Market evolution: Flat knitting machines (CN 844720) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in flat knitting machines and stitch-bonding machines (Customs code 844720) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses two subcategories: warp knitting machines and Raschel type stitch-bonding machines (84472020), and flat knitting machines excluding warp knitting machines (84472080). The EU's position in this market underwent a dramatic transformation over the decade, shifting from a significant net importer it was in 2015, with a trade deficit of €30.3 million, to a net exporter by 2025, achieving a trade surplus of €18.5 million. This structural shift — driven by a near-tripling of export values and a simultaneous contraction of imports — raises important questions about the sustainability of the EU's competitive position and the underlying dynamics reshaping this specialized niche of the global textile machinery market.

1. From Import Dependency to Export Competitiveness: The EU's Dramatic Trade Reversal

1.1 Export values nearly tripled while import values declined

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between EU export and import trajectories. EU exports of flat knitting machines grew from €14.4 million in 2015 to €56.5 million in 2025, an increase of 293.3%. During the same period, import values fell from €44.7 million to €38.0 million, a decline of 14.9%. This convergence fundamentally altered the EU's trade balance:

*A negative value indicates the EU was a net exporter in that year; the 2015 figure reflects an unusually strong export performance relative to domestic production.

1.2 The export boom was primarily a price story, not a volume story

While export values multiplied nearly four-fold, the quantity exported grew far more modestly — from 2,210 tonnes to 3,536 tonnes, an increase of 60.0%. The dominant driver of export growth was therefore a sharp increase in unit prices, which rose from €6,503 per tonne to €15,987 per tonne, an increase of 145.9%. This points to a shift in the EU's export basket towards higher-value machines — a consistent theme also observed in the supplementary unit data, where prices per piece for the 84472020 (warp knitting) category reached €10,605 per unit in 2025 on exports.

1.3 Import declines were concentrated in volume, while import prices rose

On the import side, the contraction of 14.9% in value was driven primarily by a 39.3% decline in imported quantity (from 3,020 tonnes to 1,832 tonnes). Import prices actually increased by 40.2%, from €14,795 to €20,748 per tonne. This indicates that while the EU was importing fewer machines, the machines it did import were higher-value — suggesting a concentration on premium Japanese equipment while the volume of lower-priced imports (e.g., from Turkey, Taiwan) declined substantially.

2. A Shifting Geographic Landscape: Emerging Markets Drive Export Growth, Traditional Partners Reorient

2.1 EU exports pivoted decisively toward emerging textile-manufacturing economies

The geographic composition of EU exports underwent a fundamental restructuring. The seven largest export destinations in 2025, as tracked in the partner breakdown, were dominated by emerging economies:

China, Viet Nam, India, and Mexico stand out with explosive growth. China's rise — from €0.2 million to €9.1 million — makes it the EU's single largest export destination by 2025. This is remarkable given that China is simultaneously a major supplier of knitting machines to the EU. The likely explanation is a dual dynamic: EU manufacturers export high-end, specialised machines to Chinese textile producers, while China supplies lower-cost equipment. Viet Nam and India, whose textile industries have expanded rapidly as supply chains seek to diversify beyond China, together purchased over €11 million from the EU in 2025. The United States' growth (+1,611%) to €6.7 million may reflect nearshoring trends and reshoring of textile production closer to North American consumer markets.

2.2 European import origins remained concentrated, but turbulence reshuffled lower-ranked suppliers

Import sources remained dominated by Japan, which was the EU's largest supplier throughout the period with €25.6 million in 2025 (slightly down from €26.5 million in 2015). Japan's stable position reflects its established reputation for high-end flat knitting technology (Stoll, Shima Seiki competitors such as Toyota Industries and others). China held its position as second-largest supplier at €7.6 million.

Below these two, significant declines occurred:

The collapse of Turkish imports (−83.8%) is particularly notable, potentially linked to macroeconomic instability and currency depreciation in Türkiye over the 2020s. The decline in UK and US imports likely reflects both post-Brexit friction and the diminishing role of these countries as re-export or production hubs for textile machinery.

