Market evolution: Dental cements (CN 300640) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in dental cements and other dental fillings, including bone reconstruction cements (Combined Nomenclature code 300640), over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on yearly trade data covering imports, exports, production, and structural indicators such as specialisation and concentration indices. Three overarching dynamics emerge from the data: the EU's strengthening position as a net exporter driven primarily by price appreciation rather than volume growth; the growing specialisation and concentration of trade among a limited number of EU Member States; and the increasing volatility and shock exposure in key bilateral relationships.

I. A Surplus Built on Prices, Not Volumes

Exports more than doubled in value while growing only modestly in quantity

EU exports of dental cements rose from €445.96 million in 2015 to €1,026.94 million in 2025, an increase of 130.3%. Over the same period, export volume grew by only 25.9%, from 2,751.9 tonnes to 3,464.7 tonnes. The unit export price accordingly rose by 82.9%, from €162,027 per tonne to €296,391 per tonne. This pattern indicates that the bulk of the EU's export growth was driven by price increases — likely reflecting a shift toward higher-value products, inflationary pressures, or increased bargaining power in destination markets — rather than a significant expansion of physical shipments.

Imports also rose in value but stagnated in volume

EU imports grew from €304.98 million to €524.62 million (+72.0%), yet import volumes actually declined by 8.2%, falling from 1,373.6 tonnes to 1,260.7 tonnes. The unit import price surged by 87.4%, from €221,978 to €416,067 per tonne, exceeding the growth rate of export prices. This asymmetry suggests that the EU is increasingly sourcing higher-priced or more specialised dental materials from abroad, while its own export basket is expanding in value at a slightly slower pace.

The EU's trade surplus more than tripled

The positive trade balance widened from €140.98 million to €502.32 million (+256.3%). This surplus expansion was facilitated both by the faster growth of export values relative to import values and by the fact that import volumes contracted. The EU's net import reliance moved from −8.8% in 2015 to −207.6% in 2025, confirming a shift from a position of marginal self-sufficiency to one of strong export orientation. The EU has become a major net supplier of dental cements to the rest of the world.

II. Geographical Shifts in Trade Partners and EU Producer Concentration

The United States remains the EU's primary export market, but China and Japan surged

The United States has consistently been the EU's top export destination, with shipments rising from €161.57 million to €329.14 million (+103.7%). However, the most striking growth was recorded in exports to China (from €17.80 million to €82.95 million, +366.1%) and to Japan (from €6.72 million to €56.40 million, +739.2%). These shifts point to a rapid expansion of the EU's dental materials market footprint in East Asia, possibly driven by growing dental healthcare spending and product quality perceptions in those markets.

Liechtenstein became a dominant import source, while Switzerland's role shrank

On the import side, the most dramatic shift was the rise of Liechtenstein as a source of EU imports, which grew from €51.74 million to €216.17 million (+317.8%). Liechtenstein is now the largest single import partner by value, overtaking Switzerland, whose imports fell from €69.59 million to €16.36 million (−76.5%). This likely reflects reclassification of corporate supply chains or the growing importance of Liechtenstein-based manufacturers (notably Ivoclar, headquartered in Schaan). Japan also grew as an import source (+110.5%), while the United States remained stable at around €101 million.

Germany anchors EU production and trade, while the Netherlands emerged as an export hub

Within the EU, Germany is by far the most specialised producer (RSCA of 0.336, RCA of 2.01), accounting for 42.6% of EU production value and 21.2% of total exports. Germany's exports rose from €261.34 million to €514.88 million (+97.0%). The Netherlands, however, recorded the most dramatic expansion among EU exporters, with exports surging from €16.44 million to €236.92 million (+1,341.3%), suggesting the establishment of major distribution or manufacturing operations in the country. Ireland's exports also grew notably (+46.9%).

EU production value increased from €350 million to €920 million (+162.9%), broadly tracking the growth in export values and confirming the EU's strong productive base in this sector.

Export market diversification improved while import sourcing became more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value declined from 1,570 to 1,281 (−18.4%), indicating that EU exports have become more diversified across partner countries. In contrast, the import concentration HHI rose from 1,949 to 2,609 (+33.8%), reflecting the growing dominance of Liechtenstein as an import source and a corresponding increase in supply-side dependency.

III. Rising Price Volatility and Isolated Supply Shocks

Import prices show substantial volatility, especially in the Liechtenstein corridor

The coefficient of variation of import prices across partners varies widely. Türkiye shows the highest volatility among import sources (CV of 0.646), followed by Switzerland (0.397) and Argentina (0.354). Japan, by contrast, is a remarkably stable import source (CV of only 0.117). For exports, Japan shows extreme volatility (CV of 1.262), driven by large swings in export values over the period, while Brazil exports also exhibit high instability (CV of 1.047).

A major import price shock from Liechtenstein in 2021

The most significant shock event detected in the data is a price shock in imports from Liechtenstein centred on 2021, with an abnormality score of 68.0 and a price shift of +196.8%. This event, which accounted for 32.4% of total import value in that year, likely reflects a combination of product-mix effects (higher-value dental materials being sourced), pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, or pricing strategy changes by Liechtenstein-based manufacturers. Two smaller shocks were detected in export prices: one to Norway in 2019 (+42.9% price shift) and one to the United Arab Emirates in 2020 (+81.8%).

Trade openness and export propensity intensified markedly

The EU's trade intensity (exports plus imports as a share of production) rose from 66.1% to 113.9% (+72.2%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled from 51.5% to 121.4% (+136.0%). These figures indicate that the EU dental cements industry has become deeply integrated into global markets, with exports now exceeding domestic production — a hallmark of a sector with strong international competitiveness and possibly significant intra-industry trade (re-export or toll manufacturing).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in dental cements (CN 300640) has been characterised by robust value growth underpinned by rising unit prices, a substantial expansion of the trade surplus, and increasing geographic diversification of export markets — particularly toward China and Japan. On the import side, the emergence of Liechtenstein as the dominant supplier has reshaped trade flows and increased concentration risk, as highlighted by the 2021 price shock. At the EU level, Germany remains the anchor of the sector, but the Netherlands' rapid ascent as an export hub signals evolving intra-EU production and logistics dynamics. The EU's export propensity now exceeds 120% of production, confirming the sector's strong outward orientation. Going forward, monitoring the growing import concentration on Liechtenstein and the price volatility in key bilateral relationships will be important for assessing supply resilience in this strategically relevant health-products market.