Market evolution: Glass working machine parts (CN 847590) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in parts of machines for assembling electric or electronic lamps, tubes, valves, or flashbulbs in glass envelopes, as well as parts of machines for manufacturing or hot working glass or glassware, classified under Combined Nomenclature code 847590. The code encompasses two sub-products: general glass-working and lamp-assembly machine parts (84759090), which dominate trade flows, and parts of machines for making optical fibres and preforms thereof (84759010), a smaller segment. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU maintained a consistent trade surplus in this product category, yet the decade was far from static: quantities contracted sharply, unit values surged, major trading partners were reshuffled, and market concentration patterns shifted in opposite directions for imports and exports. The following sections trace these dynamics and their likely causes.

1. The quantity–value divergence: fewer tonnes, higher prices

1.1 Both exports and imports lost roughly a quarter of their physical volume

The most striking aggregate pattern is a simultaneous contraction in traded quantity paired with robust growth in traded value. EU exports fell from 4,242 tonnes in 2015 to 3,181 tonnes in 2025 (−25.0%), while imports declined from 2,593 tonnes to 1,935 tonnes (−25.4%). Despite these volume losses, the trade overview shows export value rising 19.0% (from €505 million to €601 million) and import value climbing 18.7% (from €360 million to €428 million). The EU's trade surplus widened from €145 million to €173 million (+19.5%), confirming that value growth outpaced the partner-side.

1.2 Unit values surged by nearly 60 percent on both sides of the ledger

The resolution to the quantity–value paradox lies in a dramatic repricing of traded goods. Export unit values rose from €119,013 per tonne to €188,699 per tonne (+58.6%), while import unit values increased from €138,863 per tonne to €221,025 per tonne (+59.2%). Import prices thus consistently exceeded export prices throughout the period—a pattern that is consistent with the EU importing higher-specification, more customised components (possibly from specialised Asian or US suppliers) while exporting a broader basket that includes somewhat lower-value parts. The sub-product segment breakdown shows that the main segment (84759090) exhibited the most extreme swings, with import unit values peaking at €524,480/t in 2021 before moderating, reflecting cyclical project-driven demand.

1.3 Domestic production held broadly steady despite structural shifts

EU production value stood at €640 million in the first available observation and €600 million in the last (−6.2%), with a trough at €400 million. This relative stability, in the face of declining traded volumes, suggests that the European glass machinery parts industry has partially pivoted toward serving domestic or intra-EU demand, or has moved up the value chain into higher-margin product niches. The export propensity falling from 151.0% to 105.2% confirms that exports are no longer growing as fast as production, pointing to an inward reorientation.

2. A reshuffled geography of trade: the US retreat and the Asian advance

2.1 The United States collapsed from dominant partner to secondary supplier

The most dramatic geographic shift occurred in EU–US trade. On the import side, US-origin parts fell from €220 million in 2015 to just €35 million in 2025 (−84.1%), making it the single largest structural change in the dataset. On the export side, EU shipments to the US declined from €215 million to €64 million (−70.4%). The US share of EU imports thus fell from a dominant position to a fraction, likely reflecting a combination of factors: the relocation of glass-working machinery production to Asia, the strengthening of European manufacturing capabilities, and possibly trade-policy effects. The volatility coefficient of US-sourced imports (0.33) and exports (0.11) was relatively low, indicating a gradual rather than abrupt decline.

2.2 Asian suppliers—China, Malaysia, and India—filled the vacuum

As the US retreated, three Asian partners grew significantly:

India's import growth (+271.7%) is the most eye-catching, albeit from a low base. This trend is consistent with the broader globalisation of glass-working machinery production in South and Southeast Asia, where new manufacturing capacity for components has been established to serve both local and export markets. China's growth, though slower in percentage terms, is larger in absolute terms and suggests that EU firms are increasingly sourcing from Chinese component makers.

2.3 EU exports diversified toward Mexico, Türkiye, and the United Kingdom

The export partner landscape shifted away from the US and Russia and toward a set of growing or stable markets:

Mexico's rise is particularly notable: it overtook the US as the EU's top single-country export destination in value terms by 2025, reflecting Mexico's growing role as a manufacturing hub for glass products destined for the North American market. The Russian decline (−46.4%) is consistent with the post-2022 sanctions environment, though the decline began before that date. Türkiye and the UK absorbed much of the redirected export capacity.

