Market evolution: Hemp fibers (CN 5302) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in True hemp (CN 5302) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers raw or processed hemp fiber (Cannabis sativa L.), including tow and waste, but excludes spun yarn. Over the decade, the EU's position in global hemp trade has undergone a dramatic transformation: the bloc shifted from a modest net exporter to a major global supplier, with exports growing by over 2,200% in value terms. This report identifies the main dynamics driving this evolution, examines the geographic reorientation of trade flows, and assesses market structure and vulnerability.

1. From marginal supplier to dominant exporter: the EU's dramatic trade reorientation

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the extraordinary growth of EU hemp exports, which fundamentally altered the bloc's trade profile. While imports also grew, the scale of the export surge was far larger, converting the EU into a structurally export-oriented actor.

1.1. Export volumes and values grew by orders of magnitude

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of hemp fibers increased from 574 tonnes (€617,513) to 17,258 tonnes (€14.6 million), representing growth of +2,905% in volume and +2,272% in value. The peak was reached in 2024, when exports reached 19,457 tonnes valued at €18.7 million.

Imports grew more modestly in value (+384%, from €310K to €1.5 million) and volume (+198%, from 200 to 596 tonnes), meaning the trade balance swung from a surplus of €308,000 to €13.1 million—a shift of +4,172%.

1.2. Processed hemp drove the export explosion

Breaking down by product segment, the export surge was overwhelmingly concentrated in CN 530290 (processed hemp, tow, and waste). Exports of this sub-category jumped from 156 tonnes to 14,584 tonnes over the period—a 93-fold increase. By contrast, CN 530210 (raw/retted hemp) exports fluctuated without a clear upward trend, ending at 2,674 tonnes in 2025.

On the import side, CN 530290 also dominates, growing from 200 to 576 tonnes, while raw hemp imports (530210) remained irregular and small at 20 tonnes in 2025.

1.3. Falling export prices signal volume-driven growth

Despite the surge in export volumes, export prices declined from €1,075/t to €849/t (−21%). This suggests that the EU's export expansion has been volume-driven rather than value-added-driven, with processed hemp increasingly competing on price. Import prices, by contrast, rose from €1,547/t to €2,504/t (+62%), indicating that the EU sources higher-value or specialty hemp from abroad.

2. A geographic reorientation: new partners, collapsing suppliers

The period witnessed a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's hemp trade geography. Traditional suppliers lost ground while new import partners—particularly the United Kingdom—emerged as dominant. On the export side, China and the UK became the two largest buyers.

2.1. The UK became both the EU's largest import source and export destination

The most remarkable geographic shift involves the United Kingdom. On the import side, UK-origin hemp imports surged from €13,186 to €527,213 (+3,898%), making the UK the EU's largest single import partner by 2025. On the export side, the UK became the largest destination, growing from €40,084 to €4,477,471 (+11,070%). This bilateral intensification likely reflects post-Brexit supply chain reconfiguration, where flows previously internal to the EU became recorded as extra-EU trade.

2.2. Traditional suppliers collapsed as the EU expanded domestic production

Several previously significant import partners experienced near-total declines. Egypt, which supplied €46,011 worth of hemp in 2015, shipped just €49 in 2025 (−99.9%). Canada fell from €41,714 to €1,967 (−95%), and China declined from €144,180 to €54,509 (−62%). This collapse of traditional suppliers correlates with the massive growth in EU domestic production, which rose from 300 million kg to 822 million kg (+174% in quantity, +661% in value to €1.25 billion). As the EU ramped up its own hemp sector, it needed fewer raw fiber imports from distant origins.

2.3. Export destinations diversified toward Asia and the Mediterranean

On the export side, the EU's customer base broadened significantly. China grew from €27K to €5.6 million (+20,563%), becoming the second-largest destination after the UK. Türkiye expanded from €9,328 to €423,386 (+4,439%), and Switzerland grew from €70K to €1.4 million (+1,860%). The United States remained important, growing from €258K to €976K (+278%), but its share eroded as Asian and Mediterranean markets surged.

2.4. France and Belgium emerged as the EU's leading hemp exporters

Within the EU, the member states driving exports shifted considerably. France became the dominant exporter, growing from €126K to €8.8 million (+6,845%), followed by Belgium (€33K to €2.2 million, +6,763%) and the Netherlands (€400K to €1.6 million, +288%). On the import side, Czechia emerged from near-zero to become the largest importer (€460K), followed by the Netherlands (€382K) and France (€197K). Italy, once the largest importer at €107K, saw its imports collapse to €21K (−80%), suggesting a shift toward domestic sourcing.

3. Growing market integration alongside persistent volatility

The EU hemp market became more deeply integrated into global trade while exhibiting significant price volatility and structural concentration. The sector's growing export propensity and intensifying trade flows reflect an industry in rapid expansion.

3.1. The EU is now structurally dependent on exports, not imports

Net import reliance shifted from −92% to −348%, confirming the EU's deepening structural surplus. A negative value means the EU exports far more than it imports; the widening of this ratio signals that the hemp sector is now heavily oriented toward international markets rather than satisfying domestic demand through imports. Export propensity rose from 81% to 108%, indicating that the EU now exports more hemp than its domestic production alone would suggest—implying re-export activity or stock drawdowns.

3.2. Market concentration remains moderate but shifted between partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value remained broadly stable (from 2,716 to 2,639), while export concentration rose from 2,202 to 2,642. Both values indicate moderate concentration (above 1,500 but well below 10,000), meaning trade is not dominated by a single partner but is nonetheless unevenly distributed. The slight rise in export concentration reflects the growing importance of the UK and China as buyers.

3.3. Price volatility was pronounced, with several detected shocks

The hemp market experienced significant price volatility over the period. Several shock events were detected:

The Swiss export price shock in 2017, which involved an abnormality score of 1,130 and an 18.5% value share, likely reflects a shift toward higher-value processed hemp shipments or a one-off supply disruption. The high coefficient of variation (CV) for partners like Serbia (2.69) and the UK (1.71) on the import side, and China (1.57) on the export side, underscores the market's sensitivity to demand and supply fluctuations.

3.4. Production specialisation is concentrated in Western Europe

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that hemp fiber export specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Western European member states:

Portugal shows the highest revealed comparative advantage (RSCA = 0.85), followed by Croatia (0.51). The Netherlands, France, and Italy together account for nearly 70% of EU hemp production by volume, forming the core of the European hemp industry.

Conclusion

The EU hemp fiber market (CN 5302) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc evolved from a modest net exporter with a small trade footprint into a globally significant supplier, with exports growing by over 2,200% in value. This expansion was driven primarily by processed hemp (CN 530290) and was concentrated in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The geographic landscape shifted dramatically: the UK—partly due to Brexit-driven trade reclassification—became the EU's largest trade partner in both directions, while traditional suppliers like Egypt, Canada, and China saw their roles diminish as EU domestic production tripled. Despite the sector's growth, price volatility remained a persistent feature, with several notable shocks detected in 2017–2018. Looking forward, the EU's deepening export orientation creates both opportunity and exposure: while the sector now generates a substantial trade surplus, its growing reliance on international markets means it is increasingly vulnerable to demand shifts in key destinations such as China and the UK.