Market evolution: Massage apparatus (CN 90191090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in mechano-therapy appliances, massage apparatus, and psychological aptitude-testing apparatus (excluding electrical vibratory-massage apparatus) classified under customs code 90191090 over the 2015–2025 period. The EU is a net importer of these products, and the period saw significant structural shifts: import values grew by 63.8%, reaching €684 million in 2025, while exports increased by 60.1% to €302 million. The trade deficit widened from €229 million to €382 million. Beyond aggregate figures, the period was characterised by a pronounced shift in sourcing geography, growing concentration on Chinese supply, and a notable increase in the EU's net import reliance—from a marginal 6.3% in 2015 to a substantial 68.4% in 2025.

I. A Market Shaped by Growing Import Dependence and Diverging Price Dynamics

The EU trade deficit in massage apparatus deepened significantly over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade deficit in CN 90191090 products widened from approximately €229 million to €382 million—an increase of 66.9%. The gap was most pronounced around 2020–2021, when the deficit peaked at an estimated €846 million, likely reflecting pandemic-era surges in demand for wellness and therapeutic products combined with disrupted European production. While the deficit subsequently narrowed, it has remained structurally larger than at the start of the period.

The net import reliance indicator—which measures the share of domestic consumption satisfied by net imports—rose from 6.3% in 2015 to a peak of 81.0% before settling at 68.4% in 2025. This dramatic shift suggests that European production, while growing in volume, has increasingly focused on export markets rather than displacing imports on the domestic market.

Import and export price trajectories diverged, revealing structural asymmetries

A striking feature of the decade is the divergence in unit prices between EU imports and exports. EU export prices stood at €32,700 per tonne in 2015 and declined to €30,223 per tonne by 2025 (−7.6%), while import prices rose from €6,617/t to €8,529/t (+28.9%). This near-fivefold price gap indicates that the EU exports higher-value, likely more sophisticated or branded products while importing larger volumes of lower-cost goods—predominantly from Asian manufacturers.

The rising import price may reflect a combination of factors: post-pandemic logistics cost inflation, gradual upgrading of Chinese product quality, and possibly tariff or regulatory compliance costs. Meanwhile, the mild decline in export prices suggests competitive pressure on European producers in their key destination markets.

Export volumes grew faster than import volumes, but from a much smaller base

EU export quantities rose by 73.0% (from 5,772 tonnes to 9,984 tonnes), outpacing the 27.1% growth in imports (from 63,093 tonnes to 80,192 tonnes). However, in absolute terms, the EU imported roughly eight times the volume it exported in 2025. Export volumes peaked at 11,198 tonnes before moderating, while import volumes reached a remarkable 142,215 tonnes at their zenith—nearly double the 2025 level—suggesting significant year-to-year volatility in inbound shipments.

II. China's Dominance of EU Imports Deepened While Export Destinations Remained More Diversified

China consolidated its position as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier to the EU

The most consequential structural shift over 2015–2025 was the deepening of Chinese dominance in EU imports of CN 90191090 products. Imports from China rose from €250.5 million to €520.0 million (+107.6%), meaning that by 2025, China accounted for approximately 76% of all extra-EU imports by value. This represents a substantial concentration of supply risk.

The decline in imports from several other partners—particularly the United States, Canada, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom—reinforces the picture of a market where Chinese suppliers have gained share both in absolute and relative terms. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 4,002 to 5,901 (+47.5%), confirming the increasing supplier concentration. In volume terms, the HHI also increased from 7,098 to 8,230 (+15.9%), albeit more moderately.

Mexico stands out as a secondary supplier showing strong growth (+166.4%), potentially reflecting nearshoring trends or the role of Mexican manufacturing in global massage equipment supply chains.

EU exports remained geographically diversified, led by the United States and the United Kingdom

EU exports showed a markedly different geographic pattern, with the United States emerging as the primary destination. Exports to the US grew from €20.3 million to €76.5 million (+276.8%), making it the top extra-EU export market by 2025—up from third place in 2015. The United Kingdom remained the second-largest market (€37.8M → €49.5M, +31.1%), followed by Switzerland (€28.5M → €32.2M, +13.0%).

