Market evolution: Cotton terry towels (CN 630260) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the EU trade dynamics for cotton terry towels (customs code 630260) from 2015 to 2025. The sector exhibits a pronounced structural shift: EU domestic production has contracted sharply, leading to a dramatically expanded reliance on imports. While EU exports have also grown, particularly in value, the trade deficit has widened considerably. The market has seen significant reorientation of supply sources, increased vulnerability to price shocks, and a notable rise in export activity despite the production decline.
The Widening Trade Deficit: A Story of Volume versus Value
The EU's trade in cotton terry towels is characterized by a deepening structural deficit, driven by a significant increase in import volumes outpacing the growth in export values.
Import volumes surged while export prices improved. Between the first and last periods, EU imports of cotton terry towels grew by 34.9% in quantity (from 122,613 to 165,373 tonnes) and 29.9% in value (from €747 million to €970 million). In contrast, exports increased more modestly by 10.0% in volume (from 12,218 to 13,439 tonnes) but saw a higher 31.0% increase in value (from €132 million to €172 million). This indicates that while the EU sources more physical product from abroad, its exports command higher prices, likely reflecting niche or higher-quality production.
The trade balance deteriorated substantially. As a result of these trends, the EU's trade deficit (balance of trade in value) worsened by 29.6%, growing from -€615 million to -€798 million. The maximum deficit reached -€898 million in 2022, a year of significant price shocks. This expanding deficit underscores the EU's growing dependence on external suppliers to meet domestic demand.
| Metric | First Period (2015) | Last Period (2025) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports Value (€) | 746,892,903 | 970,049,388 | +29.9% |
| Imports Quantity (t) | 122,613 | 165,373 | +34.9% |
| Exports Value (€) | 131,639,976 | 172,455,400 | +31.0% |
| Exports Quantity (t) | 12,218 | 13,439 | +10.0% |
| Trade Balance (€) | -615,252,927 | -797,593,988 | -29.6% |
Source: EU trade overview for CN 630260
The EU's domestic production has collapsed. The data reveals a dramatic decline in EU production of cotton terry towels, with output quantity falling by 69.2% and value by 63.9% over the period. This erosion of the industrial base is the fundamental driver behind the ballooning import needs and the structural shift in the market.
Source: EU production volumes for CN 630260
The Shifting Geography of Supply and Demand
The period witnessed a major reorientation of the EU's supply chain and a diversification of its export destinations, with Pakistan emerging as the dominant supplier.
Pakistan consolidated its position as the leading supplier. Imports from Pakistan surged by 163.8% in value, rising from €159 million to €421 million. By 2025, Pakistan alone accounted for 38.1% of total import value, up from a significant but smaller share. This growth came partly at the expense of Türkiye, whose share fell by 25.2%, and China, which saw a 26.4% decline. India and Bangladesh also grew as suppliers, with increases of 63.0% and 63.5% respectively.
| Top Import Partners | Value 2015 (€) | Value 2025 (€) | Percentage Change | Share of 2025 Imports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 159,474,845 | 420,626,008 | +163.8% | 38.1% |
| Türkiye | 300,070,300 | 224,512,460 | -25.2% | 20.3% |
| India | 91,950,756 | 149,883,675 | +63.0% | 13.6% |
| China | 96,144,362 | 70,715,716 | -26.4% | 6.4% |
| Bangladesh | 36,436,454 | 59,577,492 | +63.5% | 5.4% |
Source: Top import partners for CN 630260
EU exports diversified significantly, with the US market becoming crucial. While Switzerland and the UK remained the top two destinations, exports to the United States more than doubled (+111.4%), making it the third-largest market. Other non-traditional markets showed exceptional growth: exports to Ukraine grew by 338.3%, to Canada by 365.4%, and to Morocco by 269.0%. This suggests EU exporters successfully found new high-value niches.
| Top Export Partners | Value 2015 (€) | Value 2025 (€) | Percentage Change | Share of 2025 Exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 26,846,805 | 30,455,899 | +13.4% | 17.7% |
| United Kingdom | 30,115,973 | 22,765,432 | -24.4% | 13.2% |
| United States | 17,296,451 | 36,564,927 | +111.4% | 21.2% |
| Norway | 7,490,183 | 9,571,979 | +27.8% | 5.6% |
| Morocco | 1,537,080 | 5,671,760 | +269.0% | 3.3% |
Source: Top export partners for CN 630260
Among EU members, production and export roles diverged. Portugal is the standout EU exporter, holding a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 15.19) and increasing its export share. Germany remains a major importer but is not a leading exporter. France and Italy showed strong growth in exports, while Poland's import volume more than doubled, highlighting its role as a major EU consumer and re-distributor.
Source: Specialisation of EU reporters
Increased Vulnerability to Supply Shocks and Price Volatility
The growing import dependence has heightened the EU's exposure to supply chain risks and price volatility, as evidenced by specific shock events and rising concentration metrics.
The import market became more concentrated, amplifying risk. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 13.5%, indicating a less diversified supplier base. The concentration in import volume grew even more sharply (+43.0%), highlighting that physical supply chains became more reliant on a smaller group of countries, predominantly Pakistan. This increased concentration heightens vulnerability to country-specific disruptions.
2022 was a year of significant price shocks for key partners. The analysis detected abnormal price movements in 2022 for imports from India (abnormality score: 19.8, price shift: +27.5%) and Pakistan (abnormality: 17.1, price shift: +32.6%). For exports, prices to the United States spiked by 41.8% (abnormality: 18.0). These shocks likely reflect global pressures such as raw material cost inflation, energy prices, and post-pandemic logistics disruptions.
Net import reliance has skyrocketed, fundamentally altering autonomy. The most striking vulnerability metric is the EU's net import reliance, which surged from 5.6% to 74.7% over the period. Similarly, trade intensity (the share of trade in EU consumption) grew from 8.0% to 93.3%. This confirms that the EU market is now almost entirely supplied through international trade, with minimal domestic buffer.
Export propensity rose alongside import reliance, creating a dual dependency. The EU's export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 1.3% to 68.8%. While this shows strong export capability, it also means that a large share of a shrinking domestic production base is exported, further reinforcing the need for imports and creating a complex interdependency.
Conclusion
The EU market for cotton terry towels has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade is defined by a severe contraction in domestic production, which has forced the bloc to become overwhelmingly reliant on imports, leading to a widened trade deficit. The supply landscape has shifted decisively towards Pakistan, while the EU's export sector has found renewed strength in high-value, diversified markets like the US. However, this structural change has come at the cost of increased vulnerability: the supply base is more concentrated, the market experienced significant price shocks in 2022, and traditional metrics of trade autonomy have deteriorated to historic lows. The sector's future stability is now closely tied to the geopolitical and economic health of its key external suppliers.