Market evolution: Multifunction printers (CN 844331) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in multifunction printers and similar devices (CN 844331) — machines combining printing, copying and/or facsimile transmission functions, connectable to automatic data-processing machines or networks — over the period 2015–2025. The scope and definitions of this product code correspond precisely to what is commonly known as multifunction devices (MFDs) or all-in-one printers, a category that has undergone significant structural transformation over the past decade. The EU runs a substantial and persistent trade deficit in this product class: in 2025, imports stood at €2.53 billion versus exports of €0.91 billion, yielding a deficit of approximately €1.62 billion. Three overarching dynamics define the period: a sustained erosion of unit values despite relatively resilient trade volumes, a dramatic geographic reorientation of sourcing away from China toward Southeast Asia, and a growing structural import dependency of the EU coupled with increasing export diversification.

1. Volume Resilience and the Persistent Decline in Unit Values

1.1 Trade values have contracted across both flows

Over the 2015–2025 period, the overall trade picture reveals a notable decline in nominal trade values. EU imports of CN 844331 fell from €3.18 billion in 2015 to €2.53 billion in 2025 (−20.4%), while exports declined from €1.05 billion to €0.91 billion (−13.1%). The trade deficit, while still large, narrowed from −€2.13 billion to −€1.62 billion, an improvement of 24.0%.

1.2 Physical volumes tell a different story

While values fell, weight-based quantities remained comparatively stable — and in the case of exports, actually grew. Import volumes (net mass) edged down only 2.1% (from 203,045 t to 198,877 t), while export volumes rose 32.8% (from 51,791 t to 68,759 t). This divergence between value and volume points squarely to declining unit prices rather than declining demand.

1.3 A divergence between mass-based and per-item pricing

An important nuance emerges when comparing tonne-based and per-item (supplementary unit) prices. Export price per tonne fell 34.5% to €13,247/t, yet export price per item rose 42.4% (from €212 to €303 per unit). Similarly, import price per item increased 17.9% (from €152 to €180). This paradox — falling per-kilogramme prices alongside rising per-unit prices — is consistent with a product mix shift toward lighter, higher-value devices. Modern multifunction printers have become more compact over the decade, with lower-end inkjet devices giving way to more feature-rich, business-oriented units. At the same time, the number of items traded fell sharply: export items dropped 39.0% (from 4.94 million to 3.01 million units) and import items fell 32.5% (from 20.86 million to 14.08 million units), suggesting market consolidation and a secular shift toward digital document workflows reducing overall unit demand.

2. The Geographic Reorientation: From China to Southeast Asia

2.1 China's share of EU imports has collapsed

The most striking structural shift in the partner landscape is the dramatic decline of China as the EU's primary supplier. Chinese imports fell from €1.96 billion in 2015 to just €767 million in 2025 — a collapse of 61.0%. China's peak was reached in the early part of the period (max €2.05 billion). This decline reflects the combined effects of tariff pressures, corporate supply-chain diversification strategies, and the strategic repositioning of major manufacturers (e.g., HP, Canon, Brother, Epson) toward Southeast Asian production bases.

2.2 ASEAN countries have absorbed China's lost share

The vacuum left by China has been filled almost entirely by a cluster of ASEAN nations:

Thailand and Viet Nam are now the two largest non-EU suppliers to the bloc, each approaching €0.6 billion. Malaysia (+299%) and the Philippines (+330%) have seen the most dramatic proportional growth, albeit from lower bases. Indonesia has also grown, though more modestly. This geographic redistribution is consistent with the broader trend in electronics manufacturing, where companies such as HP, Canon, Ricoh, and Brother have progressively shifted assembly and production capacity from China to Thailand, Viet Nam, and other ASEAN locations over the past decade — driven by cost considerations, trade policy risks (including the US–China trade tensions that began in 2018), and supply-chain resilience strategies.

2.3 The United Kingdom's collapse as a trading partner reflects Brexit

The EU–UK trade relationship in this product has deteriorated dramatically since Brexit. EU exports to the UK — formerly the single largest destination — fell from €588 million in 2015 to €270 million in 2025 (−54.1%). Conversely, EU imports from the UK collapsed from €120 million to just €5.2 million (−95.7%). The UK's exit from the EU single market and customs union, completed in January 2021, introduced customs formalities, regulatory divergence, and non-tariff barriers that severely disrupted previously frictionless flows. The volatility coefficient of UK import flows into the EU (0.83) is among the highest of any partner, confirming the structural instability introduced by Brexit.

