Market evolution: copper wire rod (CN 740811) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in copper wire rod (CN 740811 — wire of refined copper, with a maximum cross-sectional dimension of >6 mm) over the period 2015–2025. The EU remains a major net exporter of this product: in 2025, exports reached €2.89 billion against €407 million in imports, yielding a trade surplus of €2.48 billion. Over the full decade, however, several structural shifts have reshaped the market — from the geography of trade partners to the interplay between rising unit values and stagnating volumes, to growing vulnerability to supply shocks. The following sections unpack these dynamics.

1. Surging unit values mask stagnating export volumes

EU export values grew strongly while quantities barely moved

Over 2015–2025, the value of EU exports rose by 75.4%, from €1.65 billion to €2.89 billion. Yet export quantities increased by only 1.4%, from 314,000 tonnes to 318,330 tonnes. This divergence is entirely explained by the near-doubling of average unit export prices, from €5,249/tonne in 2015 to €9,084/tonne in 2025 (+73.1%).

Import prices followed the same upward trajectory

EU imports displayed an even more dramatic value increase — +505% in value terms (from €67 million to €407 million) — partly driven by a genuine volume expansion (+250%, from 12,801 tonnes to 44,825 tonnes) and partly by the same price inflation. The average import price rose from €5,254/tonne to €9,084/tonne (+72.9%), almost exactly mirroring the export-side price increase.

Domestic production declined in volume but rose in value

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of copper wire rod fell by 17.8% in quantity (from 2.53 billion kg to 2.08 billion kg), yet its production value increased by 11.7% (from €10.26 billion to €11.45 billion). This pattern — lower volumes but higher values — confirms that the entire copper value chain has been repriced upward, likely reflecting sustained increases in global copper commodity prices and downstream demand.

2. Geopolitical shocks reshaped the geography of EU trade

EU imports have been disrupted by two major supply shocks

The volatility analysis identifies two significant supply shocks on the import side:

• Egypt (2019): EU imports from Egypt collapsed by 95.8% in 2019, an event classified as a supply shock with an abnormality score of 2.6. Egypt had been a growing source, but its share of EU imports fell from a peak near 17.8% to near zero. Imports from Egypt have since recovered strongly, reaching €102 million in 2025.
• Russia (2023): EU imports from the Russian Federation fell to zero in 2023, coinciding with the sanctions regime following the invasion of Ukraine. Russia had been the second-largest import supplier, with its import value peaking at €109 million before the cutoff. The 2025 residual of €87 million likely reflects flows prior to the full enforcement of trade restrictions.

Morocco has become the EU's dominant export destination

The most striking geographic shift on the export side is the rise of Morocco. EU exports to Morocco tripled from €288 million to €1.03 billion (+257%), making it by far the largest single destination and representing over one-third of all EU copper wire rod exports in 2025. This growth likely reflects the expansion of Morocco's cable and automotive wiring harness manufacturing sector, which sources semi-finished copper inputs from the EU.

Western Balkans and North Africa replaced traditional partners

Several Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina) and North African countries (Morocco, Tunisia) have surged as export destinations, growing by hundreds of percent. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom — the second-largest partner in 2015 — declined by 27% (from €362 million to €264 million), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions. Türkiye remained flat at roughly €60 million.

Türkiye became the leading import supplier, replacing Russia

On the import side, Türkiye rose from €20 million in 2015 to €211 million in 2025 (+962%), making it the top non-EU supplier of copper wire rod. This dramatic increase may reflect both Türkiye's growing refining capacity and its role as an intermediary for metals of various origins. Canada also emerged as a new supplier (€40 million in 2025 from virtually zero), introducing a new geographic source.

3. The EU is consolidating its export specialisation while import concentration rises

The EU's net export position has strengthened considerably

The net import reliance metric (exports minus imports as a share of production) moved from −7.7% in 2015 to −25.9% in 2025, confirming that the EU has become significantly more export-oriented in this product. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 13.8% to 24.4%, a 77% increase, while trade intensity (exports + imports relative to production plus domestic consumption) grew from 19.1% to 27.2%.

These figures indicate that the EU is exporting a growing share of its production, even as production volumes themselves have declined. The growing gap between export propensity and trade intensity suggests that while the EU is a strong net exporter, imports are also rising in relative terms — a dual dynamic of outward orientation and selective import dependence.

Export concentration has increased on both the partner and reporter sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export partners rose from 1,146 to 1,630 (+42%), indicating that EU exports are becoming more concentrated in fewer destination markets — largely driven by Morocco's growing dominance. Import partner concentration rose even more sharply, from 2,305 to 3,450 (+50%), reflecting the shift toward fewer but larger suppliers (mainly Türkiye). While an HHI of 3,450 for imports approaches a moderately concentrated market, the export side remains relatively diversified despite the increase.

Among EU member states, the most specialised exporters in copper wire rod are Poland (RSCA: 0.47), Sweden (0.42), Greece (0.35), Belgium (0.30), and Germany (0.28). Together, Belgium and Germany account for a dominant share of EU export value: Belgium's exports grew from €510 million to €851 million (+67%) and Germany's from €346 million to €754 million (+118%), with Spain also surging to €656 million (+119%).

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, EU trade in copper wire rod (CN 740811) has been shaped by three converging forces: the repricing of copper commodities, the reorientation of trade geography in response to geopolitical disruption, and a strengthening of the EU's net export position.

The dominant story is price-driven: export values grew by 75% while volumes were essentially flat, and production values rose even as production quantities declined by 18%. The second major development is geographic: Morocco has become the EU's single largest export market, the Western Balkans have emerged as significant destinations, and Türkiye has replaced Russia as the leading import supplier — a shift accelerated by sanctions. Third, the EU's export propensity and net export surplus have both expanded substantially, confirming the bloc's competitive position in this segment of the copper value chain.

These trends carry a policy-relevant implication: while the EU's strong export orientation provides resilience, rising import concentration (HHI approaching 3,500) and heavy reliance on a small number of suppliers — particularly Türkiye — introduce a degree of supply-side vulnerability. Combined with the demonstrated impact of geopolitical shocks (Egypt in 2019, Russia in 2023), diversification of import sources remains a relevant strategic consideration.