Market evolution: Electronic assemblies (CN 85389091) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in electronic assemblies for electrical switching, protection, and control equipment (Customs Code 85389091) between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterised by significant shifts in trade volumes, values, and geographical patterns, underpinned by rising unit values, evolving global supply chains, and changing competitive dynamics within the EU. Despite a persistent trade surplus, the EU's import reliance has decreased, indicating a strengthening of its domestic production and export capacity in this segment.

1. Rising Values Amidst Stable Volumes: A Decade of Price-Driven Growth

The decade saw a clear divergence between the value and volume of EU trade in this product category, pointing to substantial increases in unit prices. While the physical quantities traded remained relatively stable or even declined, the total value of trade grew significantly, reflecting higher-value products and inflationary pressures within global electronics supply chains.

Exports expanded in value but contracted in quantity, highlighting price inflation

EU exports to the rest of the world grew by 17.2% in value, rising from €1.285 billion in 2015 to €1.506 billion in the latest period. Conversely, the exported quantity decreased by 7.3% over the same span, from 6,922 tonnes to 6,418 tonnes. This divergence resulted in a 26.4% increase in the average export price per tonne, climbing from €185,622 to €234,554. The peak export value of €1.834 billion was reached in 2022, suggesting a strong post-pandemic demand cycle.

Import growth was even more pronounced, driven by higher unit values

Imports surged by 39.2% in value, increasing from €357 million to €497 million. Similar to exports, the imported volume saw a slight decline of 4.0%. Consequently, the average import price per tonne jumped by 45.0%, from €89,871 to €130,324. This faster price growth on the import side compared to exports is noteworthy and contributed to changes in trade concentration and partner dynamics.

The EU maintained a robust and growing trade surplus throughout the period

The EU consistently recorded a large trade surplus in this product category. The surplus started at €928 million in 2015 and, despite fluctuations, ended the period at €1.009 billion, an increase of 8.7%. The highest surplus, at €1.335 billion, was recorded in 2019. This sustained positive balance confirms the EU's role as a strong net exporter of these higher-value electronic assemblies.

2. Geographical Rebalancing: Diversifying Exports and Concentrating Imports

The map of EU trade partners underwent significant restructuring. While the EU diversified its export destinations, its import sources became more concentrated, with China asserting a dominant position. Internal EU trade flows also shifted, with production and exports increasingly concentrated in Central and Eastern European member states.

Export markets diversified, with the United Kingdom and India becoming key growth drivers

The EU's top export partner, China, saw its share decline by 25.7% in value, falling from €364 million to €270 million. In contrast, exports to the United Kingdom and India grew exceptionally, by 67.4% and 114.5% respectively. The UK is now the fourth-largest export market, and India has risen to sixth. The United States remained a major and growing market (+35.0%). This shift suggests a reorientation of trade flows post-Brexit and towards high-growth Asian economies.

Import sourcing became highly concentrated on China

China solidified its position as the preeminent source of EU imports, with its share growing by 90.4% to €165 million, making it the largest import partner by a significant margin. Most other traditional partners, including Switzerland (-13.5%), the United States (-17.5%), and the United Kingdom (-19.1%), saw their import values decrease. This increasing concentration on a single partner is reflected in the rising import concentration index (HHI).

Internal EU production and export leadership shifted towards Central and Eastern Europe

Germany remains the undisputed export powerhouse, accounting for €868 million in 2025. However, the most dramatic growth occurred in Poland (+545.0%), Hungary (+472.7%), and Italy (+154.6%). On the import side, Poland's role grew massively (+605.5%), indicating its development as a major assembly and re-export hub within the EU single market. This points to a relocation of some production capacity eastward within the EU. The specialisation data confirms this, showing high comparative advantage in Bulgaria (RCA 10.05), Romania (8.77), and Hungary (2.74).

3. Structural Strengths and Emerging Vulnerabilities

Beneath the top-line trade figures, the EU's structural position in this market reveals both considerable strength and areas of emerging risk. While the bloc maintains a strong industrial base and high export propensity, price volatility in key trade relationships signals potential supply chain fragility.

The EU exhibits high export propensity, indicating deep integration into global value chains

The export propensity (exports as a share of production) stood at a high 43.7% in 2025. This signifies that a substantial portion of the EU's output in this sector is destined for international markets, underlining its competitive edge and integration into global electronics supply chains for industrial controls and power distribution.

Domestic production grew substantially, reducing net import reliance

EU production value for this product group grew by 167% over the period, from €4.94 billion to €13.19 billion. This vigorous expansion of the domestic industrial base is the primary reason for the declining net import reliance. The negative reliance figure indicates a persistent trade surplus, which improved by 35% from -40.1% to -26.1%, meaning the EU's export surplus relative to its consumption grew.

Price volatility and specific shocks highlight supply chain risks

The trade data reveals significant price volatility in certain bilateral relationships. Notably, a major price shock is detected in exports to India in 2022, where the unit price surged by 97.8%. Another significant shock occurred in export prices to Switzerland in the same year (+28.5%). These events, coinciding with the post-pandemic recovery and geopolitical tensions, underscore the sensitivity of this sector's pricing to global disruptions.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade in electronic assemblies (CN 85389091) demonstrated resilience and structural evolution. The market's value grew substantially, fuelled by rising unit prices rather than increased volumes. Geographically, a clear rebalancing occurred: exports diversified away from China towards the UK, US, and India, while imports became heavily concentrated on China. Internally, production and export leadership expanded from Germany to include rapidly growing hubs in Poland, Hungary, and Italy.

The EU's position remains strong, underpinned by a large and growing production base, a persistent trade surplus, and high export propensity indicating deep global integration. However, the increasing import concentration on China and episodes of significant price volatility in key markets represent potential vulnerabilities. The data suggests that while the EU has successfully bolstered its domestic capacity and diversified its export markets, managing dependencies and mitigating price shocks in a turbulent global trade environment will be critical for sustaining this performance.