Market evolution: Narrow knitted fabrics (CN 6003) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in narrow knitted or crocheted fabrics (Combined Nomenclature code 6003) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers knitted or crocheted fabrics of a width of 30 cm or less, excluding those containing elastomeric yarn or rubber thread, pile fabrics, and impregnated or laminated fabrics. It encompasses five subheadings: fabrics of wool or fine animal hair (600310), cotton (600320), synthetic fibres (600330), artificial fibres (600340), and other textile materials (600390).

Over the decade, the EU has remained a consistent net exporter in this product segment, though its surplus has gradually narrowed. Meanwhile, the EU's domestic production has contracted significantly, while trade patterns have been reshaped by geopolitical events—most notably Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The following sections examine these dynamics in detail.

1. A Resilient Export Base Facing Rising Import Pressure

The EU's trade surplus has narrowed but persists

Throughout the period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 6003. However, the overall trade picture shows a gradual erosion of this advantage:

Export value remained broadly stable over the decade, while import value increased by nearly 44%, driven by both higher volumes and higher unit prices. The net import reliance improved from −18.3% in 2015 to −8.5% in 2025 (negative values indicate net export status), reflecting a moderate convergence between imports and exports.

Export volumes declined while import volumes rose

EU export volumes contracted modestly, but export unit values rose, partially compensating in value terms. Import volumes and import prices both increased more strongly, indicating growing demand for lower-cost knitted fabrics from non-EU suppliers. The persistent price differential—EU exports command roughly 3.6 times the price of imports—suggests the EU specialises in higher-value-added or niche knitted fabrics, while importing more commoditised products.

Domestic production contracted sharply

The most striking structural shift lies in EU domestic production:

Despite stable export values, EU production of narrow knitted fabrics fell by over a fifth in volume and nearly 28% in value. This decline suggests that part of the EU's textile manufacturing base for this product category has relocated or contracted, with rising imports partially filling the gap. The combination of stable exports alongside falling production points to an increasingly import-dependent domestic market for narrow knitted fabrics.

2. Shifting Geographic Patterns: Brexit, China's Rise, and Neighbourhood Trade

China has become the EU's dominant import supplier

The geographic breakdown of imports reveals a dramatic shift in sourcing:

China more than doubled its share of EU imports, rising from €4.2 million to €8.8 million. In contrast, imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 63%, almost certainly a consequence of Brexit and the introduction of customs formalities from January 2021. Taiwan and Türkiye also saw significant declines, while Ukraine—benefiting from EU trade facilitation measures, particularly after 2022—grew by 28%.

Brexit reshaped EU–UK trade flows in both directions

The impact of Brexit is visible on both sides of the trade relationship. While EU imports from the UK fell by 63%, EU exports to the United Kingdom actually increased by 62%, from €2.4 million to €3.9 million. This asymmetry may reflect the fact that UK manufacturers are sourcing more knitted fabric from the EU rather than domestic production, or that EU exporters redirected supply previously handled intra-EU.

The EU's export geography is concentrated around its neighbourhood

The top export destinations reflect the EU's traditional trade links and near-shoring supply chains:

Morocco and Tunisia—key destinations for the EU's outward processing trade in textiles—remain major export markets. The United States became the EU's largest single export market in 2025 at €7.1 million, a 34% increase, reflecting strong demand for specialised European knitted fabrics. The collapse in exports to Serbia (−55%) is more puzzling and may reflect shifting sourcing patterns or competition from lower-cost suppliers in the Western Balkans.

Germany dominates EU exports; Italy's role has diminished sharply

The internal EU breakdown reveals significant shifts in which Member States drive exports:

Germany consolidated its position as the EU's leading exporter, growing by 28% to €22.4 million. Italy, traditionally a major textile producer, saw its exports collapse by 62%, a decline that mirrors its falling domestic production. Austria's remarkable 207% increase suggests repositioning within the EU's internal production geography, possibly linked to nearshoring trends. Specialisation data confirms Germany's strong comparative advantage (RCA of 3.22), while most other EU countries show no specialisation in this product.

3. Synthetic Fabrics Dominate While Prices Reveal Structural Shifts

Synthetic fibre fabrics (600330) account for the bulk of trade

The product segment breakdown reveals that 600330 (synthetic fibres) is by far the largest subheading in both imports and exports:

EU Imports by Subheading (2025, value)

EU Exports by Subheading (2025, value)

Synthetic fibre fabrics represent over three-quarters of trade in both directions. The EU runs a substantial trade surplus in this subheading (exports of €31.8 million vs. imports of €12.8 million in 2025), indicating competitive strength in higher-value synthetic knitted fabrics.

Price dynamics reveal post-pandemic inflation and recovery

Export unit prices for the dominant 600330 subheading showed significant volatility, falling from €37,821/t in 2015 to a low of €25,182/t in 2022 before recovering sharply to €43,632/t in 2025. Import prices for the same subheading followed a different trajectory, rising from €9,356/t to €11,269/t over the period. The concentration data shows that import concentration (HHI) has increased markedly, from 1,961 to 3,106 by value, reflecting China's growing dominance as a supplier.

Supply-side volatility is concentrated in a few key relationships

The volatility analysis identifies several high-volatility trade relationships:

• Imports from the United Kingdom show the highest coefficient of variation (1.13), reflecting the Brexit shock.
• Imports from Pakistan (CV: 2.09) and Tunisia (CV: 1.65) are also highly volatile, suggesting episodic sourcing.
• On the export side, trade with Tunisia (CV: 0.66) and Türkiye (CV: 0.65) shows moderate volatility, while the main partners—Morocco and the United States—are relatively stable.

Price shock events were detected for EU exports to China (2018, +158% price shift), Morocco (2023, +139%), and Tunisia (2022, +54%). These may reflect a combination of product mix changes, cost-push inflation, and post-pandemic demand surges.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in narrow knitted fabrics (CN 6003) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural adjustment rather than outright decline. The bloc has maintained its status as a net exporter, with stable export values around €39 million, while its competitive edge lies in higher-value synthetic and specialised knitted fabrics where export prices are three to four times those of imports. However, the underlying picture is one of contraction: domestic production fell by over 22% in volume, imports grew by 44%, and the trade surplus narrowed by 17%.

Three forces have shaped this evolution. First, globalisation and offshoring have driven a shift towards Chinese imports, which more than doubled over the period, while traditional suppliers like Taiwan and Türkiye lost ground. Second, Brexit dramatically reconfigured EU–UK trade, cutting import flows by 63% while paradoxically boosting EU exports to the UK by 62%. Third, the internal EU geography of production has shifted, with Germany consolidating its dominance as the leading exporter (+28%) while Italy's role collapsed (−62%), suggesting a concentration of remaining production in fewer, more specialised locations.

Looking ahead, rising import concentration—both in terms of geographic sourcing (China's growing share) and the HHI index—constitutes a vulnerability. The EU's trade intensity has increased from 52% to 84%, meaning this market is deeply integrated into global supply chains. Any disruption—whether from trade policy changes, geopolitical tensions, or logistics bottlenecks—could have amplified effects on the EU's narrow knitted fabrics sector.