Market evolution: Foundry machine parts (CN 845490) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of European Union imports and exports for product CN 845490 – parts of converters, ladles, ingot moulds and casting machines used in metallurgy or metal foundries – between 2015 and 2025. The period reveals a significant transformation in the EU's trading position, characterised by a strategic pivot towards higher-value exports, a diversification of import sources, and growing market concentration. Despite maintaining a consistent trade surplus, the dynamics underlying the flows point to structural shifts in global supply chains and competitive positioning.

1. A Strategic Shift in Export Composition: Value Over Volume

The EU's export performance for foundry machine parts underwent a fundamental change over the decade. While the total value of exports grew moderately, the underlying volume trends tell a story of a strategic move up the value chain.

1.1 The Price-Volume Divergence

A clear divergence emerges between the value and quantity of EU exports. The total value of exports increased by 4.6% from the first to the last period, reaching €323.6 million in 2025. However, the physical volume shipped fell by a dramatic 52.0%, from 22,220 tonnes in 2015 to just 10,659 tonnes in 2025. This trend is starkly reflected in the unit export price, which more than doubled (a 118.2% increase) from €13,915 per tonne to €30,357 per tonne. This indicates that EU exporters increasingly specialised in and shipped higher-specification, more valuable parts rather than competing on bulk commodity goods. View the general trade overview.

1.2 Changing Geographical Focus of Exports

The destination of EU exports also shifted significantly. While mature markets remained important, growth was driven by specific economies. The United States and Türkiye emerged as the two fastest-growing major markets for EU exporters.

This reorientation suggests that EU exporters successfully targeted industrialising markets with growing metallurgical sectors (e.g., Türkiye, India) and capitalised on strong demand in technologically advanced economies (e.g., the USA), while losing ground in traditional markets like China and Mexico.

1.3 The Role of Core EU Producers

Italy and Germany remained the undisputed export powerhouses for this product within the EU. Together, they accounted for a dominant share of total EU exports, with their combined value growing from €206.8 million in 2015 to €239.0 million in 2025. Italy, in particular, showed robust growth (+13.4%), reinforcing its position as a leader in high-end machinery parts. Austria and Spain, while still significant, saw notable declines in their export values. Finland, however, stood out with a strong 70.7% increase, indicating growing specialisation. View the top EU exporting member states.

2. Rising Import Demand and Evolving Supply Sources

In contrast to the volume-in-value export strategy, EU imports of foundry parts grew substantially in both value and volume, indicating strong domestic demand that was increasingly met by foreign suppliers.

2.1 Growth Driven by Volume

EU import value increased by 44.8% from €87.9 million in 2015 to €127.2 million in 2025. This growth was primarily volume-driven, as import quantity rose by 64.2% to 12,836 tonnes. Consequently, the average import price fell by 11.9%, suggesting that the EU sourced more competitively priced parts or that the composition of imports shifted towards less expensive components. View the general trade overview.

2.2 The Ascent of China and Türkiye as Import Sources

The most dramatic change in the import landscape was the rise of China and Türkiye as suppliers. China's market share in EU imports exploded, with its export value to the EU growing by 341.5% to become the single largest source in 2025 at €59.2 million. Türkiye also saw its exports to the EU surge by 313.1%. Conversely, imports from traditional partners like Switzerland and the United Kingdom declined significantly. This shift highlights a restructuring of supply chains, with the EU increasingly reliant on parts from Asia and the Black Sea region.

2.3 Internal Consumption Trends Within the EU

Among EU member states, Italy, Germany, and France remained the largest importers, reflecting their large industrial bases. However, the data reveals shifting internal demand. While Germany's imports slightly decreased, Italy (+56.6%), Belgium (+152.7%), and particularly Poland (+379.4%) showed massive increases in import values, indicating growing or relocating production capacities for foundry goods within these countries. View the top EU importing member states.

3. Market Concentration and Structural Vulnerabilities

Beneath the top-line figures, the data reveals important changes in market structure and vulnerability, suggesting a market becoming more specialised and concentrated.

3.1 Increased Specialisation and Export Concentration

The EU's export market became significantly more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value more than doubled from 655 to 1,328 between 2015 and 2025. This indicates that EU exports became more focused on a smaller number of destination countries (like the USA and Türkiye). Internally, specialisation data for 2025 shows that Austria, Italy, and Slovenia have the strongest revealed comparative advantage in producing these parts, meaning the EU's export capacity is anchored in a few highly specialised member states. View concentration and specialisation data.

3.2 Import Dependency and Volatility

Despite running a consistent trade surplus (€196.4 million in 2025), the EU's net import reliance metric became more negative, moving from -17.3% to -32.1%. This indicates that while the EU is a net exporter, the growth in its export capacity has not kept pace with the growth in its import needs, suggesting a gradual increase in external dependency for supplying its own industries. This dependency is coupled with significant trade volatility, particularly in import channels. For example, imports from Thailand and Ukraine show very high coefficients of variation (CV > 0.97), indicating unstable supply flows. View net import reliance and volatility metrics.

3.3 Production Trends Support a Specialised Industry

EU production of these parts (under Prodcom code 28.91.12.30) grew in value by 7.6% from €856 million to €921 million between the first and last available years. Notably, the production value peaked at €1.27 billion around 2021, suggesting a period of strong post-pandemic demand before a correction. This production growth, occurring alongside falling export volumes but rising export values, further supports the conclusion that the EU industry is focusing on higher-value-added products for both domestic and international markets. View production volumes.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU trade in foundry machine parts (CN 845490) has evolved from a volume-driven export model to a value-focused one. The EU solidified its position as a supplier of high-specification components to advanced and emerging industrial economies, even as it reduced its physical export footprint. Simultaneously, its import needs grew substantially, with supply chains becoming more reliant on competitive suppliers in China and Türkiye. This has resulted in a market structure where the EU maintains a strong trade surplus but exhibits increasing export concentration and import dependency. The industry appears to be leveraging its core specialisations in key member states, but the rising volatility in certain import channels points to potential vulnerabilities in the supply chain that would merit monitoring.