2.4 Import concentration increased while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) tells a revealing story of opposite trends on the two sides of the trade balance:

Import concentration rose as the share formerly held by the highly diversified US origin was partly redistributed among a smaller number of Asian suppliers, increasing the weight of the top partners. Meanwhile, the export market became substantially more diversified: the HHI fell from 2,298 to 879, meaning the EU now sells to a much broader range of partners. This export diversification is a positive sign for resilience, even as import concentration has ticked up.

3. Specialisation, vulnerability, and structural positioning of the EU

3.1 The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter with deepening self-sufficiency

The net import reliance metric, which is negative when the EU exports more than it imports, moved from −40.6% to −65.9% over the decade. This deepening negativity indicates that the EU's trade surplus relative to production grew substantially—the EU became an even more significant net exporter of glass-working machine parts. The trade intensity ratio (exports plus imports as a share of production) declined from 123.0% to 103.1%, suggesting that the industry has become somewhat more self-contained, with less reliance on cross-border flows relative to total output.

3.2 A handful of EU Member States dominate production and trade

The specialisation analysis reveals a highly concentrated intra-EU production structure:

Germany alone accounts for nearly half of EU exports in this product (46.6% of the EU export basket), and with Belgium (22.7%) the two countries represent almost 70% of EU outbound trade. Germany, France, and Belgium were the top three EU exporting countries by value in 2025. Luxembourg's high RCA likely reflects re-export activity by trading companies rather than large-scale domestic production, given the country's small manufacturing base.

3.3 The US remained the most volatile import source, while export shocks were scattered

The volatility analysis identifies the UK (coefficient of variation 2.01), Serbia (2.93), and Russia (1.06) as the most volatile import partners, likely reflecting small-volume, lumpy trade flows rather than systemic instability. On the export side, the US (0.11) and Mexico (0.19) showed the lowest volatility—consistent with established, steady commercial relationships—while Indonesia (1.62) and Egypt (1.05) were the most erratic.

The detected shock events were all price-based export shocks:

The 2021 Japan shock (+226.6% in unit value) likely reflects a small number of high-value, specialised shipments—possibly a major glass-manufacturing project or a one-off equipment modernisation order. These events, while dramatic in percentage terms, had limited aggregate impact (Japan accounted for 5.4% of export value).

3.4 Optical fibre parts emerged as a small but high-growth niche

The sub-product breakdown shows that optical fibre machine parts (84759010) represent a small fraction of total trade—typically 1–2% by value on both import and export sides. However, this sub-product exhibited striking volatility: its export unit value surged from €53,066/t in 2017 to €208,386/t in 2025, a nearly four-fold increase. While the absolute volumes are modest (40 tonnes of exports in 2025), the growth trajectory suggests that optical fibre manufacturing equipment is an expanding niche, potentially linked to the global rollout of fibre-optic broadband networks.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU market for glass-working machine parts (CN 847590) underwent a quiet structural transformation. The headline numbers—moderate value growth, a widening trade surplus, and continued net exporter status—mask three deeper shifts: (1) a dramatic rise in unit values that compensated for a 25% decline in traded physical volumes, implying a move toward higher-specification products; (2) a fundamental reshuffling of trade geography, with the United States losing its dominant role as both supplier and customer, and Asian producers (China, Malaysia, India) filling the import gap while Mexico, Türkiye, and the UK absorbed redirected EU exports; and (3) a consolidation of EU self-sufficiency, as trade intensity and export propensity both declined, suggesting the European industry has become somewhat less outward-oriented relative to its production base.

The EU remains well-positioned in this market, with Germany, Belgium, and France anchoring a specialised manufacturing cluster. However, the rising import concentration (HHI up 39%) and the growing reliance on Asian suppliers bear monitoring, particularly if geopolitical tensions or supply-chain disruptions were to disrupt those flows. Conversely, the sharp diversification of export destinations (HHI down 62%) provides a meaningful buffer against single-market shocks. Looking ahead, the optical fibre sub-segment may offer growth potential, while the broader market's trajectory will depend on whether the value-upgrading trend continues and whether new markets in the Global South can compensate for the structural decline in US demand.