Market evolution: Heat treatment parts (CN 841990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in Parts of machinery, plant and laboratory equipment for the treatment of materials by a process involving a change of temperature (CN 841990) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers spare and replacement parts for industrial equipment such as heat exchangers, distillation columns, sterilizers, and water heaters, and is bundled into two six-digit subheadings: general industrial parts (84199085) and parts of medical, surgical or laboratory sterilizers (84199015).

Over the decade under review, the EU consolidated its position as a strong net exporter in this segment. Export value rose by 19.8% while import value grew faster at 43.8%, yet the trade surplus remained robust at €937 million in 2025. Beneath these headline figures, however, a set of more nuanced dynamics emerged — involving a structural shift in product mix, a reorientation of trade partners, and episodes of significant volatility — which are explored in the three sections below.

1. A Market Moving Up the Value Chain

1.1 Export volumes fell sharply while export value held up

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 841990 over the decade is the divergence between volume and value on the export side. Total EU exports in quantity terms declined from 92,627 tonnes in 2015 to just 67,636 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 27.0%. Yet over the same period, export value rose from €1.37 billion to €1.64 billion (+19.8%). This divergence is explained entirely by a steep increase in unit values: the average export price climbed from €14,801 per tonne in 2015 to €24,277 per tonne in 2025, a rise of 64.0%.

1.2 The subheading breakdown reveals a compositional shift

A closer look at the two constituent subheadings clarifies the mechanism behind this value-for-volume trade-off. The product segment breakdown shows that the dominant subheading 84199085 (general industrial parts) saw its export volume contract from 91,471 tonnes to 66,573 tonnes (−27.2%), while its unit price rose from €14,489/t to €23,811/t (+64.3%). Meanwhile, subheading 84199015 (parts of sterilizers) remained relatively stable in volume (1,156t → 1,063t) and exhibited far higher — though more volatile — unit prices, reaching €53,499/t in 2025.

This pattern is consistent with EU manufacturers progressively concentrating on higher-value-added, more specialised components — potentially driven by automation, advanced materials, and tighter regulatory requirements — while leaving more commoditised parts to competing suppliers.

1.3 Import dynamics tell a different story

On the import side, the picture differs. Import value grew from €490 million to €705 million (+43.8%) and quantity rose from 31,017 tonnes to 48,153 tonnes (+55.2%). Crucially, however, the average import price declined by 7.4% (from €15,805/t to €14,641/t). This suggests that the EU's growing import bill is driven primarily by greater physical volumes of lower-priced goods, rather than by a shift towards premium imports.

For sterilizer parts (84199015), import value actually collapsed from €57 million in 2015 to €21 million in 2025 (−63.6%), while unit prices fell from €110,371/t to €29,606/t. This likely reflects the post-pandemic normalization of sterilizer demand after the 2020–2021 surge, combined with increased domestic sourcing.

2. Shifting Geographies of Trade

2.1 China became the dominant import supplier

The geographic composition of EU imports shifted markedly over the period. China's share of EU imports of CN 841990 more than doubled in value, rising from €143 million in 2015 to €303 million in 2025 (+111.2%). China is now by far the largest single non-EU supplier. India also saw rapid growth (+162.2%), reaching €31 million, while Türkiye (+77.4%) and South Korea (+89.5%) similarly expanded their EU-bound shipments.

By contrast, Switzerland — historically a major supplier — saw its exports to the EU fall by 25.8% to €101 million. The United Kingdom, a traditional trade partner, was essentially flat (−5.5%). The overall effect is a gradual rebalancing of the EU's supply base towards Asia.

2.2 Export markets: the US strengthened, Russia collapsed

On the export side, the United States became the EU's largest non-EU customer by a wide margin. US-bound exports grew from €219 million to €408 million (+86.0%), accounting for roughly a quarter of all EU exports in 2025. The United Kingdom also expanded (+30.6% to €139 million), while Algeria (+12.6%) and Switzerland (+26.8%) provided incremental growth.

The most dramatic development, however, was the near-total collapse of exports to Russia: from €70 million in 2015 to just €66 thousand in 2025 (−99.9%). This is almost certainly a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In parallel, exports to Türkiye declined by 17.2%, reflecting a degree of trade diversion but also changing demand patterns.

2.3 Trade concentration increased on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 2,011 to 2,296 (+14.2%) by value, moving the import market from a "moderately concentrated" to a "highly concentrated" regime. This reflects the growing dominance of China as a supplier. On the export side, the HHI rose more sharply (from 583 to 908, +55.8%), largely because of the growing weight of the United States and the disappearance of Russia from the export portfolio.

3. Shocks, Vulnerabilities and Intra-EU Dynamics

3.1 Supply-chain volatility is elevated for certain partners

The volatility analysis reveals that several trade flows are subject to high year-to-year instability, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Import flows from Vietnam (CV 1.22), North Macedonia (1.31), Serbia (1.03), and Iran (1.03) exhibit extreme variability, suggesting episodic, order-driven trade rather than stable supply chains. Among major partners, India (CV 0.43) and South Korea (0.43) show notably higher volatility than China (0.22) or Switzerland (0.19), indicating that diversification away from China may not necessarily reduce overall supply risk.

On the export side, flows to Russia (CV 0.69), Brazil (0.56), the UAE (0.53), and Türkiye (0.53) are the most volatile among the top partners. By contrast, Switzerland (CV 0.10) and Saudi Arabia (0.19) stand out as highly stable export markets.

3.2 Isolated price shocks were detected in several markets

The shock detection algorithm flagged three notable export price events:

The Egypt shock in 2019 — with a 115.6% price jump and a very high abnormality score — could reflect a large one-off project delivery (e.g., an industrial plant) rather than a persistent market shift. The Korean shock in 2020 coincides with the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted global logistics and may have inflated unit values through supply shortages. The Canadian shock in 2022 aligns with broader post-pandemic inflationary pressures and supply-chain bottlenecks.

3.3 The EU remains a structurally strong net exporter

Despite rising imports, the EU's trade balance in CN 841990 remained firmly positive throughout the period, growing from €881 million to €937 million (+6.4%). The net import reliance metric remained deeply negative (from −92.5% to −222.3%), confirming that the EU is a substantial net exporter of these parts. Meanwhile, export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — rose from 66.8% to 108.3%, meaning that in 2025 the EU exported more in value terms than it produced domestically, a pattern consistent with significant re-export or intra-firm trade activity.

EU production value in this segment grew from approximately €1.2 billion to €1.7 billion (+41.6%), suggesting that the industry expanded its manufacturing base even as it shifted towards higher-value output. Among EU Member States, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden, and Italy showed the strongest revealed comparative advantage (RSCA > 0.3), while Germany remained the largest single exporter at €409 million and the largest importer at €128 million in 2025.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in heat-treatment parts (CN 841990) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural upgrading and geographic reorientation. EU exporters have successfully moved up the value chain: volumes shipped abroad have declined by over a quarter, yet revenues have grown by nearly 20%, driven by a 64% surge in unit prices. This points to a productive base increasingly focused on specialised, high-specification components.

At the same time, the geographic footprint of trade has shifted substantially. The United States has cemented its position as the EU's top export market, while Russia has essentially vanished. On the import side, China's dominance has deepened, raising the concentration of the EU's supply base — a potential vulnerability should geopolitical or logistical disruptions intensify. The EU's overall trade position remains robust, but the rising import reliance on a single large supplier warrants continued attention in the context of strategic autonomy debates.