Market evolution: Commercial coffee machines (CN 84198120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of non-domestic percolators and other appliances for making coffee and other hot drinks (CN 84198120) across the European Union from 2015 to 2025. The product, classified under the overview dashboard, covers commercial-grade equipment used in cafés, restaurants, offices, and other professional settings rather than household appliances. Over the decade under review, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter in this segment, driven largely by Italian industrial strength. The period was marked by sustained value growth, a structural shift in sourcing patterns, and notable price inflation on the import side — all set against the backdrop of a global pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and evolving consumer coffee culture.

1. A Definitive Trade Surplus Built on Strong Export Growth

EU exports nearly doubled in value while the trade surplus more than doubled

The EU's external trade in commercial coffee machines expanded considerably between 2015 and 2025. Exports grew from €460.9 million to €753.7 million, representing a 63.5% increase in value. Import growth was far more modest, rising only 5.7% (from €225.0 million to €237.8 million). As a result, the trade surplus widened from €235.8 million in 2015 to €515.9 million in 2025 — a 118.8% improvement.

Italy is the dominant EU exporter, accounting for the majority of outbound shipments

The concentration of EU exports is overwhelmingly driven by Italy, whose exports rose from €310.8 million to €529.2 million (+70.3%). Italy alone represented approximately 70% of all EU exports by value in 2025, a share consistent with its industrial heritage in espresso machine manufacturing (brands such as La Marzocco, Nuova Simonelli, and others). Germany, the second-largest exporter, grew from €62.3 million to €91.3 million (+46.6%), while Spain (+60.8%) and Portugal (+212.6%) also showed strong gains, though from smaller bases.

Diversification of export partners has increased, with emerging markets gaining importance

Among EU export destinations, the United States remained the largest single market, growing from €49.7 million to €99.6 million (+100.6%). The United Kingdom, the second-largest partner, grew more moderately (+19.4%). Notably, exports to the United Arab Emirates nearly tripled (+213.5%), reflecting the Gulf region's booming café and hospitality sector. In contrast, exports to Russia fell sharply from €11.6 million to €4.7 million (−59.6%), a decline likely linked to EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. South Korea (−19.1%) also saw reduced EU deliveries.

2. A Structural Shift in Import Sourcing: From Switzerland to China

Switzerland's share of EU imports has declined sharply, while China has surged

A major structural shift occurred on the import side. In 2015, Switzerland was the dominant supplier, accounting for €175.4 million — nearly 78% of all imports by value. By 2025, Swiss imports had fallen to €104.8 million (−40.2%). Over the same period, Chinese imports nearly quadrupled, rising from €24.3 million to €75.2 million (+209.2%). This shift reflects both the growth of Chinese manufacturing capabilities for commercial-grade equipment and changing sourcing strategies by EU importers.

Import volumes fell dramatically while prices surged, indicating a shift toward higher-value sourcing

One of the most striking trends is the divergence between import volumes and values. Import quantities fell by 33.1% (from 8,568 tonnes to 5,733 tonnes), yet import values rose by 5.7%. This implies that the average import price per tonne increased by 58.0% (from €26,267 to €41,490/tonne). Several factors may explain this: a compositional shift toward higher-specification machines, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions during and after COVID-19, and the growing premiumisation trend in commercial coffee equipment.

Import concentration has declined, reducing dependence on any single supplier

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 6,250 to 3,120 (−50.1%) by value, moving from a highly concentrated structure to a moderately concentrated one. This reflects the erosion of Switzerland's near-monopoly and the diversification toward China, the US, the UK, and other suppliers. The declining concentration reduces the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions from any single country — a consideration that has gained policy salience since the pandemic.

3. Price Dynamics, Production Trends, and Sectoral Resilience

Price inflation affected both exports and imports, but import prices rose faster

Across the period, unit prices increased on both sides of the trade ledger. Export unit prices rose 33.5% (from €33,827 to €45,149/tonne), while import unit prices rose 58.0% (from €26,267 to €41,490/tonne). The faster import price increase is partly explained by the shift in supplier composition — while Chinese products are often associated with lower price points, the data shows rising average prices, suggesting EU importers are sourcing more premium commercial equipment from China and paying higher prices for Swiss-origin machines.

A notable import price shock hit Switzerland-origin shipments in 2021

The shock detection analysis identifies a significant price shock in Swiss imports centred on 2021, with an abnormality score of 51.0 and a price shift of +184.6%. Given that Switzerland accounted for 79.7% of import value at the time, this shock had outsized market impact. The timing aligns with post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and global input cost inflation. A smaller export price shock was detected for Taiwan-origin exports in 2017 (+36.8%), though its market impact was limited (2.4% value share).

EU production grew strongly, reinforcing export capacity

EU production volumes of non-domestic coffee machines rose from 336,668 units to 509,928 units (+51.5%), while production value grew from €416.0 million to €698.7 million (+68.0%). This indicates both volume expansion and upward price migration within domestic manufacturing. The specialisation data confirms Italy's commanding position, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 and an RCA of 5.81 — by far the highest in the EU. Italy accounted for 46.5% of EU production in 2025. Other specialised producers include Romania (RSCA 0.41) and Portugal (RSCA 0.24), though at much smaller scales.

The EU's net exporter position strengthened dramatically, with growing trade intensity and export propensity

The net import reliance indicator moved from −67.1% to −291.8%, reflecting an intensifying surplus position. Export propensity — the ratio of exports to production — rose from 48.5% to 105.8%, meaning the EU now exports more than it produces domestically in value terms (accounting for re-exports and higher-value-added export products). Trade intensity doubled from 52.5% to 104.4%, indicating that this sector has become significantly more integrated into global markets.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU has consolidated its role as a leading global supplier of commercial coffee machines, with the trade surplus more than doubling and Italy remaining the undisputed production and export hub. The decade brought significant structural changes: Switzerland's near-dominance of EU imports gave way to a more diversified supplier base, with China emerging as a major source. Import volumes declined sharply even as values held steady, pointing to premiumisation and price inflation in sourcing. The sector weathered the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with exports to Russia collapsing while Gulf and Asian markets absorbed more EU output. EU production grew robustly, and the sector's trade intensity and export propensity both exceeded 100% by 2025, underscoring the deep international integration of European commercial coffee machine manufacturers. Looking ahead, the key risks centre on continued price pressures, the evolving competitive threat from Chinese manufacturers, and the need to sustain innovation in a premiumised global market.