Market evolution: Computer keyboards (CN 84716060) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in computer keyboards (Combined Nomenclature code 84716060) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers trade with non-EU countries and draws on official trade data reported by EU Member States.

The decade under review has been marked by a striking divergence between value and volume trends: while the monetary worth of keyboard trade has grown substantially, physical quantities have contracted. This points to significant unit-price inflation, product upgrading, and a possible shift toward higher-end keyboards. At the same time, the EU's external trade balance has deteriorated sharply and its import dependency has deepened, raising questions about supply-chain concentration and strategic vulnerability.

The report is organised around three main findings: (1) the persistent value–volume divergence; (2) the geographic reshaping of trade partners; and (3) the EU's growing import dependency and declining domestic production.

1. The Value–Volume Paradox: More Money, Fewer Keyboards

A defining feature of the 2015–2025 period is that the monetary value of trade has grown while physical volumes have fallen — for both imports and exports.

1.1 Import and export values have grown despite shrinking volumes

EU imports of keyboards rose in value from €481.2 million in 2015 to €875.5 million in 2025, a gain of 81.9%. Over the same period, import weight declined from 42,376 tonnes to 29,228 tonnes (−31.0%), and the number of items imported fell from 47.3 million to 45.4 million pieces (−3.8%). On the export side, value grew from €170.0 million to €220.4 million (+29.6%), while volume fell from 5,343 tonnes to 3,350 tonnes (−37.3%) and item count dropped from 5.7 million to 4.3 million pieces (−25.0%).

The fact that item counts held up better than tonnage — particularly on the import side, where items fell only 3.8% while weight dropped 31.0% — suggests that keyboards have become lighter on average, consistent with the market shift toward thinner, lighter designs (e.g. slim mechanical keyboards, low-profile wireless models).

1.2 Unit prices have surged across the board

The divergence between value and volume translates into sharply higher unit prices. The average import price per tonne rose from €11,355 to €29,952 (+163.8%), while the per-piece import price climbed from €10.18 to €19.26 (+89.2%). Export prices tell a similar story: the per-tonne price increased from €31,805 to €65,765 (+106.8%), and the per-piece price from €29.69 to €51.32 (+72.9%).

Several factors likely explain this price inflation. First, input costs (semiconductors, shipping, raw materials) surged during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2021–2022 global logistics crisis. Second, consumer preferences have shifted toward premium keyboards — mechanical switches, programmable features, wireless connectivity — commanding higher unit values. Third, inflationary pressures in the euro area fed through to final prices. The fact that export prices consistently exceed import prices (by a ratio of roughly 2.5–3.4x per piece) is consistent with the EU specialising in higher-end or niche keyboards (e.g. ergonomic, gaming, or industrial models).

1.3 The trade deficit has more than doubled

The combined effect of surging import values and more moderate export growth has been a sharp deterioration in the EU trade balance. The deficit widened from −€311.2 million in 2015 to −€655.1 million in 2025 (−110.5%). It reached its widest point at −€776.3 million in 2022, coinciding with the peak of global supply-chain disruptions and energy-cost spikes.

The partial recovery from the 2022 trough likely reflects a combination of inventory destocking and some easing of logistics costs, but the structural deficit remains far wider than at the start of the period.

2. Geographic Consolidation and Emerging Supply-Chain Shifts

The EU's import structure has become significantly more concentrated on China, even as several smaller suppliers have emerged or declined. Export destinations have shifted as well, with geopolitical events clearly visible in the data.

2.1 China's dominance has deepened substantially

China was already the EU's primary keyboard supplier in 2015, accounting for €386.8 million in imports. By 2025, that figure had risen to €804.6 million — a 108.0% increase. At its peak in 2022, Chinese imports reached €919.2 million. China's share of total EU imports by value has therefore grown markedly.

This growing concentration is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value, which rose from 6,535 in 2015 to 8,465 in 2025 (+29.5%), indicating a more concentrated supplier base. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered "highly concentrated"; the EU's keyboard imports are well above that threshold.

2.2 Hong Kong has collapsed; Vietnam has emerged

Two contrasting trajectories stand out. Hong Kong, once the EU's second-largest keyboard supplier at €30.8 million, has seen imports plunge to €1.5 million (−95.0%). This near-total collapse likely reflects the re-routing of manufacturing and transhipment flows through mainland China, a trend accelerated by Hong Kong's political changes and the erosion of its preferential trade arrangements.

By contrast, Vietnam has risen from a minor supplier (€4.4 million in 2015) to a meaningful one (€27.7 million in 2025, +527.3%). This is consistent with the broader "China+1" strategy adopted by electronics manufacturers seeking to diversify production away from China. Nevertheless, Vietnam's share remains small relative to China's overwhelming dominance.

