Market evolution: Metal hose (CN 8307) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in flexible tubing of base metal, with or without fittings (CN 8307) over the 2015–2025 period. The product category encompasses flexible tubes made of iron, steel, or other base metals — components widely used in industrial piping, oil & gas, HVAC, automotive, and offshore applications.

Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of flexible metal tubing. Total export value rose by 69.3% to reach EUR 908.8 million by 2025, while imports nearly doubled (+96.5%) to EUR 330.4 million. The resulting trade surplus widened to EUR 578.4 million. Domestic production volumes nearly tripled, underpinning both the export expansion and a structural shift in the EU's competitive positioning. Three main dynamics emerge from the data: (i) a broadening and strengthening of the EU's net-exporter base driven by surging production; (ii) a significant geographic reorientation of trade flows, with new export frontiers in Africa offsetting the decline of traditional markets; and (iii) a persistent upward trajectory in unit values, punctuated by notable supply shocks in 2021–2022.

1. A Strengthening Net-Exporter Position Fueled by Production Expansion

The EU's flexible tubing sector expanded robustly over the period, with output growth outpacing import demand and reinforcing the bloc's structural trade surplus.

Exports grew faster than imports in absolute value

Despite imports growing by 96.5% in value terms (from EUR 168.2 million in 2015 to EUR 330.4 million in 2025), EU exports remained substantially larger, rising 69.3% from EUR 536.9 million to EUR 908.8 million. The trade balance stayed positive throughout the entire period, reaching EUR 578.4 million in 2025 — the highest level in the series.

However, the path was not linear. The surplus narrowed sharply in 2022, falling to a minimum of EUR 136.2 million, as import values surged to EUR 364.7 million (the period maximum) while export values dipped. This coincided with the energy-price shock and post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions. The subsequent recovery was vigorous: by 2024, the surplus had rebounded to EUR 424.6 million before climbing further in 2025.

Domestic production nearly tripled in volume

EU production volumes surged from 109,807 tonnes to 325,171 tonnes (+196.1%), with a peak of 372,600 tonnes recorded during the period. Production value rose more moderately, growing 57.1% from EUR 894.5 million to EUR 1,404.8 million (with a peak of EUR 1,782.7 million). The fact that volumes grew far faster than values implies a decline in average unit output value — consistent with a large-scale ramp-up in standardised, higher-volume iron and steel tubing production for energy and infrastructure applications.

Trade openness doubled

The EU's trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) rose from 31.4% to 62.9%, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) climbed from 26.2% to 54.0%. These indicators, both roughly doubling, signal that the flexible tubing industry became significantly more export-oriented over the decade, with external markets absorbing an increasing share of EU output.

2. Geographic Reorientation: New Export Frontiers and Diversifying Import Channels

The period saw a dramatic reshuffling of trade partners on both the export and import sides, driven by shifting energy-sector investments, geopolitical factors, and evolving supply chains.

Export destinations shifted from West to Southern and West Africa

The most striking change on the export side was the collapse of Ghana as a destination and the concurrent rise of Angola and Nigeria. Ghana fell from EUR 74.7 million to just EUR 0.3 million (−99.5%), likely reflecting the completion of major oil & gas projects. Conversely, Angola surged from EUR 40.5 million to EUR 155.1 million (+282.4%), becoming the EU's single largest non-EU export market by 2025. Nigeria's growth was even more dramatic in relative terms, jumping from EUR 1.1 million to EUR 41.8 million (+3,762%).

These swings are characteristic of project-driven demand in the oil & gas and offshore energy sectors, where flexible metal tubing is essential. Norway's steady growth (+75.0%) likely reflects ongoing North Sea energy activity, while the United Kingdom — still a top destination at EUR 94.1 million — saw a modest 9.4% decline, possibly linked to post-Brexit trade frictions and project cycles.

The United States became the EU's fastest-growing major import source

On the import side, the United States saw the largest proportional increase among major suppliers, rising 112.0% from EUR 29.0 million to EUR 61.4 million. Türkiye remained the largest import partner (EUR 75.1 million, +59.7%), followed by China (EUR 67.5 million, +73.9%). India more than doubled its shipments (+104.6%), reaching EUR 17.3 million.

France consolidated EU export leadership; Denmark emerged dramatically

Among EU member states, France was the dominant exporter throughout the period, growing from EUR 296.8 million to EUR 426.5 million (+43.7%) and accounting for nearly half of all EU exports by 2025. Germany remained the second-largest exporter at EUR 176.9 million (+25.8%).

The most remarkable shift was Denmark, whose exports surged from EUR 6.6 million to EUR 149.9 million (+2,177%), with a peak of EUR 188.7 million during the period. Denmark's revealed comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.317) places it among the most specialised EU producers, and its export boom likely reflects its strong position in offshore wind and North Sea energy supply chains.

