Market evolution: Large gas turbines (CN 84118280) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in large gas turbines exceeding 50,000 kW (CN 84118280), excluding turbojets and turbopropellers, over the period 2015–2025. These turbines are critical capital goods used in power generation, industrial applications, and oil and gas infrastructure. The European Union has historically been one of the world's leading producers and exporters in this segment, with major manufacturers such as Siemens Energy (Germany), Ansaldo Energia (Italy), and formerly Alstom (France, now part of GE).

The data reveals a market that, while remaining strongly export-oriented, has undergone fundamental structural transformation over the decade. Three major dynamics stand out: a dramatic shift from volume-based to value-based trade with soaring unit prices, a significant geographic realignment of both export destinations and import sources, and an industrial consolidation within the EU that has concentrated export leadership among fewer member states while reshaping production patterns.

1. From Volume to Value: The Price Revolution in EU Gas Turbine Trade

The most striking feature of EU trade in large gas turbines over 2015–2025 is the divergence between physical quantities and monetary values. The EU has exported fewer units and less tonnage while simultaneously capturing substantially higher export revenues — a pattern pointing to a profound shift in product mix and market positioning.

1.1 EU exports grew in value while physical volumes contracted

Despite a modest 23.7% increase in export value (from €932.8 million in 2015 to €1,154.0 million in 2025), the mass of exports fell by 5.7% (from 13,496 tonnes to 12,730 tonnes). More dramatically, the number of individual turbine units exported collapsed by 86.1%, from 2,872 items in 2015 to just 399 in 2025.

The per-unit export price surged from approximately €325,000 per item in 2015 to nearly €2.9 million per item in 2025 — a 790.5% increase. This extraordinary escalation reflects a shift toward larger, more powerful, and more technologically advanced turbines. It also suggests that the EU's export basket has moved decisively toward premium, high-capacity units, possibly including advanced combined-cycle and hydrogen-ready gas turbines that command far higher prices than the smaller industrial turbines that appear to have been more prevalent in the earlier period.

1.2 Import prices rose even more sharply, driven by high-value sourcing

EU imports followed a similar pattern of declining volumes and surging prices, but with even more pronounced price dynamics. Import value rose 53.3% (from €97.5 million to €149.5 million), yet the number of imported items plunged by 91.4% (from 10,138 to 871), and import mass fell 36.1%. The per-item import price leapt by 1,683.9%, from €9,621 to €171,634.

The 2015 import data reveals a peculiar pattern: the very low per-unit import price (€9,621) alongside a very high item count (10,138) suggests that in that year, EU imports may have been dominated by component-level transactions, partial shipments, or re-imported parts rather than complete turbine assemblies. By 2025, imports consisted almost entirely of fewer, higher-value complete units or major assemblies — a compositional change that accounts for the extreme percentage increase in unit prices.

1.3 The EU trade surplus widened, confirming structural export strength

The EU maintained a strong positive trade balance throughout the period, growing from €835.2 million in 2015 to €1,004.5 million in 2025 (+20.3%). The surplus reached its peak at €1,253.5 million in an intermediate year. Net import reliance remained deeply negative throughout (ranging from −409.5% at its most extreme to −25.6% in 2025), confirming that the EU is a major net exporter in this segment. However, the net export intensity has moderated somewhat over the decade, with the reliance metric improving (becoming less negative) by 45.2%, suggesting that while the EU remains a dominant exporter, imports have grown in relative importance.

2. Shifting Geographies: The Reconfiguration of EU Gas Turbine Trade Partners

The geographic landscape of EU gas turbine trade underwent substantial realignment between 2015 and 2025. Traditional export markets declined or vanished entirely, while new destinations gained prominence. On the import side, the United States consolidated its position as the dominant supplier, while previously significant sources dried up.

2.1 The United States became the EU's premier export market

The most dramatic shift in EU export destinations was the rise of the United States. Exports to the US surged from €49.3 million in 2015 to €227.1 million in 2025, a 360.5% increase, making the US the largest single export destination by value. This likely reflects major US power generation projects sourcing European-manufactured turbines, potentially driven by the US energy transition, the expansion of gas-fired generation capacity, and the technological competitiveness of European OEMs in the large-turbine segment.

Qatar also grew significantly as an export destination, rising 67.4% from €75.6 million to €126.6 million, reflecting continued demand from the Gulf region's energy infrastructure development.

2.2 Several traditional export markets collapsed or disappeared

In stark contrast, several previously important export markets experienced dramatic declines:

• Egypt: fell from €162.3 million to essentially zero (−100%), suggesting the completion of major turbine supply contracts (likely for power plant projects) without replacement orders.
• Pakistan: similarly collapsed from €5.6 million to €191 (−100%), indicating the end of project-based supply relationships.
• Malaysia: showed extraordinary growth from near-zero (€2,600) to €17.6 million (+676,490%), suggesting the emergence of new power infrastructure projects.

2.3 Import sourcing consolidated around the United States and expanded to the United Kingdom

On the import side, the United States consolidated its role as the primary supplier to the EU, with imports rising 77.8% from €69.8 million to €124.1 million. This reflects the significant presence of GE (a US-based manufacturer) in the European power generation market, particularly following GE's acquisition of Alstom's power and grid businesses in 2015.

The United Kingdom emerged as the second-largest import source, with imports surging from just €13,830 in 2015 to €13.7 million in 2025 — a remarkable 98,988% increase that likely reflects post-Brexit trade dynamics. After Brexit, the UK was classified as a non-EU country, and turbine shipments from UK-based operations of multinational manufacturers (e.g., Siemens, which has UK manufacturing facilities) began to appear in the data as imports rather than intra-EU flows.