2.3 Export destinations show diversification — with one dramatic exception

On the export side, the EU has diversified its customer base. The export HHI by value fell from 1,637 to 1,234 (−24.6%), indicating a more even spread of export destinations. Notably, Switzerland surged from €15.2 million to €48.6 million (+218.9%), making it a major export market, while Norway also grew strongly (+79.9%).

The most dramatic shift is the near-total collapse of exports to Russia, from €6.6 million to just €10,102 (−99.8%). This corresponds to a detected supply shock centred on 2025 with an abnormality score of 3.1 and a shift of −99.7%, clearly attributable to EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

2.4 Volatility is highest among smaller, less stable trade links

Volatility analysis (coefficient of variation) shows that the most stable import partner is China (CV = 0.18), reflecting its deep, established role. Among smaller partners, volatility is far higher: Hong Kong (0.82), the United Kingdom (0.88), and Korea (0.83) on the import side. On the export side, Russia (0.74) is the most volatile, as expected given its collapse, while Switzerland (0.20) and Norway (0.19) have been relatively stable growth markets.

3. Deepening Import Dependency and Declining Domestic Capacity

A third major dynamic is the EU's growing reliance on external suppliers and the simultaneous contraction of its own keyboard manufacturing base.

3.1 Net import reliance has climbed to nearly 88%

The EU's net import reliance — defined as net imports as a share of apparent consumption — rose from 60.6% in 2015 to 87.4% in 2025 (+44.1%). It peaked at 88.9% in 2022. This means that nearly nine out of every ten keyboards consumed in the EU are now sourced from outside the bloc.

3.2 EU keyboard production has halved in value

Data from the EU's Prodcom survey (code 26.20.16.50) shows that domestic production has declined significantly. Output fell from 6.0 million pieces in 2015 to 5.0 million in 2025 (−16.7%), while production value dropped from €189.5 million to an estimated €90.0 million (−52.5%). At its lowest, production value fell to €68.6 million, barely a third of the 2015 level.

The sharper decline in value than in volume mirrors the same phenomenon observed in trade data — a shift in the product mix, though in this case possibly toward lower-margin models produced domestically while higher-value production migrates offshore.

3.3 Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of EU members

Within the EU, keyboard production and export capacity are highly concentrated in a small number of Member States. In 2025, the most specialised economies (measured by revealed symmetric comparative advantage, RSCA) were:

The Netherlands alone accounts for 41.7% of the EU's keyboard exports, though this figure likely reflects its role as a major logistics and re-export hub (home to the port of Rotterdam and major distribution centres) rather than purely domestic manufacturing. Czechia, by contrast, has a strong RSCA of 0.558 combined with a meaningful production share, suggesting genuine manufacturing specialisation — consistent with the country's broader role in electronics assembly.

At the other end of the spectrum, countries such as Malta (RSCA = −0.994), Cyprus (−0.983), Portugal (−0.963), and Ireland (−0.918) have negligible keyboard export capacity.

3.4 The EU importers' landscape is also shifting internally

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands is the largest importer (€369.6 million in 2025, +78.1% from 2015), again reflecting its hub function. Poland (+264.6%), Italy (+213.0%), Belgium (+1,107.2%), and France (+180.4%) have all seen their import values rise sharply, suggesting both growing consumption and expanding distribution roles within the EU single market.

Conclusion

The EU market for computer keyboards (CN 84716060) has undergone significant structural change over the 2015–2025 period. Three overarching trends stand out:

1. Value growth masks volume decline. Trade values have risen substantially — imports by 81.9%, exports by 29.6% — but physical volumes have contracted. This divergence, driven by unit-price increases of 70–160%, reflects a combination of input-cost inflation, product upgrading, and the market's shift toward higher-end keyboards.

2. Import concentration on China has intensified. China's share of EU keyboard imports has grown to an overwhelming majority, and the import HHI has risen by nearly 30%. Emerging alternatives like Vietnam remain small. On the export side, the EU has diversified its customer base, though the near-total loss of the Russian market — a direct consequence of geopolitical sanctions — is a stark reminder of how quickly trade links can be severed.

3. EU production capacity is eroding. Domestic output has halved in value, net import reliance has climbed to 87%, and the trade deficit has more than doubled. Only a few EU Member States — notably Czechia, the Netherlands, and Poland — retain meaningful specialisation in keyboard-related trade.

Looking ahead, the EU's heavy reliance on a single supplier (China) for a product essential to digital infrastructure presents a strategic vulnerability. Diversification efforts — whether through supporting reshoring, fostering trade with alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia, or investing in higher-value domestic production — would help reduce this concentration risk. The rise of Vietnam as a keyboard supplier, though still at an early stage, offers a tentative signal that such diversification is beginning.