Market evolution: Colour picture tubes (CN 854011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of colour cathode-ray television picture tubes (CN 854011) involving the European Union over the period 2015–2025. Once the backbone of the global television and monitor industry, CRT technology has been almost entirely displaced by flat-panel displays (LCD, OLED, and derivatives). The data reviewed here captures what is essentially the final phase of a mature-to-obsolete product category: a story of collapsing volumes, dramatic price restructuring, the disappearance of mass-scale production within the EU, and the emergence of residual niche trade serving replacement, industrial, or collector markets. The analysis draws on trade volumes and values, partner-level breakdowns, concentration and production data, volatility metrics, and vulnerability indicators provided by the Trade Dashboard.

1. The Great Disappearance: EU Production and Trade Volumes in Freefall

The most striking feature of the data is the sheer scale of decline across virtually every volumetric indicator. Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's domestic production of colour CRT picture tubes collapsed from 25,799,576 units to just 167,812 — a decline of 99.3%. Production value fell from €2,270,735,924 to €371,583,000 (−83.6%), implying that the few remaining tubes are far more valuable per unit — a hallmark of niche, specialty production rather than mass-market television manufacturing.

1.1 Import and export quantities have fallen to near-zero

Both sides of the EU's external trade in CRTs experienced dramatic volume contractions:

Sources: trade overview

By mass, EU imports have nearly vanished — from roughly 45 tonnes per year to just over 1 tonne. Export tonnage followed a similar trajectory, dropping from 59 tonnes to 3 tonnes.

1.2 The EU's net export surplus has narrowed but persists

Throughout the period, the EU remained a net exporter of colour CRT tubes by value, though its surplus shrank considerably. Net import reliance stood at −19.3% in 2015 and narrowed to −8.6% in 2025 (with values fluctuating between −111.4% and +9.2% over the full period). The trade balance moved from a deficit of −€1,868,663 in 2015 to −€207,076 in 2025, an improvement of 88.9%. This suggests that, while the EU's CRT trade is vanishing on both sides, it has managed to reduce its import dependency faster than it has lost export capacity — at least in value terms.

1.3 Trade intensity and export propensity both halved

The EU's trade intensity (the combined share of exports and imports relative to production) fell from 56.6% to 31.6% (−44.2%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) declined from 44.4% to 21.9% (−50.5%). The export propensity indicator carries the highest salience score (78.6), confirming that the erosion of the EU's ability to sell CRTs abroad is the single most important dynamic in this market's transformation. The product has effectively exited the realm of internationally traded industrial goods.

2. Shifting Geographies: The Rearrangement of Trade Partners and EU Member States

As the total market shrank, the geography of trade was reshaped. Former dominant suppliers and customers retreated, while a handful of smaller partners assumed disproportionate (if still modest) roles.

2.1 Singapore's collapse and the diversification of EU import sources

In 2015, Singapore was by far the EU's largest source of CRT imports at €2,050,531, likely reflecting residual production or warehoused stock from the region's once-sizable CRT manufacturing base. By 2025, imports from Singapore had fallen to €228,072 (−88.9%). The United Kingdom, another significant supplier at €204,222 in 2015, saw its exports to the EU collapse to just €7,701 (−96.2%) — a decline that was likely accelerated by Brexit-related trade frictions layered on top of the structural market decline.

Source: top import partners

Two partners stand out for bucking the trend: China (+244.0%) and the United Arab Emirates (+442.7%). China's share grew modestly in absolute terms (from €6,853 to €23,574), consistent with China's role as the last major global producer of CRT components. The UAE's rise (from €1,264 to €6,860) may reflect re-export or transit trade rather than end-use demand.

As a result of these shifts, import concentration (HHI) fell from 6,577 to 4,078 (−38.0%), indicating that the EU's tiny remaining import base is more geographically diversified than it was at the start of the period — a diversification born less of strategy than of the scattering of residual suppliers.

2.2 Export markets have become more concentrated and smaller

On the export side, the picture is more fragmented. Pakistan stands out as a growth destination (from €55,000 to €136,000, +147.3%), possibly reflecting demand for replacement tubes in markets where older television infrastructure persists. The Russian Federation showed moderate resilience (from €10,510 to €8,605, −18.1%), while Chile registered extraordinary percentage growth (+1,395.8%) from a negligible base.

