Market evolution: Copper strip (CN 740911) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union concerning product CN 740911 – refined copper plates, sheets, and strip in coils (thickness >0.15 mm) – over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade position for this strategic material. Initially a strong net exporter with a substantial trade surplus, the bloc has transitioned towards a model characterized by dramatically rising imports and a diminishing trade surplus. This shift has been driven by a combination of declining domestic production, changing global supply chains, and evolving demand patterns. The analysis below dissects this evolution, its structural causes, and the resulting market vulnerabilities and strengths.
For full details on the product and data scope, see the Overview page.
1. From Export Strength to Import Dependence: The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus
The most striking trend in the data is the reversal of the EU's traditional role as a dominant exporter. While the value of exports increased, this was driven almost entirely by price rises rather than growth in volume, coinciding with an unprecedented surge in imports.
The paradox of rising export value and falling volumes
Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU exports of copper strip rose by 22.5% to €504.5 million. However, this masks a 31.6% decline in export volume, from 65,282 tonnes to 44,643 tonnes. The average export price consequently soared by 79.2%, from €6,307 per tonne to €11,301 per tonne. This indicates that the EU's export position has become increasingly reliant on high-value or specialized shipments rather than bulk quantity.
The explosive growth of imports into the EU
In parallel, EU imports underwent a transformative expansion. Import value skyrocketed by 830.8%, from a mere €26.3 million in 2015 to €244.8 million in 2025. Import volumes grew even more dramatically, by 479.3%, from 4,074 tonnes to 23,601 tonnes. This rapid increase is the primary factor reshaping the market.
The resultant contraction of the trade surplus
The combination of stagnant export volumes and explosive import growth led to a significant erosion of the EU's historically positive trade balance. The trade surplus shrank by 32.6%, from €385.5 million in 2015 to €259.7 million in 2025. While the EU remains a net exporter in value terms, its net position has weakened considerably.
Key Trade Metrics (2015 vs. 2025)
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (€ M) | 411.8 | 504.5 | +22.5 |
| Export Quantity (t) | 65,282 | 44,643 | -31.6 |
| Import Value (€ M) | 26.3 | 244.8 | +830.8 |
| Import Quantity (t) | 4,074 | 23,601 | +479.3 |
| Trade Balance (€ M) | 385.5 | 259.7 | -32.6 |
Source: EU Trade Overview
2. A Restructured Supply Base: New Partners and a Declining Domestic Footprint
The surge in imports was not sourced from traditional partners but from new, fast-growing suppliers, reflecting a broader reorientation of global and regional supply chains. Concurrently, EU domestic production contracted sharply, creating the conditions for increased import reliance.
The rise of new and proximate suppliers
The geographic origin of EU imports changed profoundly. While Türkiye and Serbia remained significant, the most explosive growth came from other partners:
- Bosnia and Herzegovina became the largest single source of imports by 2025 (€70.4 million), up from negligible levels in 2015.
- China saw its exports to the EU climb from €0.4 million to €55.6 million.
- Korea, Republic of and India also emerged as major suppliers, with growth rates exceeding 17,000% and 32,000% respectively.
This pattern suggests a combination of cost-competitive production in Eastern Europe (Bosnia, Serbia) and strategic exports from major Asian industrial players (China, Korea).
A shift towards regional concentration in EU imports
Despite the diversification of supplier countries, import concentration actually decreased (the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for imports fell by 24.1%). However, the volatility of trade flows with newer partners like China, Bosnia, and India is notably high, as measured by their coefficient of variation. The stability of trade with long-standing partners like Switzerland (CV: 0.36) and the UK (CV: 0.34) is much higher.
A contracting EU production base underpins import needs
The shift towards a more import-reliant model is underpinned by a significant decline in domestic EU production. Production volume fell by 46.9% over the period, from 1.056 billion kg in 2015 to 560 million kg in 2025. Production value also fell by 12.6%. This contraction is the fundamental driver explaining why the EU, despite being a major exporter, needed to source vastly more material from outside its borders.
Detailed production volumes and specialised EU producers can be explored via the Production Volumes and Specialisation dashboards.
3. Managing Volatility: Price Shocks and Strategic Autonomy
The reconfigured market introduced new sources of volatility, particularly through price shocks from Asian suppliers. Nevertheless, the EU's strategic position, while more import-reliant, shows nuanced improvements in certain autonomy metrics.
Price shocks dominated the volatility landscape
The most significant supply shocks identified were price-driven events related to China:
- A major import price shock in 2020: This event was highly abnormal (abnormality score: 33.4), involved a 49.7% price shift, and affected flows representing 26.7% of import value. This likely reflects pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and commodity price spikes.
- An export price shock in 2017: A 47.1% shift in export prices to China suggests a sharp adjustment in either demand or competitive pricing.
The high volatility of import flows from China (CV: 1.32), Bosnia (CV: 1.33), and India (CV: 1.20) indicates that while these sources are important, they contribute to greater trade flow instability compared to traditional partners.
Net import reliance decreased despite import growth
A key indicator of vulnerability, net import reliance (calculated as (Imports - Exports) / (Production + Imports - Exports)), showed a counterintuitive improvement. It moved from -34.2% in 2015 to -20.6% in 2025 (a 39.7% change). A negative value indicates the EU is a net exporter. The improvement suggests that while imports grew, they did not grow as fast as the combined change in production and exports, slightly reducing the external dependency of the overall market system.
Trade intensity highlights the market's openness
Other autonomy metrics show a mixed picture:
- Trade intensity (the share of trade in domestic production and consumption) rose by 23.1%, indicating the market became more open and globally integrated.
- Export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased by 8.0%, showing that a larger portion of EU production was directed towards export markets.
Further analysis of vulnerability metrics is available on the Net Import Reliance and Trade Intensity pages.
Conclusion
The EU market for refined copper strip (CN 740911) underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc evolved from a position of significant net export strength to one characterized by a rapidly growing import demand, driven by a 46.9% decline in domestic production. This has fundamentally altered trade flows, with new suppliers—most notably Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, and Korea—displacing or supplementing traditional partners to meet the shortfall.
While the EU maintained a positive trade balance of €260 million in 2025, it was sustained by higher prices rather than volume, with export quantities falling by over 30%. The reconfiguration of supply chains has introduced new volatility risks, particularly from price shocks associated with Asian suppliers. Strategic autonomy metrics offer a nuanced view: while trade intensity increased, net import reliance actually showed a slight improvement, suggesting the system found a new, albeit more import-dependent, equilibrium.
The key takeaway is that the EU's copper strip market is now more integrated into global and regional supply chains, making it more exposed to external shocks but also reflecting a shift in comparative advantage. Future resilience will depend on managing this import reliance, monitoring supplier volatility, and supporting the remaining specialised domestic production base.