Market evolution: Fresh potatoes (CN 070190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union trade in fresh or chilled potatoes (excluding seed) under customs code 070190 over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers three subcategories: new potatoes harvested between January and June (07019050), other fresh potatoes (07019090), and potatoes destined for starch manufacture (07019010).

Over this decade, the EU's trade in fresh potatoes underwent a profound structural transformation. The Union shifted from a net exporter position of €35 million in 2015 to a persistent net importer, ending 2025 with a trade deficit of €54 million. Import values more than doubled (+102%) while export values grew by only 37%, driven by a combination of rising import volumes and surging unit prices. Three main dynamics define this period: the erosion of the EU's trade surplus, a dramatic reconfiguration of trade partners, and sustained price escalation accompanied by shifts in product composition.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus

A decade-long shift from net exporter to net importer

The EU entered 2015 as a net exporter of fresh potatoes, with exports worth €191 million against imports of €156 million, yielding a surplus of approximately €35 million. By 2025, the situation had reversed entirely: imports reached €315 million while exports stood at €262 million, producing a deficit of €54 million. Import values grew by 102.4% over the period, compared to a 37.1% increase in export values.

The year-by-year trajectory reveals that this was not a linear decline but rather a volatile path shaped by weather shocks and market cycles:

Source: Calculated from Product Segment Breakdown data.

The 2019 drought: a defining shock

The year 2019 stands out as the most dramatic inflection point. A severe European drought in 2018 decimated potato harvests, pushing import volumes to a then-record 795,000 tonnes—nearly double the 2015 level—while exports fell to their lowest point of the decade at 526,000 tonnes. The resulting trade deficit of €152 million remains the worst in the entire period. Importantly, the shock was temporary: by 2021–2022, the EU briefly returned to a surplus position, suggesting that domestic production capacity had not been permanently impaired but was highly weather-sensitive.

A new structural deficit from 2023 onward

While 2019 was an acute shock, the deficits that emerged from 2023 appear more structural in nature. Import volumes surged to 721,000 tonnes in 2023 and a peak of 811,000 tonnes in 2024, while export volumes contracted to 584,000 tonnes in 2023 before partially recovering. Unlike 2019, when a single weather event drove the imbalance, the 2023–2025 period reflects a combination of factors: successive climate-related production shortfalls across European growing regions, sustained demand growth especially in southern member states, and the increasing competitiveness of non-EU suppliers. The 2025 data shows a slight easing (imports down to 708,000 tonnes), but the deficit persists at €54 million.

2. A Reconfigured Geographic Landscape

Egypt's emergence as the EU's dominant potato supplier

The most striking geographic shift in EU imports has been the meteoric rise of Egypt. In 2015, Egyptian potato exports to the EU were valued at €46 million, already the largest single-country source. By 2025, this figure had surged to €151 million—a 225% increase—cementing Egypt's position as by far the EU's top import partner. Egypt's competitive advantage lies in its ability to supply the EU during the winter and early spring months when European domestic stocks are low, leveraging favourable climatic conditions and proximity to Mediterranean markets. Israel also grew significantly (+90%, from €40 million to €77 million), operating in a similar seasonal window.

Other notable import growth came from Türkiye (+1,570%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (+1,887%), and Switzerland (+363%), though these remain smaller in absolute terms. The United Kingdom, the second-largest import source at €71 million in 2025, saw more modest growth (+10%).

Source: Top partners by value.

Export markets: diversification away from West Africa

On the export side, the geographic landscape shifted significantly. The United Kingdom remained the largest single destination throughout the period, though its share declined from €42 million in 2015 to €32 million in 2025 (−24%). West African markets, once prominent, contracted sharply: Senegal fell from €18 million to €5 million (−73%), and Norway dropped from €19 million to €9 million (−53%).

Countering these declines, two new or expanded markets emerged. Ukraine became a major destination, surging from virtually zero (€45,000) in 2015 to €30 million in 2025—a dramatic increase likely driven by post-2022 reconstruction-related demand and EU solidarity trade flows. Switzerland also grew substantially as an export market (+262%, from €7 million to €27 million). These shifts suggest that EU exporters have diversified their destination portfolio, reducing reliance on any single region. This is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which fell from 819 to 557 (−32%), indicating significantly lower concentration.

Source: Top partners by value.

Southern EU members fuel the import surge

Behind the aggregate EU figures lies significant variation across member states. The largest increases in imports came from southern and southeastern EU members. Spain, already a significant importer in 2015 (€26 million), saw its imports grow to €70 million (+166%), becoming the largest importing member state. Greece experienced even faster growth, rising from €17 million to €53 million (+206%). Slovenia recorded the most dramatic relative increase (+563%, from €3 million to €23 million).

