overview of EU trade

EU production tripled, likely absorbing lower-specification demand domestically

EU production volumes rose from 21,104 tonnes (2015) to 59,570 tonnes (2025), while production value grew from €209 million to €629 million. The average domestic production unit value thus moved from roughly €9,900/t to €10,560/t — far above both export and import unit prices. This suggests that EU producers supply a broad range of product grades, with lower-grade exports increasingly competing on cost while higher-grade domestic production serves European OEMs and the after-market. The rapid production expansion also implies that the EU's growing export volumes are partly enabled by rising domestic capacity rather than solely by re-routing existing output.

3. Growing Import Dependence on Asia and Heightened Supply Vulnerability

While the EU remains a net exporter, its import profile shifted significantly toward Asian suppliers — particularly China and India — creating new sources of both opportunity and vulnerability.

China consolidated its position as the EU's largest import source; India surged to second place

Among EU import partners, China's shipments rose from €11.8 million to €14.6 million (+23.0%), maintaining its leading position. The most dramatic shift, however, came from India, which saw imports surge by 420% — from €1.5 million to €7.7 million — reaching a peak of €11.8 million in an intermediate year. By contrast, imports from the United States collapsed by 86.6% (from €4.6 million to €0.6 million), and those from Japan — the second-largest source in 2015 at €11.6 million — edged down to €10.5 million (−9.0%). Imports from Brazil, the UK, and Türkiye also declined over the period.

Source: EU import partners; volatility data

Import concentration increased, amplifying exposure to Asian supply disruptions

The HHI for import value rose from 2,163 to 2,495 (+15.4%), indicating a moderate and growing concentration. With China and India together now accounting for a combined share exceeding that of Japan alone in 2015, the EU's import base has tilted decisively toward Asia. A notable price shock was detected in EU imports from China in 2020, with an abnormality score of 19.7 and an 89.7% price shift — likely reflecting pandemic-related supply disruptions or demand surges in that year. The United Kingdom, now an ex-EU partner, shows the highest import volatility (CV of 2.01), consistent with the disruption introduced by Brexit trade frictions.

The EU's overall import-reliance ratio improved, but export propensity declined

Despite the growing Asian import share, the EU's net import reliance remained deeply negative (i.e., the EU is a consistent net exporter), moving from −77.9% to −71.1%. However, export propensity — the ratio of exports to production — fell from 118.3% to 95.7%, meaning that the EU now exports a smaller share of its output than it produces domestically. Trade intensity (total trade relative to production) also declined from 110.5% to 97.2%. Taken together, these indicators suggest that the EU's rapidly expanded production capacity is increasingly absorbed by intra-EU and domestic demand, rather than fuelling extra-EU export growth at the same pace.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's open-die forged steel crankshaft sector underwent substantial transformation. Production nearly tripled, the trade surplus widened by 35%, and the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter. Yet the headline figures conceal structural tensions. Germany's once-dominant export role has been eclipsed by Spain, France, Italy, and Poland — a redistribution that may reflect both competitive cost advantages in Southern and Eastern Europe and the reorganisation of global automotive and industrial supply chains. At the same time, a 34% decline in export unit prices — while export volumes nearly doubled — signals intensifying global competition and possible commoditisation pressures. On the import side, the rapid rise of India and the consolidation of China's position have shifted the EU's sourcing profile firmly toward Asia, increasing concentration and potential exposure to geopolitical or logistics disruptions. The EU's strong self-sufficiency (negative net import reliance) and its expanded production base provide a comfortable buffer, but the declining export propensity and rising import concentration warrant continued attention from policymakers and industry stakeholders monitoring the resilience of Europe's heavy-forging supply chain.