Market evolution: Maize other than seed (CN 100590) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in maize (excluding seed for sowing, CN code 100590) between 2015 and 2025. The period has been marked by significant volatility and a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position. Overall, the EU has transformed from a more balanced participant to a structurally deficit region, heavily reliant on imports to meet its demand. This report will detail the trade volume dynamics, the changing landscape of trade partners, and the impact of price shocks and market concentration.

I. A Widening Structural Deficit: The EU's Growing Import Reliance

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade in maize has been characterized by a pronounced structural shift, moving from a modest trade deficit to a substantial and growing one. This change is driven by divergent trends in imports and exports.

Imports have surged while exports have contracted. The value of EU maize imports increased by 106.0% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €1.95 billion to €4.01 billion. In quantity terms, imports grew by 62.5%, from 11.4 million tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes. Conversely, the value of exports fell by 22.3% (from €726 million to €564 million), and exported quantities plummeted by 41.4% (from 4.3 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes) (General Overview).

Metric	2015	2025	Change (%)
Import Value (€ bn)	1.95	4.01	+106.0%
Import Quantity (m t)	11.39	18.52	+62.5%
Export Value (€ bn)	0.73	0.56	-22.3%
Export Quantity (m t)	4.27	2.50	-41.4%
Trade Balance (€ bn)	-1.22	-3.45	-182.3%

The trade deficit has widened dramatically. The EU's trade balance in maize deteriorated from a deficit of -€1.22 billion in 2015 to -€3.45 billion in 2025. The peak deficit occurred in 2022, reaching -€5.83 billion, coinciding with the period of most acute global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the war in Ukraine.
Rising unit prices reflect tighter global markets. Both import and export unit prices increased significantly over the period. The average import price rose by 26.7% (from €171/t to €217/t), while the average export price increased by 32.7% (from €170/t to €226/t). This indicates that the EU has faced costlier maize on global markets, a factor that has compounded the impact of rising import volumes on the trade balance.

II. Shifting Alliances: Volatility in Partner Concentration and Geopolitics

The sources of the EU's maize imports and the destinations for its exports have undergone significant restructuring, influenced by geopolitical events and evolving competitive advantages.

Ukraine has consolidated its position as the EU's primary supplier. Ukraine was already the top import partner in 2015 (value: €1.29 billion). By 2025, its share had grown, with imports valued at €1.71 billion. However, its dominance is not absolute; the concentration of imports has actually decreased. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell by 36.7% from 4,580 to 2,899, indicating a diversification of import sources away from a few dominant suppliers (Market Structure).

The Americas have surged as suppliers, while some European neighbours have faded. Brazil saw its export value to the EU grow by 212.1% to €583 million. The most dramatic shifts came from Canada (+1,489.1%) and the United States (+1,424.7%), whose combined imports to the EU grew from €98 million in 2015 to over €1.5 billion in 2025. In contrast, traditional regional suppliers like Serbia (-63.9%) and Russia (-100.0% to near zero) saw their presence collapse.

Top EU Maize Import Partners by Value (€ million)

Partner	2015	2025	Change (%)
Ukraine	1,290	1,715	+32.9%
Brazil	187	583	+212.1%
Canada	27	421	+1,489.1%
United States	72	1,092	+1,424.7%
Serbia	121	43	-63.9%
Russian Federation	91	0.03	-100.0%

EU export markets have become more concentrated and volatile. While the UK remains the most stable and largest export destination (value up 23.6% to €191 million), other major markets have seen extreme volatility. Exports to South Korea, for example, collapsed from €74.7 million in 2015 to just €148,000 in 2025 (-99.8%). Conversely, shipments to Lebanon grew by 145.4% to €71.5 million. The export-side HHI increased by 76.1%, signifying a greater focus on fewer, but larger, destination markets (Market Structure).

III. Price Shocks and Internal Re-allocation of Trade Flows

The maize market experienced several significant price shocks and periods of high volatility, which influenced trade patterns. Within the EU, there has also been a notable shift in which member states dominate import and export activities.

Distinct price shocks impacted key trade corridors. The data identifies several abnormal price events. In 2017, a major price shock for EU maize exports to Israel (+328.7% shift) and Iran (+139.9% shift) occurred. In 2022, a significant import price shock (+73.5% shift) was recorded for maize sourced from Canada (Volatility & Shocks). These shocks reflect the market's sensitivity to geopolitical, logistical, and climate-related disruptions.
Import dependency is now centered in Southern and Western Europe. The intra-EU geographical center of maize imports has shifted. Spain has seen its import value more than double (+117.5%) to €1.50 billion, becoming the EU's largest importing member state. Italy (+196.8% to €686 million) and Ireland (+225.6% to €353 million) have also grown significantly. In contrast, Germany's imports fell by 59.9% to €33 million (Top reporters).
Export leadership has shifted eastward within the EU. Romania has remained the EU's top maize exporter but saw its value decline by 38.4% to €250 million. Poland, however, emerged as a major exporter, with its value exploding from €2.3 million in 2015 to €79.7 million in 2025 (+3,333.8%). This indicates a potential re-allocation of export-oriented production or logistical flows towards newer Member States.

Conclusion

The EU maize market (CN 100590) between 2015 and 2025 has undergone a profound transformation. The Union has become structurally more dependent on foreign supply, with its import bill more than doubling and its trade deficit widening substantially. This dependency has been managed through a strategic diversification of suppliers, reducing reliance on any single country by a significant margin.

The market has been anything but stable, characterized by extreme price volatility and supply shocks that have reshaped bilateral trade flows. Internally, the responsibility for importing this critical feedstock has consolidated within southern European Member States, while export leadership shows signs of shifting eastward. Overall, the period highlights the EU's increasing integration into volatile global maize markets and the strategic challenges this poses for food and feed security.