Market evolution: Dried kidney beans (CN 071333) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in dried, shelled kidney beans (harmonized under Customs Code 071333) from 2015 to 2025. The EU is a major global consumer of this staple legume, and its trade patterns reflect shifts in global supply chains, domestic demand, and price volatility. Over the decade, the market has seen a persistent and growing trade deficit, driven by robust import growth outpacing more modest exports. This analysis examines the key trends in trade volumes, values, geographical partners, and the emergence of price shocks that have shaped the market's trajectory.

Expanding Deficit: The Diverging Paths of EU Imports and Exports

The overarching story of EU kidney bean trade from 2015 to 2025 is one of diverging growth between imports and exports, leading to a significant expansion of the trade deficit.

Import Growth Outpaces Export Performance

EU demand for kidney beans has consistently outweighed domestic production and intra-EU supply. Between the first year of the data window (2015) and the last (2025), the total value of imports from non-EU countries grew by 38.6%, rising from €356.4 million to €494.2 million. This impressive growth in value was supported by a 13.6% increase in import quantity, indicating both rising volumes and strengthening unit prices. In contrast, EU exports, while also growing, did so from a much smaller base. Export value increased by 54.3% (from €26.8 million to €41.4 million) and quantity by 61.4% (from ~15,000 tonnes to ~24,000 tonnes) General Overview.

A Widening Trade Gap

The faster absolute growth of imports compared to exports resulted in a deepening of the EU's structural deficit in this product. The trade balance (exports minus imports) deteriorated by 37.4%, moving from a deficit of approximately €330 million in 2015 to over €453 million in 2025. This indicates a growing structural reliance on external suppliers to meet EU consumer and industrial needs.

Source: Calculated from data in General Overview.

Shifting Geographies: Diversifying Suppliers and Consolidating Buyers

The geographical concentration of trade flows has evolved, showing a drive to diversify import sources while export destinations have become somewhat more volatile.

Diversification on the Import Side

The EU has actively worked to diversify its kidney bean supply chain. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value—a measure of concentration—declined by 16.4% over the period, from 1,773 to 1,483 Market Structure - Concentration. This trend is vividly illustrated by the rise of new major suppliers. While traditional partners like Argentina, the United States, and Canada remained dominant, their combined share faced challenges from rapidly growing sources.

Source: Top Partners by Value - Imports.

The most striking shift is the meteoric rise of Egypt, which saw its export value to the EU surge by over 440%, catapulting it into the top tier of suppliers. Similarly, Ukraine emerged as a notable new source. Meanwhile, China's role diminished significantly.

Export Markets: Growth in Regional Demand

EU exports are far more fragmented and aimed at neighboring or niche markets. The top destination, Serbia, saw its imports from the EU grow by 135%. Growth was also strong for exports to Norway (+900%) and the United Kingdom (+58%). A key internal dynamic is the role of EU members as both importers and re-exporters. For instance, the Netherlands is a major hub, being both the 5th largest importer within the EU and the largest EU exporter Top Reporters by Value.

Price Dynamics and Supply Shocks: Navigating a Volatile Market

The period was characterized not just by volume shifts but also by significant price inflation and episodic disruptions in the supply chain.

A Broad-Based Price Increase

Average import prices in the EU rose by 22.0% over the decade, climbing from €1,053 per tonne in 2015 to €1,285 per tonne in 2025. This increase accelerated post-2020, peaking in 2022-2023. Export unit prices followed a different path, decreasing slightly by 4.4% from €1,793 to €1,714 per tonne. The premium for "for sowing" kidney beans (CN 07133310) over general trade beans was consistently high, averaging over €3,000/t versus roughly €1,200/t for the general category in 2025 Product Segment Breakdown.

Episodic Supply Shocks and High Volatility

The market experienced significant volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) for trade flows. The most notable shocks were detected in trade with Egypt. In 2018, an extreme price shock in EU exports to Egypt saw a price spike of +4,147% compared to the prior year. More consequentially, in 2022, a severe supply shock led to a -99.4% collapse in EU export volumes to Egypt Volatility & Shocks. On the import side, a major price shock was felt from the United States in 2022, with an abnormal price increase of +26.1%. These events, often linked to global crop failures, logistical disruptions (e.g., the 2022 Ukraine war impacting Black Sea routes), and shifting agricultural policies, highlight the market's vulnerability to external disturbances.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's market for dried kidney beans has been defined by a persistent and growing trade deficit, driven by stronger import growth relative to exports. The bloc has responded to this need and global uncertainties by successfully diversifying its supplier base, notably elevating Egypt and Ukraine alongside traditional partners in the Americas. Internally, trade is concentrated in major importing nations like Italy, Spain, and Portugal, with the Netherlands acting as a key logistics and re-export hub. The decade has not been smooth, marked by a significant overall increase in import unit prices and punctuated by dramatic supply and price shocks, underscoring the market's integration into volatile global agricultural commodities. Future stability will likely depend on the continued diversification of supply chains and the sensitivity of EU demand to price fluctuations.