Market evolution: Glands and organs (CN 300190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU trade in CN 300190 products—encompassing dried glands, heparin, and other therapeutic substances of human or animal origin—has undergone a significant contraction and structural shift between 2015 and 2025. While the EU remains a major player, both its import and export volumes and values have declined substantially. This report examines the primary dynamics behind this contraction, explores the changing geography of trade, and analyses the concurrent rise in unit values and market volatility. The overarching narrative is one of reduced trade volume but increased strategic complexity and price, set against a backdrop of expanding domestic production.

I. A Decade of Contraction: Falling Volumes and Evolving Deficits

The period 2015–2025 is characterized by a pronounced reduction in the physical quantity of CN 300190 products traded by the EU, though the financial picture is more nuanced due to rising prices.

Sharp Decline in Trade Volumes

The most dramatic feature is the collapse in import volumes. EU imports fell from a peak of 3,748 tonnes (in 2016) to just 695 tonnes in 2025, a drop of over 80%. Export volumes followed a similar, though less steep, trajectory, declining from 361 tonnes to 227 tonnes (a -37.1% change).

This volumetric collapse is almost entirely driven by one product segment: 30019098 (dried glands and other animal-origin substances, excl. heparin). Its import quantity plummeted from 2,856 tonnes in 2015 to 240 tonnes in 2025.

Table 1: EU Trade Volume Evolution for CN 300190 (Tonnes)

Rising Values Mask the Volumetric Slide

Despite the fall in quantity, import values did not decline as sharply, falling by only -40.3% (from €1.00 billion to €0.60 billion) because unit prices surged. This indicates a market where the remaining trade is for higher-value or more processed goods. The EU's trade deficit consequently improved, shrinking from -€467 million in 2015 to -€258 million in 2025.

The Domestic Production Boom

A key factor underpinning this trend is the explosive growth of EU production. The value of EU production for this product category grew from €674 million in 2015 to an estimated €2.8 billion in 2025—an increase of 315.6%. This suggests a major strategic shift towards self-sufficiency, likely reducing the need for imports of certain raw or semi-processed substances.

II. Reshuffling the Deck: The Changing Geography of EU Trade

The decline in aggregate trade volume coincided with a significant reconfiguration of the EU's key trading partners, characterized by reduced dependency on some traditional suppliers and the growing importance of others.

Import Partners: Concentration Remains, but Faces Shift

The EU's import market remains concentrated on a few key players, though their relative weight has shifted. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 3,569 to 3,193, indicating slight diversification.

Table 2: Evolution of Key EU Import Partners (Value in € millions)

Source: Top Partners and Top Reporters

A notable intra-EU shift is observed: France, once the dominant importing Member State, saw its share collapse, while Hungary's grew significantly. Among external partners, Singapore, the US, and China all experienced major value declines, though they remain the top three suppliers. The volatility of these relationships is high; for example, imports from Brazil showed extreme price shocks in 2019.

Export Partners: A More Diversified but Smaller Market

EU export values also fell, from €536 million to €341 million. The export concentration HHI decreased more sharply (from 4,977 to 3,571), pointing to a diversification away from a single dominant destination.

Singapore, historically the largest export market, saw a value drop of -46.5%. Conversely, exports to China grew by 285.1% (from €2.4 million to €9.1 million), and to Türkiye by 83.6%. This suggests EU exporters are pivoting towards these high-growth markets, even as the overall pie shrinks.

III. Price Surges, Volatility, and Strategic Vulnerabilities

The period was marked by significant price increases and heightened volatility, reflecting supply chain pressures and shifting product mixes within the CN 300190 category.

Divergent Price Trends Across Product Segments

The aggregate import price surged by 206.9% (from €280,470/t to €860,884/t), but this masks stark differences between sub-products.

• Heparin (30019091): Import prices remained very high (over €1.6 million/t in 2025) but actually fell from their 2019–2021 peaks. This product, critical for blood anticoagulants, saw a massive price spike during the COVID-19 pandemic period.
• Animal-origin substances (30019098): Import prices exploded from ~€12,600/t in 2015 to €194,113/t in 2025. This aligns with the collapse in import volume, suggesting a shift from low-cost raw materials to higher-value, specialized extracts.
• Human-origin substances (30019020): Import prices were volatile but ended the period lower than they started.

On the export side, prices for Heparin and animal-origin substances were highly volatile, peaking sharply in certain years (e.g., 2019–2021) before correcting.

Heightened Volatility and Notable Supply Shocks

The coefficient of variation (CV) for trade with key partners often exceeded 1.0, indicating very high year-to-year volatility. The system detected several extreme shock events:

1. Brazil (Import Price Shock, 2019): An abnormality score of 428.3, with prices shifting by +1,015%.
2. Egypt (Export Price Shock, 2023): An abnormality score of 157.6.
3. Belarus (Export Price Shock, 2022): An abnormality score of 79.9.

These shocks underscore the supply chain's susceptibility to disruptions in key sourcing or transit countries.

Improved Strategic Autonomy, Yet Persistent Dependencies

Despite the trade contraction, the EU's net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption fell from 16.2% to 13.9%. This is a direct result of the booming domestic production. However, the high specialization of certain Member States like Sweden and the Netherlands (via revealed comparative advantage) and the continued high concentration of imports from Singapore and China mean vulnerabilities remain. The market is characterized by lower volume dependency but heightened sensitivity to price shocks and supply disruptions in a more complex, high-value trade landscape.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 300190 products between 2015 and 2025 has transformed from one of high-volume trade to a lower-volume, higher-value, and more volatile system. The primary narrative is a threefold shift: from external sourcing to domestic production, from bulk raw materials to processed substances, and from stable, concentrated trade flows to diversified but volatile ones.

The spectacular growth in EU production value is the single most important factor, explaining the collapse in import volumes. This has improved the bloc's strategic autonomy. However, the trade that remains is characterized by extreme price increases, particularly for heparin and specialized animal-derived products, and is subject to recurrent supply shocks. The geography of trade has also been redrawn, with traditional partners seeing reduced shares and new hubs like Hungary emerging within the EU. For policymakers and businesses, the key challenge is no longer securing volume, but managing price volatility and securing resilient supply chains for a range of high-value, therapeutically critical substances.