2.4 Russia's decline reflects sanctions

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €33 million in 2015 to just €5.8 million in 2025 (−82.7%), with the sharpest declines occurring after 2022 in line with EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The volatility of this export flow is very high (CV = 0.80), and the peak-to-trough range (from €122 million to €3.7 million) underscores the policy-driven nature of this collapse.

3. Growing Import Dependency, Diversifying Supply Chains, and Shifting Intra-EU Dynamics

3.1 The EU's structural import dependency has deepened

The net import reliance of the EU for CN 844331 has increased from 83.4% in 2015 to 89.9% in 2025, reaching its highest point in the series. EU domestic production of multifunction printers has declined significantly in value terms — from €319 million to €200 million (−37.3%) — even as production quantity rose modestly (from 1.76 million to 2.00 million items, +13.5%). This implies that the EU's remaining production base is increasingly focused on lower-value or more commoditised product segments, or that manufacturing margins have been compressed. The trade intensity ratio (imports + exports as a share of apparent consumption) rose from 118.4% to 125.9%, confirming the EU's deepening integration into globalised supply chains for this product.

3.2 Export propensity has surged, driven by re-export dynamics

A particularly notable finding is the export propensity metric (exports relative to production), which nearly doubled from 259% to 481%. This very high ratio indicates that EU "exports" are overwhelmingly re-exports of imported devices rather than domestically manufactured goods. The Netherlands — the EU's largest trade hub and home to the Port of Rotterdam — is the dominant intra-EU reporter for both imports (€1.42 billion in 2025) and exports (€360 million), reflecting its role as the primary entry and redistribution point for multifunction printers destined for the broader European market.

3.3 Supply-chain concentration has fallen sharply

Despite the growing import dependency, the good news from a vulnerability perspective is that supplier concentration has declined substantially. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 4,089 to 2,248 (−45.0%), while the export HHI dropped from 3,369 to 1,266 (−62.4%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered "moderately concentrated," meaning the EU's import structure has moved from a highly concentrated profile (dominated by China) to a more diversified one. The export side has become even more fragmented, with the Netherlands (RSCA = 0.51, RCA = 3.06) leading EU specialisation, followed by Czechia (RSCA = 0.30) and Hungary (RSCA = 0.20).

3.4 Shocks and volatility highlight specific vulnerabilities

The volatility analysis reveals that certain newly important supplier countries carry higher volatility risk. Malaysia (CV = 0.48) and the Philippines (CV = 0.29) — two of the fastest-growing import sources — display elevated variability in their trade flows, suggesting that the diversification away from China, while beneficial for concentration metrics, has introduced some new instability. On the export side, two shock events stand out in 2022: a significant price shock in exports to Switzerland (abnormality score of 6.0, with a −16.7% price shift, representing 12.4% of export value) and a price shock to the United Arab Emirates (+34.3% price shift). These may reflect post-COVID supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures that characterised global goods trade in 2022.

Conclusion

The EU market for multifunction printers (CN 844331) has undergone a quiet but profound structural transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. Total trade values declined by roughly 15–20%, driven not by collapsing demand but by sustained erosion of unit prices and a secular decline in unit volumes as digitalisation continues to reduce reliance on physical printing. The most consequential development has been the geographic reorientation of supply chains: China's share of EU imports has fallen by over 60%, with ASEAN nations — particularly Thailand, Viet Nam, Malaysia, and the Philippines — absorbing the displaced production capacity. This diversification has significantly lowered supplier concentration (HHI down 45%), improving the EU's structural resilience, even as overall import dependency has deepened to nearly 90%. The EU's domestic production base continues to shrink in value terms, and the bloc's export profile is dominated by re-export activity channelled through the Netherlands. The disappearance of the UK as a major bilateral trading partner and the collapse of exports to Russia stand out as policy-driven disruptions. Looking ahead, the EU's reliance on Southeast Asian supply chains for this product class will need to be monitored carefully, particularly given the emerging volatility risks associated with newer supplier countries.