Notable shifts include the decline of Russia as an export destination (−29.4%), which likely reflects the impact of sanctions following 2022, and the rapid growth of exports to Canada (+142.0%). The export HHI rose only modestly from 930 to 1,123 (+20.7%), remaining well below the import HHI, indicating that the EU's export base is significantly more diversified than its import base.

EU member states exhibited distinct specialisation profiles in intra-EU and extra-EU trade

Analysis of specialisation in 2025 reveals that the Netherlands (RSCA: 0.385) and Hungary (RSCA: 0.344) are the most specialised EU exporters in this product category, each exhibiting revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 2.0). Poland also emerged as a major exporter, with export values surging from €3.9 million to €45.9 million (+1,088%), and Hungary similarly grew from €2.5 million to €25.8 million (+936%). These Central European countries appear to have developed significant manufacturing capacity in this segment over the decade.

On the import side, the Netherlands (€42.7M → €112.5M, +163.2%), Germany (€75.3M → €116.6M, +54.8%), and France (€96.0M → €109.1M, +13.6%) were the largest importers by value in 2025.

III. Trade Shocks and Supply-Chain Vulnerabilities Emerged Alongside Strong Growth in European Production

Several price shocks were detected in EU export flows, reflecting geopolitical and market disruptions

The volatility analysis identified three significant price shocks in EU export flows over the period:

The most dramatic shock occurred in exports to the Russian Federation in 2022, where unit prices surged by 116.1%. This almost certainly reflects the imposition of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which restricted or disrupted trade flows and led to abnormal price dynamics in any remaining permitted transactions. This event carried an abnormality score of 9.0 (on a scale where higher values indicate greater deviation from normal patterns) and affected 8.7% of total EU export value.

The 2019 price spike in exports to the UAE and the 2023 price drop in exports to China represent secondary disruptions. The latter (-27.1%) may reflect competitive pressure or a shift in the composition of products traded with China.

Export volatility varied widely by partner, highlighting uneven market risks

The coefficient of variation in export values by destination reveals that Canada (CV: 0.91) and the United States (CV: 0.71) were the most volatile export markets, while Switzerland (CV: 0.14) and the United Kingdom (CV: 0.18) were the most stable. For imports, China (CV: 0.33) showed moderate volatility, while some smaller suppliers like the Dominican Republic (CV: 0.79) and Switzerland (CV: 0.65) showed high variability—though from very small bases.

This pattern suggests that while the US market offers significant growth potential (as evidenced by the +276.8% value increase), it also comes with considerably higher year-to-year unpredictability for EU exporters.

EU production expanded dramatically in volume, even as the trade deficit grew

Data from EU production volumes (measured in number of items) shows explosive growth: from 1.2 million units in 2015 to 10.0 million in 2025 (+723%), with a peak of 20.0 million units at one point during the period. Production value grew more modestly, from €240 million to €300 million (+25.0%), indicating that much of the volume growth involved lower-value items.

The simultaneous growth in both production and import reliance is not contradictory: it reflects the fact that the EU's export propensity—the ratio of exports to production—increased from 84.8% to 149.5%. European producers have increasingly oriented their output toward export markets, leaving the domestic EU market more reliant on imports, particularly from China. The trade intensity index also rose from 92.1% to 110.6%, confirming that the EU massage apparatus sector has become more deeply integrated into global trade flows.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU market for CN 90191090 products experienced robust growth in both trade flows, but the trajectory was uneven. Imports grew faster and from a larger base, driven overwhelmingly by Chinese supply, while exports—though growing strongly in percentage terms—remained a fraction of import volumes. The EU's net import reliance surged to nearly 70%, and import concentration on China intensified significantly. European production expanded dramatically in unit terms, but producers increasingly prioritised export markets (notably the United States) over the domestic EU market, deepening the structural import dependence. Geopolitical shocks, particularly the 2022 disruption of trade with Russia, added new layers of volatility to an already complex trading landscape. Looking ahead, the EU's heavy reliance on a single supplier—combined with moderate export diversification and rising export propensity among EU producers—suggests that supply-chain resilience and strategic autonomy in this product segment warrant continued attention.