2.3 Trade volatility was highest for China and Mexico, with occasional price shocks

The coefficient of variation (CV) for imports from China was 2.43 — the highest among all partners — indicating extreme year-to-year variability in import values, likely driven by batch imports of specific machine types in certain years rather than steady flows. For exports, the highest CVs were observed for Mexico (2.00), Bangladesh (1.50), and China (1.32), reflecting the contract-driven, episodic nature of textile machinery sales to developing economies.

Two notable price shock events stand out:

• Export to Türkiye, 2022: A price shock with an abnormality score of 50.1 and a value shift of +232.1%, coinciding with the EU's peak export year to Türkiye (€32.8 million). This was the single largest export shock event and likely reflects a large-scale procurement of EU machines by Turkish textile firms, possibly driven by lira depreciation making imported capital goods more expensive per unit but strategically necessary.
• Export to Pakistan, 2023: An extreme price shock (abnormality 72.8, shift +6,522%), though on a very small value base (0.5% share), suggesting this was likely a single high-value, niche transaction rather than a structural trend.

3. Structural Fragility Beneath the Surface: Production Collapse and Rising Concentration

3.1 EU domestic production fell by over 80%

The most concerning signal in the data is the collapse of EU domestic production. Production quantity declined from 6,750 units in 2015 to 1,200 units in 2025, a decline of 82.2%. Production value declined from €549 million to €100 million, a decline of 81.8%. This implies a reduction of approximately 85% in the number of machines being manufactured within the EU over the course of a decade — a substantial deindustrialisation of this niche sector. The fact that export values grew 293% while production volume collapsed by 82% indicates that the EU's remaining producers have successfully moved upmarket, concentrating on fewer but much more expensive machines. However, the sharp decline in export propensity — from 92.4% in 2015 to just 5.6% in 2025 — suggests that the remaining production is increasingly serving the domestic EU market rather than global customers. This may reflect either export registration anomalies or a genuine pivot inward.

3.2 Import source concentration increased, raising vulnerability concerns

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration (by value) rose from 3,880 to 5,008, an increase of 29.1%. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market, and a value of 5,008 represents extreme concentration. This means the EU's import base has become significantly more dependent on fewer suppliers — principally Japan and China, which together account for the vast majority of import value. In contrast, the export HHI remained modest (from 842 to 900), indicating that EU exports are relatively diversified across partners.

The rising import concentration is partly a consequence of the decline of secondary suppliers such as Türkiye, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. As these partners exited or shrank, their market share was absorbed by the two dominant suppliers, further concentrating the EU's supply base.

3.3 Italy and Germany dominate EU production; several EU members show no specialisation

Italy and Germany together account for over two-thirds of EU production value. Italy holds a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.61, and Germany an RSCA of 0.26, with both countries having production shares of 32.7% and 35.7%, respectively. Finland shows the highest specialisation (RSCA of 0.78) but on a very small base (0.08% of EU production). At the other end of the spectrum, countries such as Sweden, Poland, Slovenia, and Denmark show no meaningful specialisation (RSCA < −0.98).

On the import side, Italy remained the EU's largest importer throughout the period at €21.2 million in 2025, followed by Germany (€5.3 million) and Spain (€4.9 million). Notably, Spain and France both grew their imports (+30.0% and +76.5% respectively), while smaller EU members such as Hungary (−91.2%) and Czechia (−15.9%) reduced theirs. Germany's exports, which stood at €115.5 million in 2015, fell to €50.4 million in 2025 (−56.4%), suggesting a possible structural shift in production patterns and possibly the offshoring of some manufacturing capacity.

Conclusion

The EU trade in flat knitting machines (CN 844720) over 2015–2025 presents a paradox. On the surface, the trade balance has improved dramatically, swinging from a significant deficit to a surplus, and export values have nearly quadrupled. This apparent success, however, masks deep structural changes that warrant caution. EU domestic production has collapsed by over 80%, meaning fewer machines are being made in Europe even as the remaining output is higher-value. The export boom has been concentrated among a handful of emerging-economy buyers — China, Viet Nam, India, and Mexico — whose demand is likely tied to the expansion of their own textile industries, making future sales vulnerable to shifts in global supply chain geography. Meanwhile, import concentration has risen to dangerously high levels, with Japan and China increasingly dominating supply. The sector's long-term health will likely depend on whether EU manufacturers — principally in Italy and Germany — can maintain their technological edge and high-value positioning in a market where global competition is intensifying and domestic production capacity continues to erode.