These countries share warm-climate growing conditions that make them natural customers for off-season imports from North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, traditional importers such as the Netherlands and Ireland saw more moderate growth (+17% and +26% respectively).

On the export side, the Netherlands maintained its dominance as the EU's largest exporter at €79 million (essentially flat from 2015), while Germany emerged as a strong second (+153%, reaching €57 million). France and Spain, by contrast, saw their export positions decline (−29% and −41% respectively), consistent with their own growing import needs.

3. Rising Prices, Shifting Composition, and Supply Volatility

Sustained price escalation across all trade flows

Unit values rose substantially across the period. The average EU export price increased from €253/tonne in 2015 to €359/tonne in 2025 (+42%), while the average import price rose from €363/tonne to €446/tonne (+23%). Both flows experienced notable price spikes, particularly in 2022–2024, driven by the same climate pressures affecting European agriculture broadly.

The export price trajectory is especially volatile: it dipped to a low of €247/tonne in 2020 (a year of bumper European harvests and high export volumes of 799,000 tonnes), then surged to a peak of €472/tonne in 2024 before falling back to €359/tonne in 2025. The import price peaked at €488/tonne in 2023. This price volatility reflects the perishable and weather-dependent nature of fresh potato production, amplified by the high sensitivity of the product to growing conditions.

A changing product mix in EU potato trade

The three subcategories that compose CN 070190 have evolved along very different trajectories. On the import side, new potatoes (07019050) remain the dominant segment, growing from 271,000 tonnes (€94 million) in 2015 to 438,000 tonnes (€187 million) in 2025. Other table potatoes (07019090) also grew strongly, from 158,000 tonnes (€62 million) to 269,000 tonnes (€127 million). The starch potato segment (07019010) remains marginal at around 1,000 tonnes.

On the export side, the picture is more complex. The main category of other table potatoes (07019090) remained the largest export segment but declined in volume from 706,000 tonnes to 645,000 tonnes. New potato exports (07019050) were essentially flat at around 39,000 tonnes. The most dynamic shift occurred in starch potato exports, which surged from 9,600 tonnes (€2 million) in 2015 to 43,600 tonnes (€16 million) in 2025—a more than fourfold increase in volume. This suggests growing demand from non-EU starch processors for EU-origin potatoes.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown.

Supply shocks and volatility patterns

The data reveals significant volatility in EU potato trade, with several notable shock events detected. In 2022, EU exports to Ukraine experienced a price shock of extraordinary magnitude: unit values surged by 277%, coinciding with the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resulting disruption of Ukraine's own agricultural production. Two other notable export price shocks occurred in 2019, affecting trade with Suriname (+102%) and Moldova (+117%), likely connected to the broader European supply crisis of that year.

Among import partners, the coefficient of variation (a measure of trade flow volatility) is highest for smaller and more irregular suppliers such as Madagascar (2.71), Serbia (1.42), and Türkiye (1.18). For the major partners, Egypt's coefficient of variation stands at 0.45, reflecting its more consistent but still fluctuating supply pattern. On the export side, Ukraine shows the highest volatility (1.49), consistent with the sharp disruption observed in 2022.

Import concentration has increased modestly over the period, with the HHI rising from 3,281 to 3,405 (+3.8%), reflecting Egypt's growing share. At the member-state level, France and Cyprus show the strongest export specialisation in this product (RSCA of 0.65 and 0.96 respectively in 2025), while the Netherlands, though the largest exporter in absolute terms, has a more balanced overall trade profile.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in fresh potatoes underwent a fundamental transformation. The Union moved from a modest net exporter to a structural net importer, with import values more than doubling while export values grew at half that pace. This shift was punctuated by the dramatic 2019 drought shock—which produced the decade's largest deficit of €152 million—but the more recent deficits from 2023 onward appear driven by deeper structural factors including climate-related production challenges and growing seasonal demand from southern Europe.

Geographically, Egypt consolidated its position as the EU's indispensable winter supplier (€151 million in 2025), while export markets diversified away from West Africa toward Switzerland and Ukraine. The product mix also evolved, with starch potato exports quadrupling in volume even as table potato exports declined.

Rising prices have been a persistent feature of the decade, with export unit values increasing by 42% and import prices by 23%. Combined with increasing import concentration around Egyptian supply, these trends suggest the EU's fresh potato market is becoming more exposed to external supply conditions—a vulnerability that climate change and geopolitical instability may amplify in the years ahead.