Market evolution: Multi-shaft screw compressors (CN 84148075) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of multi-shaft screw compressors (Combined Nomenclature code 84148075) in the European Union's external trade over the 2015–2025 period. These industrial compressors — used across manufacturing, petrochemical, and process industries — constitute a significant segment within EU machinery exports. The period under review is marked by major structural transformations: a pronounced shift toward higher-value exports, a surge in imports from emerging suppliers, the disruption of established trade corridors following geopolitical events, and substantial domestic production expansion. Overall, the EU has reinforced its position as a net exporter while pivoting its export portfolio upmarket, even as competitive imports have grown rapidly from lower-cost origins.

1. The EU's Pivot to Higher-Value Exports: Growing Revenue on Declining Volumes

1.1 Export value grew by 34% while physical volumes contracted

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of multi-shaft screw compressors increased in value from €802.4 million to €1,075.0 million — a gain of 34.0%. Yet, over the same period, export volume in tonnes declined from 57,049 to 52,290 (−8.3%), and the number of units shipped fell from 154,276 to 106,852 pieces (−30.7%). The export value peaked at €1,213.6 million during the period, demonstrating that the EU's revenue base is robust despite a structural decline in physical throughput.

1.2 Average export prices nearly doubled, signalling a premium-product strategy

The divergence between value growth and volume decline is explained by a dramatic rise in average export prices. The unit price per piece increased by 93.4% (from €5,201 to €10,060), while the price per tonne rose by 46.2% (from €14,065 to €20,557). Both metrics reached their period highs in 2025. This indicates that the EU has increasingly specialised in higher-capacity, higher-value-added compressors — consistent with a strategy of competing on technology and reliability rather than on cost. It is also plausible that the decline in unit volumes partly reflects a consolidation toward fewer, larger, and more complex units per shipment.

1.3 Germany and Belgium dominate the export landscape

Within the EU, Germany and Belgium together account for the vast majority of external exports. Belgium's exports grew from €313.0 million to €403.6 million (+28.9%), while Germany's rose from €338.4 million to €429.9 million (+27.0%). Italy also emerged as a significant exporter, growing from €78.7 million to €144.1 million (+83.0%). By contrast, Czechia's exports collapsed from €24.2 million to just €1.1 million (−95.5%), a striking decline that may reflect shifts in intra-EU production or the relocation of manufacturing capacity.

2. Import Surge from China and Türkiye Reshapes the Supply Side

2.1 Imports grew nearly fourfold in both value and volume

While the EU remains a strong net exporter, imports of multi-shaft screw compressors expanded dramatically over the period. Import value rose from €25.2 million to €98.2 million (+289.8%), and import volume in tonnes grew from 2,071 to 9,629 (+364.9%). The number of imported units increased from 11,967 to 32,535 pieces (+171.9%). This import growth substantially outpaced the growth in EU domestic demand, suggesting that non-EU suppliers are gaining market share within the EU internal market.

Notably, the average import price per tonne declined by 16.1% (from €12,162 to €10,199), in stark contrast to the 46.2% increase in export prices. The widening price gap — EU exports at €20,557/t versus imports at €10,199/t — is a defining feature of the period and points to the emergence of a two-tier market: premium EU-origin compressors for demanding applications, and lower-cost imported units for price-sensitive segments.

2.2 China and Türkiye are the primary drivers of import growth

The top import partners by value reveal the sources of this import surge:

China's imports surged by an extraordinary 1,473%, rising from a marginal €2.2 million in 2015 to €34.0 million in 2025 — making it the EU's largest single source of imported multi-shaft screw compressors. Türkiye, already a significant supplier in 2015, tripled its shipments to €23.6 million. Taiwan also emerged as a major supplier, growing from virtually zero to €9.2 million. This pattern is consistent with the broader trend of industrial compressor manufacturing capacity expanding in East Asia and Türkiye, often serving EU markets at competitive price points. Within the EU, Germany and Italy saw the largest absolute increases in import values, while France experienced the most dramatic proportional growth (+1,171%).

2.3 Import concentration has increased, with a rising Herfindahl index

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,882 in 2015 to 2,339 in 2025 (+24.3%). By volume, the concentration increase was even steeper, rising from 2,088 to 3,299 (+58.0%). This indicates that the import market has become less diversified — increasingly dominated by a smaller number of large suppliers, principally China and Türkiye. For the EU, this rising concentration is a potential source of vulnerability, as it reduces the buffer against supply disruptions from any single origin.

