Market evolution: Injection moulding machines (CN 847710) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in injection-moulding machines for working rubber or plastics (Customs code 847710) over the period 2015–2025. The product under review sits within the broader machinery chapter (HS 84) and corresponds to PRODCOM code 28.96.10.10. It is a capital-goods category of strategic importance to the plastics and rubber processing industries across Europe.

Over the decade examined, the EU's trade position in this product underwent a profound transformation. The Union remained a net exporter throughout, yet its trade surplus shrank from €523 million in 2015 to just €158 million in 2025—a contraction of 69.8%. This erosion was driven by a simultaneous decline in export values (–28.5%) and a sharp rise in import values (+48.8%). The following sections unpack the main dynamics behind these headline shifts.

I. Export retrenchment: falling volumes, shifting composition, and a reorganisation of the EU supply base

EU exports declined in both value and tonnage while unit counts rose

Over the full period, the total value of EU extra-EU exports fell from €802 million (2015) to €573 million (2025), a drop of 28.5%. Export tonnage fell by an identical 28.5% (from 64,020 t to 45,794 t), indicating that the decline was driven primarily by volume rather than by pricing. Indeed, the average export price per tonne remained virtually unchanged at approximately €12,500/t throughout the period.

However, a different picture emerges when looking at the supplementary unit count (number of items). The number of machines exported actually rose by 19.3%, from roughly 409,507 pieces in 2015 to 488,492 in 2025. Yet the per-unit value collapsed by 40.0%, from €1,955 per piece to €1,173 per piece. This divergence suggests a structural shift in the EU's export mix: EU manufacturers appear to have moved toward exporting a greater volume of smaller or lower-value-added machines—or components counted as items—while losing ground in the higher-tonnage, higher-value segments.

Germany's dominance waned as Italy and Austria gained ground

The intra-EU reorganisation of production is striking. Germany remained the largest EU exporter, but its share shrank dramatically—from €500 million in 2015 to €333 million in 2025 (–33.4%). In contrast, Italy's exports more than doubled, rising from €68 million to €159 million (+134.3%), while Austria grew from €320 million to €415 million (+29.7%). Together, Austria and Italy now account for a much larger share of the EU's external shipments than at the start of the period.

From a specialisation perspective, Germany still shows a high RCA of 2.67 and controls 56.5% of EU export production value for this product, but several smaller member states (Luxembourg, Slovakia, Slovenia) also display positive comparative advantage, pointing to a more distributed—though still German-centric—manufacturing base.

Traditional export markets softened across the board

Across all major partner countries, EU export values declined between 2015 and 2025:

The United Kingdom's steep decline (–36.8%) is consistent with post-Brexit trade frictions and currency effects. Losses in Türkiye and Mexico likely reflect macroeconomic instability in those markets during parts of the period. The modest drop in shipments to the United States, the EU's single largest export destination, is notable given that it occurred despite the broader growth in US manufacturing investment—suggesting increased competition from Asian suppliers.

II. The Chinese import surge and the structural narrowing of the EU trade surplus

Imports grew at nearly 50% in value, driven overwhelmingly by China

The EU's total extra-EU imports of injection-moulding machines rose from €279 million (2015) to €415 million (2025), an increase of 48.8%. Tonnage grew at a comparable pace (+46.7%), while per-tonne prices edged up only 1.4%—confirming that the import surge was volume-driven.

The dominant story within this growth is China. EU imports from China tripled from €67 million to €188 million (+180.5%), making China by far the EU's largest single supplier. This was not merely a price-driven phenomenon: import supplementary units from China surged by over 1,400% (though from a low base), while per-unit prices fell dramatically, confirming that Chinese manufacturers are penetrating the EU market with competitively priced, potentially mid- to lower-range machines.

Japan and Switzerland, home to high-end manufacturers such as Fanuc, Sumitomo (SHI) Demag, and KraussMaffei (now Chinese-owned), also posted solid growth, though at a far more modest pace than China. The decline from South Korea and Taiwan may reflect shifting production footprints, with some output relocated to mainland China.

