Market evolution: High-power AC motors (CN 850153) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in high-power multi-phase AC motors (CN 850153, output > 75 kW) over the 2015–2025 period. These motors are critical industrial components used in manufacturing, energy, mining, oil & gas, water treatment, and — increasingly — electric traction. The analysis draws on Eurostat customs data aggregated at the EU level, covering trade with non-EU countries, as well as EU production figures. The product heading CN 850153 encompasses four subcategories: AC traction motors > 75 kW (CN 85015350), motors from 75–375 kW (CN 85015381), motors from 375–750 kW (CN 85015394), and motors above 750 kW (CN 85015399).

Over the decade, the EU has remained a net exporter of high-power AC motors, but the landscape has shifted profoundly. Import values have more than quadrupled while export values have roughly doubled, the trade surplus has narrowed, and a single sub-category — traction motors — has come to dominate both import and export flows, reflecting the accelerating global electrification of transport.

1. The traction-motor revolution reshaping EU trade flows

Traction motors have become the dominant import sub-segment by a wide margin

The most striking structural shift in CN 850153 trade is the explosive growth of traction motor imports (CN 85015350). In 2015, traction motors accounted for €64 million in EU imports — roughly one-quarter of total imports. By 2025, this figure had risen to €757 million, representing a 1,090% increase and making traction motors the single largest import sub-category, with a 74% share of total imports by value.

EU traction motor exports have surged in parallel

On the export side, traction motors have followed a remarkably similar trajectory. EU exports of traction motors grew from €68 million in 2015 to €550 million in 2025 (+706%). By 2025, traction motors constituted the second-largest export sub-segment by value, behind only the > 750 kW category (€567 million). Notably, the supplementary unit count for traction motor exports rose from 22,221 p/st in 2015 to 200,053 p/st in 2025 — nearly a nine-fold increase — indicating that the volume expansion has been even more dramatic than the value figures suggest, with average unit prices declining somewhat.

This mirrors the broader electrification of transport and EU industrial policy

The trajectory of traction motors is consistent with the accelerating electrification of rail transport and the broader shift toward electric mobility. The EU's Fit for 55 package, national decarbonisation strategies, and significant investment in rail infrastructure — supported by instruments such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility — have all driven demand for high-power traction motors. The fact that both imports and exports of this sub-segment surged suggests that the EU has become deeply embedded in a global value chain for traction drive systems, importing finished or semi-finished motors while also exporting high-value systems manufactured domestically.

2. A widening trade deficit masked by a persistent but eroding surplus

The EU remains a net exporter, but the margin has narrowed significantly

Across the full 2015–2025 period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 850153 at all times. However, this surplus eroded from €665 million in 2015 to €560 million in 2025 — a decline of 15.9%. The net import reliance metric, which remained negative throughout (confirming the EU's net-exporter status), moved from −31.6% to −35.2%.

Import growth has dramatically outpaced export growth

The core dynamic behind the narrowing surplus is straightforward: EU imports grew at roughly four times the rate of exports. Import values rose by 308% while export values rose by 78%. In volume terms (tonnes), the gap is narrower — import mass grew 30.6% against 14.5% for exports — suggesting that import prices have risen much faster. Indeed, the average import price per tonne increased by 213% (from €4,357/t to €13,623/t), while the average export price per tonne rose by 56% (from €12,204/t to €18,986/t). The convergence of these price levels — imports rising toward the export benchmark — may reflect a shift toward higher-value imports (particularly traction motors) rather than pure cost inflation.

EU production has expanded enormously, suggesting domestic demand is the true driver

Perhaps the most striking figure in the dataset is the evolution of EU production. Measured by supplementary units (number of items), EU production surged from 335,327 units in 2015 to 8,747,870 units in 2025 — a 2,509% increase. Production value more than tripled from €1.26 billion to €3.86 billion. This extraordinary expansion suggests that the EU is not simply importing more to substitute for declining domestic output; rather, domestic demand for high-power AC motors has grown so substantially that both production and imports have expanded simultaneously. The narrowing trade surplus reflects the fact that import demand has been growing faster than export capacity, not a hollowing out of EU manufacturing.

3. Shifting geography: China's dominance and new entrants in the EU's trade network

China has become the EU's single largest import source for high-power AC motors

The most significant geographic shift in EU imports has been the rise of China. EU imports from China grew from €88 million in 2015 to €436 million in 2025 — a 393% increase — making China the largest import partner by value. China's peak year was 2022 at €731 million, after which imports moderated — likely reflecting post-pandemic inventory adjustments and possibly the early effects of EU trade defence measures or supply-chain diversification.

Serbia and the United Kingdom have emerged as major new import sources

Two partner countries stand out for their extraordinary growth trajectories. Serbian imports into the EU surged by 2,946%, from just €2.7 million to €83.6 million, reflecting Serbia's integration into European manufacturing supply chains — likely linked to Chinese and other foreign direct investment in Serbian industrial capacity. The United Kingdom, which became a non-EU trading partner after Brexit in 2021, saw imports into the EU rise by 906% to €118.6 million. While some of this growth may partly reflect reclassification of intra-EU flows post-Brexit, the sustained upward trajectory through 2025 suggests genuine commercial flows.

EU export destinations show contrasting fortunes

On the export side, the most dramatic shift has been the collapse of exports to the Russian Federation — from €50 million in 2015 to €11.6 million in 2025 (−76.9%), with the steepest decline occurring after 2021 following the imposition of EU sanctions. In contrast, EU exports to the United States grew by 174% to €289 million, and exports to the United Kingdom rose by 191% to €125 million. Norway also emerged as a significant destination, with exports growing 140% to €85.6 million, likely driven by the country's extensive oil & gas and maritime sectors.

EU import concentration has increased, raising strategic vulnerability concerns

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,767 in 2015 to 2,199 in 2025, indicating moderately increasing concentration. China's dominant share is the primary driver. Meanwhile, the HHI for exports rose more sharply — from 693 to 1,079 — suggesting that EU exports, while still more diversified than imports, have become somewhat more concentrated on a smaller number of destination markets. Within the EU, Germany dominates both import and export flows, followed by Finland and Italy on the export side, reflecting the strong industrial base of these countries in electrical machinery manufacturing.

Conclusion

The EU market for high-power multi-phase AC motors (CN 850153) underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three interlinked dynamics stand out. First, the electrification of transport has propelled traction motors from a niche sub-segment to the single most important category in both imports and exports, reshaping the product composition of EU trade. Second, while the EU has remained a net exporter throughout, the dramatic pace of import growth — driven largely by China — has eroded the trade surplus and raised concentration-related vulnerability metrics. Third, the geographic landscape of trade has been redrawn: Russia has faded as an export destination, the United Kingdom and Serbia have emerged as significant partners on the import side, and the United States has consolidated its position as the EU's primary export market.

Underpinning all of these trends is an extraordinary expansion of EU domestic production, which grew over 2,500% in unit terms. This indicates that the increase in imports is not a sign of deindustrialisation but rather of booming demand that outstrips even the EU's substantially expanded productive capacity. The challenge for EU policymakers lies in managing strategic dependencies — particularly on Chinese supply — while continuing to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the global energy transition.