Market evolution: Men's cotton briefs (CN 610711) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in men's or boys' cotton underpants and briefs (customs code 610711) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on Eurostat trade data covering imports, exports, production volumes, and concentration metrics for the European Union trading with non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU's trade profile in this product category has been reshaped by three overarching dynamics: a dramatic expansion of imports that has widened the trade deficit, a profound collapse in domestic production, and a geographic reconfiguration of supply chains toward South and Southeast Asia. The result is a market that is now structurally dependent on extra-EU sourcing, with rising import concentration and notable vulnerability to supply-side shocks.

1. A Widening Structural Deficit Fueled by Surging Imports

EU imports grew far faster than exports, deepening the trade gap

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 610711 surged in both value and volume. Import value rose from €697 million to €1.07 billion (+53.7%), while import quantity in tonnes grew by 82.8% — from 44,518 tonnes to 81,383 tonnes. The number of items imported climbed from approximately 538 million to 794 million pieces (+47.8%). Over the same period, export value grew more modestly from €128 million to €190 million (+48.6%), and export tonnage rose only 16.0% (from 3,976 tonnes to 4,612 tonnes). Critically, export volumes in pieces actually fell by 15.1%, from 46 million to 39 million items, suggesting that EU exports shifted toward higher-weight (and higher-value) products rather than growing in unit terms.

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Unit price dynamics confirm diverging market positions

A striking feature is the divergence in unit prices between imports and exports. The average import price per tonne fell from €15,665 to €13,173 (−15.9%), while the average export price per tonne rose from €32,205 to €41,254 (+28.1%). Similarly, the per-item import price barely moved (€1.30 → €1.35, +3.9%), whereas the per-item export price nearly doubled from €2.78 to €4.86 (+75.1%). This pattern indicates that the EU increasingly imports lower-cost commodity underwear while exporting fewer but more premium-positioned items — likely designer or niche products — to non-EU markets. The EU's role is thus evolving from manufacturer to importer at the mass-market end, while retaining a specialised export niche.

Net import reliance nearly tripled, signalling deepening dependency

The net import reliance ratio — measuring the trade deficit as a share of apparent consumption — rose from 39.4% in 2015 to 87.6% in 2025, an increase of 122.2%. This means that nearly nine out of every ten items consumed in the EU now come from outside the bloc (net of exports). This metric reached its maximum in 2025 and its minimum in 2015, indicating a monotonic deterioration of EU self-sufficiency throughout the period. Export propensity also surged from 22.4% to 146.1% — a 552% increase — reflecting that the EU now exports more items than it domestically produces, suggesting significant re-export or processing-trade activity on top of the production decline.

2. A Production Collapse and the Rise of Asian Sourcing

EU domestic production has nearly disappeared

The most dramatic structural shift in this market is the near-total erosion of EU manufacturing. Production volumes fell from 189 million items in 2015 to approximately 30 million items in 2025, a collapse of 84.1%. Production value declined from €455 million to €140 million (−69.3%). The value decline being smaller than the volume decline implies that surviving EU producers have shifted toward higher-value output. Nevertheless, the scale of the contraction is enormous: the EU has lost roughly six out of every seven items it once produced domestically over the course of a single decade.

This collapse has been the fundamental driver of the import surge and the widening trade deficit documented above. With domestic capacity shrinking so rapidly, EU retailers and brands have had no choice but to increase their reliance on external suppliers.

Bangladesh has overtaken China as the EU's primary supplier

The geographic composition of imports has undergone a significant rebalancing. China remained the largest single supplier throughout the period, with imports rising from €255 million to €344 million (+35.0%). However, the most dramatic growth came from Bangladesh, which surged from €109 million to €357 million (+226.4%) — making it the single largest supplier by value in 2025. Pakistan also more than doubled from €22 million to €50 million (+125.2%), while Sri Lanka grew by 50.2% (€63M → €94M) and India by 13.0% (€50M → €56M). Türkiye grew 68.5% from €20M to €34M.

See import partners breakdown

Bangladesh's explosive growth reflects its well-established position as a low-cost garment manufacturing hub, supported by EU preferential trade arrangements (Everything But Arms). The relative stagnation of Albania — despite its geographic proximity to the EU — suggests that cost competitiveness matters more than logistics proximity in this high-volume, low-margin segment.