Import concentration intensified sharply

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,647 in 2015 to 2,790 in 2025 (+69.4%), crossing the threshold from moderate to high concentration. This was driven almost entirely by China's growing dominance; by 2025, China alone accounted for 45% of import value.

By contrast, the export-side HHI remained stable (–3.5%), confirming that the EU continues to sell to a diversified set of destinations—principally the US, Mexico, China, the UK, and Türkiye—though none individually dominates to the same degree as China dominates imports.

The trade surplus narrowed from €523 million to €158 million

The combined effect of declining exports and rising imports was a 69.8% erosion in the EU's trade surplus, from €523 million to €158 million. The sharpest deterioration occurred between 2018 and 2021, coinciding with the tail end of China's industrial upgrading strategy ("Made in China 2025"), the COVID-19 pandemic, and subsequent supply-chain disruptions. Despite the EU remaining a net exporter, the pace of convergence—net import reliance moved from –37.4% to –11.9%—raises questions about medium-term competitiveness.

III. Strategic implications: declining export orientation and rising vulnerability to import competition

EU production volumes fell while values held steady

According to PRODCOM data, EU production of injection-moulding machines in unit terms declined from approximately 26,663 items in 2015 to 18,000 in 2025 (–32.5%), while production value rose from €2.0 billion to €2.2 billion (+10.0%). This implies that EU manufacturers produced fewer machines at higher average values per unit—consistent with a strategic move upmarket toward larger, more automated, and higher-specification systems. However, this also means the EU is ceding the mid-market segment, precisely the space where Chinese exports are growing fastest.

Export propensity and trade intensity both declined

Two key vulnerability indicators moved in an unfavourable direction:

Export propensity — the share of domestic production exported outside the EU — fell most sharply, from 40% to 26.3%. This could reflect both a shrinking competitive edge in global markets and a possible reorientation toward intra-EU demand. Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of domestic output) also declined, suggesting that the EU's injection-moulding machine sector is becoming somewhat less integrated into global trade flows overall—though it remains more exposed than many other capital-goods sectors.

Price volatility and supply-shock risks are concentrated in specific corridors

The coefficient of variation of import flows reveals wide price swings for some supply partners. Imports from Hong Kong (CV 1.53) and Malaysia (CV 1.59) were the most volatile, although these represent smaller trade values. Among major partners, Canada (CV 0.34), Taiwan (CV 0.53), and the United States (CV 0.47) showed elevated import-price instability.

On the export side, detected shock events include an extreme price anomaly in exports to Ukraine in 2017 (abnormality score 122.2, +70.4% shift) and a notable spike in exports to Morocco in 2018 (+61.1%). A third, more moderate shock appeared in exports to Brazil in 2021 (+36.9%), likely linked to post-pandemic restocking. These events, while episodic, illustrate the fragility of smaller export corridors and the degree to which the EU's export performance remains sensitive to destination-market conditions.

Conclusion

The EU's injection-moulding machine industry entered the 2015–2025 period from a position of pronounced trade strength—exporting nearly three times more (in value) than it imported—and exited with its surplus reduced by two-thirds. This was not the result of a single shock but rather of two converging trends: a steady erosion of export competitiveness across almost all major destination markets, and a rapid expansion of Chinese imports into the EU.

The EU appears to be specialising further upstream—producing fewer but more expensive machines—while Chinese manufacturers are filling the mid-market gap. Germany, long the sector's anchor, saw its export revenues fall by a third, partially offset by gains in Austria and Italy. Import-side concentration, now firmly in the high range, leaves the EU exposed to supply-chain risks centred on a single dominant partner.

Going forward, the key question is whether the EU's strategy of moving upmarket can sustain its remaining trade surplus, or whether continued Chinese expansion—combined with competition from Japan and Switzerland—will narrow it further. The data suggests that without a significant acceleration in innovation or diversification of supply sources, the current trajectory points toward continued erosion of the EU's competitive position in this strategically important machinery segment.