Canada also grew substantially as an import source (from €987,102 to €11.1 million, +1,027%), while previously minor sources like Pakistan (−98.8%) and Taiwan (−99.7%) essentially disappeared.

2.4 Trade volatility varied significantly by partner

The coefficient of variation analysis reveals that export flows to large infrastructure markets like China (CV: 0.53), Bangladesh (0.42), and the United States (0.70) were relatively stable, reflecting ongoing procurement relationships. In contrast, import volatility was considerably higher, with imports from Taiwan (CV: 2.45), Japan (2.82), and China (2.74) showing extreme year-to-year fluctuations — consistent with occasional, project-driven purchases rather than steady trade flows.

Several price and supply shocks were detected: a major price shock in exports to Türkiye in 2017 (abnormality score: 149.7, with a +693% price shift), a supply shock to Myanmar in 2018 (complete cessation, −100%), and a price shock in US exports in 2021 (abnormality: 58.1, +524.1% price shift). These events are characteristic of the project-based nature of large gas turbine trade, where individual contract wins or losses can produce dramatic annual fluctuations.

3. Industrial Consolidation and the Redistribution of EU Manufacturing Capacity

The period saw significant changes in the internal structure of EU gas turbine production and trade, with certain member states rising to dominance while others receded, and overall EU production value nearly doubling.

3.1 EU production value nearly doubled over the decade

EU production value grew from approximately €1,642 million in 2015 to €3,200 million in 2025, a 94.8% increase. Production in installed power capacity (kW) grew even more dramatically, though some of this variation may reflect data collection changes. This near-doubling of production value aligns with the broader trend toward higher-value turbines and reflects strong demand for new gas-fired power generation capacity globally, as well as the ongoing transition from coal to gas in many markets.

3.2 Germany emerged as the EU's dominant exporter, while France declined sharply

A clear restructuring of EU member state export leadership occurred:

Germany became the EU's largest exporter by a wide margin, nearly tripling its export value and capturing over half of all EU exports in 2025. Italy also grew strongly, consolidating its position as the second-largest EU exporter — consistent with the competitive position of Ansaldo Energia. France, which was the largest exporter in 2015 (€430.6 million), saw its exports collapse by 74.5% to just €110.0 million. This decline almost certainly reflects the transfer of Alstom's power turbine business to GE, which reclassified what were previously French-origin exports as US-origin or restructured the supply chain. Sweden and Belgium emerged as new, if smaller, export players.

3.3 Italy achieved the highest export specialisation among EU members

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals the following competitive positioning:

Italy displays a very high Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA of 9.37) and a strong Normalised RCA (RSCA of 0.81), indicating that Italy is by far the most specialised EU member in this product category. Italy accounted for 75.1% of EU production in this segment despite representing only 8.0% of total EU exports across all products — a testament to the concentrated, niche nature of Italian gas turbine manufacturing. Germany, while capturing a much larger share of total EU exports (21.2%), shows only modest specialisation (RCA 1.18), reflecting its highly diversified export portfolio.

3.4 Import patterns within the EU also shifted significantly

The EU member states' import patterns underwent dramatic changes:

Italy's massive increase in imports (from €4.5 million to €94.2 million) is particularly noteworthy given its strong export specialisation. This may reflect the fact that Italy, as a major turbine manufacturer, also imports turbines or major components from non-EU sources (such as GE/US) for assembly or for projects where it acts as an integrator. Alternatively, some of this import growth may relate to service-related turbine exchanges or power plant projects sourcing complementary equipment.

Belgium, Slovakia, and the Netherlands — all of which were significant importers in 2015 — saw imports decline sharply, suggesting that the project-driven import surges of the earlier period were not repeated.

3.5 Export concentration increased modestly, while import concentration remained elevated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by destination rose from 965 to 1,476 (+52.9%) — moving from a highly competitive/diversified market to a moderately concentrated one. This reflects the growing dominance of the US market in EU exports.

Import concentration was substantially higher throughout the period (HHI of 5,995 in 2015, rising to 7,029 in 2025, +17.2%). These levels indicate a concentrated import market, consistent with the dominance of a small number of major non-EU turbine manufacturers (primarily GE from the United States) serving the European market. The slight further increase in import concentration suggests that the supplier base has narrowed rather than broadened.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in large gas turbines (CN 84118280) over 2015–2025 tells a story of an industry undergoing fundamental transformation while maintaining its core strength as a net exporter. The trade surplus remained robust at over €1 billion in 2025, but the nature of trade changed profoundly: fewer, more expensive units replaced the higher-volume, lower-value transactions of the earlier period. This reflects the global shift toward larger, more efficient, and technologically advanced gas turbines — including those designed for hydrogen co-firing and flexible power generation — that command premium prices.

Geographically, the market has reoriented sharply toward the United States as the EU's primary export destination, while the Alstom-to-GE acquisition appears to have reshaped both the French export decline and the growth in US-origin imports. The post-Brexit reclassification of UK trade added a new dimension to import flows. Within the EU, Germany and Italy have consolidated their positions as the leading exporters, with Italy demonstrating the highest specialisation, while France's role has diminished significantly.

Looking ahead, several structural factors — the EU's energy transition policies, the growth of renewable energy reducing long-term demand for new gas-fired capacity, and increasing competition from Asian manufacturers (particularly from China, which is investing heavily in large turbine capabilities) — will shape the next phase of this market's evolution. The high unit values observed in 2025 suggest that the EU continues to compete at the technological frontier, but the sustainability of this position will depend on continued innovation and the ability to adapt turbines for lower-carbon applications.