3. Geopolitical Disruptions, Domestic Production Expansion, and the Trade Balance

3.1 The near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation

One of the most dramatic shifts in the period was the near-complete cessation of EU exports to Russia. Exports fell from €52.6 million in 2015 to just €0.4 million in 2025 (−99.2%). Russia was among the EU's top export destinations at the start of the period; by 2025, it had become negligible. This collapse aligns with the sanctions regimes imposed following 2022 and reflects the broader decoupling of EU–Russia industrial trade. The volatility coefficient for EU exports to Russia (0.63) was among the highest of any major partner, consistent with the sharp disruptions observed.

3.2 The United States and United Kingdom consolidated as key export markets

With Russia's exit, the United States became the EU's largest single export market by a wide margin. Exports to the US grew from €174.1 million to €279.5 million (+60.6%), peaking at €340.8 million during the period. The United Kingdom also grew strongly, from €40.7 million to €75.5 million (+85.2%), despite the post-Brexit trade friction. Mexico (+71.9%), Türkiye (+38.6%), and India (+22.5%) also gained in importance, while exports to China remained broadly stable at around €44 million (−5.2%). The export destination diversification can be observed from the moderate increase in the export HHI (from 694 to 945, +36.1%), which remains well below the import-side concentration, indicating a relatively diversified export portfolio.

3.3 EU domestic production expanded dramatically

The EU's domestic production of multi-shaft screw compressors grew substantially over the period. Output in units increased from 150,000 to 507,485 pieces (+238.3%), while production value rose from €1.0 billion to €2.4 billion (+140.0%), peaking at €2.8 billion. This expansion underscores the EU's continued investment in compressor manufacturing, even as imports grew. The specialisation analysis for 2025 confirms this: Belgium (RCA 2.98), Italy (RCA 2.53), and Germany (RCA 1.81) display strong revealed comparative advantage in this product, while newer EU member states such as Romania and Finland show moderate specialisation.

3.4 The EU's net exporter position has strengthened

Despite the import surge, the EU's trade balance in multi-shaft screw compressors remained strongly positive throughout the period, growing from €777.2 million to €976.7 million (+25.7%). The net import reliance — which is negative for a net exporter — moved from −66.6% to −85.5%, indicating an increasing export orientation. Similarly, the trade intensity rose from 43.0% to 51.1%, and export propensity increased from 41.9% to 49.5%. In other words, the EU is both producing more and exporting a growing share of its output, even as it absorbs more imports at the lower end of the market.

3.5 Price shocks have been concentrated in specific bilateral corridors

The shock detection analysis reveals that the most significant price shocks occurred in bilateral trade flows rather than across the board. The largest was a 43.9% price shift in EU imports from the United Kingdom in 2017 (abnormality score of 20.2), followed by a 38.5% price shift in EU exports to China in 2021 (abnormality 18.1). A notable shock in EU exports to the United Arab Emirates in 2023 (+37.9%) further illustrates the idiosyncratic nature of price volatility in this market. Among import origins, Taiwan (CV 0.96) and Japan (CV 2.13) showed the highest volatility, while among export destinations, Russia (CV 0.63) and Norway (CV 0.24) were the most volatile — the former driven by geopolitical disruption, the latter likely by small-sample effects.

Conclusion

The EU's multi-shaft screw compressors market underwent a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The overarching narrative is one of premiumisation on the export side and competitive import penetration on the lower end. EU manufacturers have successfully pivoted toward higher-value, more complex compressors, nearly doubling unit export prices and maintaining a trade surplus approaching €1 billion. Domestic production expanded by over 200% in unit terms, underpinning strong specialisation in Belgium, Germany, and Italy. At the same time, imports have grown nearly fourfold, driven primarily by China and Türkiye, creating a bifurcated market with an increasingly clear price divide. The geopolitical shock of the Russia–Ukraine conflict removed a major export market, but the loss was absorbed through the redirection of capacity toward the US, UK, and emerging markets. Rising import concentration (HHI) merits monitoring, as the EU's growing reliance on a narrow set of suppliers could pose strategic risks should trade conditions change. On balance, the EU's position as a global leader in multi-shaft screw compressor manufacturing has been reinforced, but the competitive landscape is shifting — and the coming years will test whether the EU's quality- and technology-based advantage can withstand the continued scaling of lower-cost producers.