Market evolution: Combed wool (CN 510529) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of combed wool (CN 510529 — "Wool, combed, excl. that in fragments 'open tops'") for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The EU has historically been a major importer of combed wool, feeding its textile manufacturing base — particularly in Italy, Germany, and Czechia. Over the decade analysed, the market has undergone a pronounced structural contraction: EU production of combed wool fell by 84.3% in volume, while total imports declined by 27.4% in value. At the same time, the EU's net import reliance nearly doubled, rising from 31.5% to 66.7%. The following sections explore the main dynamics behind these headline figures.

1. A Sector in Structural Retreat: Collapsing Production and Declining Trade Volumes

EU production of combed wool has experienced a dramatic contraction

The most striking feature of this market over the past decade is the near-disappearance of EU domestic production. Production volume fell from 126.9 million kg in 2015 to just 19.9 million kg by 2025, a decline of 84.3%. In value terms, output dropped from €375.8 million to €152.9 million (−59.3%). This reflects the long-term trend of textile processing relocating outside Europe, driven by labour costs, environmental regulation, and competition from Asian producers.

Import and export values have both declined, but imports remain dominant

(Source: General Overview — Trade)

Import volumes fell roughly in proportion to their value, meaning unit prices remained broadly stable over the period (around €9,400/t). By contrast, export volumes declined less steeply (−19.3%) than export values (−26.6%), indicating a decline in the average unit price of EU exports from €8,051/t to €7,330/t. This suggests that the EU's residual export capacity has shifted toward lower-value segments.

The trade deficit narrowed, but only because imports shrank faster

The EU's trade deficit in combed wool improved from −€299 million in 2015 to −€217 million in 2025 — an apparent improvement of 27.6%. However, this does not reflect growing competitiveness; rather, it mirrors the broader contraction of EU demand for combed wool as domestic processing capacity continues to erode. The deficit reached its widest point at −€381 million (likely in 2017–2018), before narrowing to its current level.

2. Geographical Concentration: A Market Dominated by a Shrinking Circle of Suppliers

China dominates EU combed wool imports, but its share has shifted

China has remained the EU's largest supplier of combed wool throughout the period, accounting for €124.4 million in 2025 — down 19.4% from €154.4 million in 2015. China's share of total imports thus remained significant but fluctuated, peaking at €227.9 million at some point during the decade. The other major suppliers are Argentina (€52.5 million, +29.5%) and Uruguay (€40.5 million, +6.0%), which together reflect the Southern Cone's enduring role as a raw wool supplier.

(Source: Top Partners — Imports)

Brexit and changing sourcing strategies reshaped the supplier landscape

Among the most dramatic shifts is the collapse of imports from the United Kingdom (−80.8%), falling from €26.2 million to just €5.0 million. Given that the UK's departure from the EU customs union took full effect in January 2021, this decline — which appears to have accelerated from around 2019 onwards — is consistent with the introduction of customs formalities and rules-of-origin requirements that made UK-EU wool trade more cumbersome. India (−88.1%) and Chile (−100.0%) also virtually disappeared as suppliers, suggesting a consolidation of sourcing around fewer, larger origins.

Import and export concentration have both increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 2,405 to 3,190 (+32.6%), while the HHI for exports increased from 2,041 to 2,454 (+20.2%). Both values indicate a moderately to highly concentrated market. On the export side, Türkiye remains the dominant destination at €16.4 million (−22.6%), followed by the UK (€5.0 million) and Peru (€6.3 million, +79.5%). Notably, exports to India surged from €54,000 to €1.2 million (+2,217.6%), a small absolute number but a striking relative increase that may reflect India's growing role as a re-processing hub.

3. Growing Vulnerability and the Regional Reconfiguration of EU Wool Trade

The EU's net import reliance has more than doubled

Perhaps the most consequential structural shift is the doubling of the EU's net import reliance, which rose from 31.5% in 2015 to 66.7% in 2025 (+111.6%). At its peak, this figure reached 81.6%. This means that the EU now depends on external suppliers for two-thirds of its combed wool needs, compared to less than one-third a decade ago — a direct consequence of the production collapse documented in Section 1. Trade intensity also rose from 61.3% to 79.8%, confirming that this product category has become more deeply embedded in international supply chains relative to EU GDP.

Within the EU, specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Member States

RCA analysis for 2025 reveals that combed wool production and trade are highly unevenly distributed across the EU. Bulgaria (RCA = 11.3), Czechia (RCA = 5.6), and Italy (RCA = 3.7) show strong revealed comparative advantages, reflecting their established textile sectors. Italy alone accounts for 29.5% of EU production value and is the largest EU importer at €120.7 million. Germany follows at €88.2 million. By contrast, countries such as Sweden, Austria, and the Netherlands show no specialisation whatsoever (RCA ≈ 0), yet the Netherlands' large total trade share (14.5%) suggests a significant re-export or logistics hub role rather than domestic processing.

Price shocks remain limited but supply volatility is elevated for certain origins

The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade values varies widely across partners. Major suppliers like China (CV = 0.16) and Argentina (CV = 0.20) show relatively stable trade flows, providing a degree of predictability. However, smaller suppliers exhibit much higher volatility: South Africa (CV = 1.46), Peru (CV = 1.40), and Chile (CV = 0.62) all show erratic trade patterns. A handful of isolated price shocks were detected — notably in Iceland (2018) and Mongolia (2021) — but these involved negligible trade shares and are unlikely to have had systemic effects on the broader market.

Conclusion

The EU's combed wool market (CN 510529) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has collapsed by over 80%, driving a structural increase in import dependency from 31.5% to 66.7%. While total trade volumes have declined — reflecting both the contraction of EU textile manufacturing and global shifts in wool processing — the market has simultaneously become more concentrated in its sourcing: fewer suppliers, led by China, account for a growing share of imports.

The implications for EU trade policy and supply-chain resilience are significant. With production now concentrated in a small number of Member States (Italy, Czechia, Bulgaria) and raw material supply increasingly dependent on a handful of non-EU origins, the sector is more exposed to external disruptions than it was a decade ago. The sharp decline in UK-origin imports following Brexit illustrates how regulatory changes can rapidly reshape trade flows in this commodity. Looking ahead, the continued erosion of EU processing capacity — unless reversed by policy intervention or reshoring incentives — is likely to further deepen the bloc's reliance on imported combed wool.