On the import side, France also saw the fastest growth (+192.4%, from EUR 24.0 million to EUR 70.2 million), followed by Spain (+113.1%) and the Netherlands (+108.2%).

Market concentration declined on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell from 1,755 to 1,467 (−16.4%), while the export HHI declined from 867 to 769 (−11.3%). On the export side, the relatively low and declining HHI reflects the diversification into new African and American markets. On the import side, the decline from a higher base indicates that while the EU's import supply was already moderately concentrated, sourcing has become somewhat more diversified — though Türkiye and China still dominate.

3. Rising Unit Values, Segment Divergence, and Outlier Supply Shocks

Price dynamics over the decade reveal a general upward trend in unit values, significant differences between product sub-segments, and notable shock events linked to global disruptions.

Unit values rose on both sides, with import prices growing faster

Export unit values increased by 23.1%, from EUR 16,776 per tonne to EUR 20,647 per tonne, though the path was volatile — prices dipped to a period low of EUR 11,335 per tonne in 2021 (when export volumes surged to near their peak) before rebounding sharply. Import unit values rose faster, climbing 40.1% from EUR 7,898 to EUR 11,069 per tonne.

The persistent price gap between exports (EUR 20,647/t) and imports (EUR 11,069/t) indicates that the EU specialises in higher-value-added flexible tubing, while importing lower-cost products — a pattern consistent with the EU's advanced manufacturing base producing premium, specification-grade tubing for demanding applications.

Iron and steel tubing dominates and expanded its share

The product segment breakdown reveals that iron and steel tubing (CN 830710) is by far the dominant sub-segment, accounting for 93.7% of EU export value and 78.9% of import value by 2025.

Iron/steel tubing exports grew 76.0% in value and 48.3% in volume. Non-ferrous tubing (CN 830790), by contrast, saw export volumes decline from 3,941 tonnes to 2,392 tonnes (−39.3%), yet export value edged up 7.9% — because unit prices surged 76.6% to EUR 23,861 per tonne, overtaking the iron/steel segment. This suggests a premiumisation trend, with EU producers increasingly focusing on specialised, higher-value non-ferrous tubing (e.g., copper, aluminium alloys) for niche applications while ceding commodity-grade volume.

On the import side, both segments grew, but iron/steel imports expanded faster (+105.6% in value versus +68.4% for non-ferrous), driven by a combination of volume growth (+43.5%) and significant price increases (+43.3%).

Export volatility was highest in African and Latin American markets

The coefficient of variation of export values was highest for several African and Latin American partners, reflecting the project-driven and episodic nature of demand:

• Trinidad and Tobago: CV = 1.87
• Australia: CV = 1.61
• Nigeria: CV = 1.47
• Ghana: CV = 1.45
• Angola: CV = 1.31

By contrast, Switzerland (CV = 0.07), the United States (CV = 0.27), and Norway (CV = 0.59) showed more stable export flows.

On the import side, volatility was generally lower, with China (CV = 0.12) and Türkiye (CV = 0.15) providing stable supply, while Serbia (CV = 0.80) and Brazil (CV = 0.98) were more erratic.

Three notable price shocks were detected in 2021–2022

The shock detection analysis identified three significant price shocks in EU exports:

The Brazil shock in 2021 coincided with the post-pandemic commodity boom and supply-chain bottlenecks that drove up metal prices globally. The Trinidad & Tobago and Nigeria shocks in 2022 — both oil-producing nations — are consistent with the surge in energy-sector investment following the 2021–2022 oil price rally, which created acute demand for specialised industrial tubing at elevated prices. These were, however, relatively small in terms of overall trade share and did not destabilise EU export performance at the aggregate level.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's flexible metal tubing sector underwent a structural transformation. The bloc significantly expanded its role as a global net exporter, with the trade surplus reaching EUR 578.4 million by 2025, supported by a near-tripling of domestic production volumes. The geographic footprint of EU exports shifted markedly: traditional West African markets like Ghana gave way to new frontiers in Angola, Nigeria, and Norway, driven by cyclical energy-sector investments. Among EU member states, France consolidated its export leadership while Denmark emerged as a major player, likely leveraging its offshore energy expertise.

Price dynamics reflected both global macroeconomic forces — the post-pandemic recovery and the 2022 energy shock — and a structural premiumisation trend, particularly in non-ferrous tubing, where export volumes declined but unit values surged. Import prices rose faster than export prices, widening the value gap that underscores the EU's comparative advantage in higher-specification products.

Looking at vulnerability indicators, the EU's strong net-exporter position and declining market concentration suggest limited trade-dependency risk. However, the episodic nature of demand from key African energy markets introduces revenue volatility that EU producers and policymakers should continue to monitor.