Import concentration has increased despite supplier diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,804 to 2,299 (+27.4%). Although the EU sources from multiple countries, the rapid growth of Bangladesh has actually increased concentration rather than reducing it. The HHI for imports by volume also rose (from 2,072 to 2,241, +8.1%). On the export side, concentration moved in the opposite direction: the export HHI by value fell sharply from 3,362 to 1,411 (−58.0%), indicating that EU exports have become much more diversified across destination markets — shifting from a UK-heavy pattern to a broader portfolio including Switzerland, Norway, and Türkiye.

EU import-reporting geography reflects the role of logistics hubs

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands emerged as the dominant import reporter, with reported imports surging from €141 million to €309 million (+119.1%). This likely reflects the Rotterdam port logistics effect, where goods destined for multiple EU markets are customs-cleared in the Netherlands. Poland's imports grew even more dramatically from €12 million to €64 million (+418.1%), potentially reflecting the country's growing role as a garment distribution and light-manufacturing hub. Among EU exporters, the Netherlands also led (€44M → €58M), followed by Italy (€27M → €40M) and Germany (€12M → €29M, +133.5%).

3. Shocks, Volatility, and Growing Vulnerability

Supply-side price shocks have punctuated the period

The shock detection analysis identifies three notable events:

1. China import price shock (2018): An abnormality score of 13.3 and a price shift of −23.1%, occurring when China still accounted for 40% of EU import value. This likely reflected competitive devaluation of the yuan and overcapacity in Chinese textile manufacturing.
2. Türkiye import price shock (2020): A smaller shock (abnormality 5.1, −6.2% price shift), coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic and Turkish lira depreciation.
3. Türkiye export price shock (2021): The most extreme event, with an abnormality score of 22.3 and a price shift of +159.3% in EU exports to Türkiye. This spike, at a time when Türkiye accounted for 6.1% of EU export value, may reflect supply-chain disruptions, currency effects, or a shift in the product mix of EU exports to Türkiye toward higher-value items.

Partner-level volatility varies significantly

The coefficient of variation (CV) of bilateral trade flows reveals markedly different stability profiles:

China and Albania are the most stable import sources (CV ≈ 0.17), while Pakistan (CV = 0.84) and the UK (CV = 0.97) are highly volatile. On the export side, Türkiye is the most volatile destination (CV = 0.90), followed by Ukraine (CV = 0.59). The UK's high export volatility (CV = 0.45) likely reflects the disruption caused by Brexit, which fundamentally altered the trade relationship mid-period.

The EU's export profile has been reshaped by Brexit and new market openings

Looking at export partners, the United Kingdom was the EU's dominant non-EU export destination in 2015 at €71 million but declined to €50 million by 2025 (−29.9%). This decline — unique among the EU's major export partners — is almost certainly a consequence of Brexit, which introduced new customs frictions and regulatory barriers from January 2021. Meanwhile, Switzerland surged from €15 million to €41 million (+171.1%), Norway from €2.2 million to €10.3 million (+366.4%), and Türkiye from €1.8 million to €15.9 million (+767.5%). The export concentration HHI falling from 3,362 to 1,411 confirms that EU exports have successfully diversified away from near-total dependence on the UK.

Denmark and the Netherlands lead EU specialisation, while large economies underperform

Among EU Member States, Denmark displays the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) at 0.54, followed by the Netherlands (0.37) and Croatia (0.36). Poland (RSCA = 0.24) and Portugal (RSCA = 0.01) are marginally specialised. At the other extreme, Ireland (RSCA = −0.98), Luxembourg (−0.97), and Cyprus (−0.95) show no meaningful specialisation in this product, which is unsurprising given their economic profiles. Notably, Italy — despite being a major EU exporter of textile products overall — does not appear among the most specialised Member States for this specific cotton underwear code, suggesting its competitive advantage lies in other, higher-value textile categories.

Conclusion

The EU market for men's cotton briefs (CN 610711) has undergone a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has collapsed by over 84% in volume, creating a vacuum that has been filled by surging imports — principally from Bangladesh, which has overtaken China as the leading supplier. The trade deficit has widened to €882 million, and net import reliance has reached nearly 88%, meaning the EU is now deeply dependent on extra-EU sourcing for a basic consumer good. While EU exports have diversified successfully away from the UK toward Switzerland, Norway, and other markets, the overall scale of exports remains modest relative to imports. Import concentration has risen, and several bilateral relationships — notably with Pakistan and the UK — exhibit high volatility. The combination of collapsing domestic capacity, rising import dependency, and concentrated sourcing creates a structural vulnerability that policymakers may wish to monitor, particularly in the context of supply-chain resilience strategies and evolving trade policy frameworks.