Source: top export partners

Export concentration (HHI) rose from 1,004 to 1,654 (+64.8%), meaning that as overall export volumes shrank, an increasing share of the residual flows was directed toward fewer, more specialised destinations.

2.3 Germany and Italy diverge within the EU

Among EU member states, Germany dominated both imports and exports at the start of the period, reflecting its industrial scale. By 2025, Germany's imports had fallen 88.0% (from €2,066,618 to €247,149) and its exports 65.3% (to €1,927 from a peak of €2,285,288 in an intermediate year). Ireland and Czechia saw even steeper collapses in both directions — Ireland's imports fell 99.2% and its exports 99.6%.

Italy is the notable exception. Its exports actually increased over the period, from €61,564 to €81,411 (+32.2%). Italy also holds the second-highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA = 4.88) and a strong specialisation score (RSCA = 0.66) among EU exporters, second only to Estonia (RSCA = 0.93). This points to Italy retaining a small but viable niche in CRT-related production — possibly serving the collector market, industrial replacement, or specialty display applications.

3. Residual Niches: Price Spikes, Lightweight Tubes, and the Long Tail of a Vanishing Trade

Even as the market evaporated, the data reveals a set of intriguing price dynamics, unit-level shifts, and one-off trade events that illuminate what the CRT trade has become in its twilight years.

3.1 A striking divergence: unit counts rise as tonnage collapses on the import side

One of the most revealing patterns in the data is the divergence between mass-based and unit-based import quantities. While imports by weight fell 97.4%, imports by number of items rose 170.5%:

This implies that the average mass of an imported CRT tube fell from roughly 7.2 kg (consistent with a small-to-medium television tube) to approximately 70 grams — a 99% reduction. The remaining imports are extremely lightweight, suggesting that the EU now imports predominantly very small cathode-ray tubes, likely for niche applications such as oscilloscopes, test equipment, scientific instruments, or miniature displays rather than consumer television sets.

3.2 Prices per unit have inverted: cheap imports, expensive exports

The same dynamic is visible in per-unit pricing:

Source: trade overview

In 2025, the EU imports CRTs at just €23 per unit but exports them at €56 per unit — and the per-tonne import price of €307,418 dwarfs the export price of €58,792. This confirms that the remaining import flows are dominated by very small, lightweight, and (in aggregate tonnage) expensive tubes — a product profile consistent with specialty or scientific CRTs that command high per-kilogram prices but low per-unit costs due to their tiny size.

3.3 Extreme price volatility and one-off export shocks

Given the tiny volumes involved, individual shipments can dominate annual trade flows, creating extreme price volatility. The coefficient of variation (CV) exceeds 2.0 for several key partners — including China (CV = 2.45), Hong Kong (CV = 2.49), and Chile (CV = 2.45) on the export side.

Three notable price shock events were detected:

The Chilean shock in 2020 is the most dramatic: a single year saw export unit prices to Chile jump by over 3,400%, with that destination alone accounting for nearly a third of the EU's total export value that year. Such spikes are consistent with one-off shipments of high-value or large-volume lots — possibly an estate liquidation of vintage equipment, a bulk order for legacy infrastructure, or a collector transaction — rather than any sustained commercial pattern.

3.4 A handful of specialised producers sustain the final chapter

The EU's specialisation data for 2025 shows that CRT production has retreated to a few niche producers. Estonia leads in relative specialisation (RSCA = 0.93), though its share of total EU production is small (9.4%). Italy accounts for the largest production share (39.1%) with strong specialisation (RSCA = 0.66), while the Netherlands holds 31.5% of production with moderate specialisation (RSCA = 0.37). By contrast, Germany — the EU's largest economy — registers an RSCA of −0.93, confirming its near-complete exit from CRT manufacturing. The remaining production, valued at €371.6 million in 2025 but amounting to only 167,812 units, is likely concentrated in specialty tubes for industrial, military, medical, or retro-technology applications.

Conclusion

The EU trade in colour cathode-ray television picture tubes (CN 854011) over 2015–2025 tells the story of a technology in its final commercial phase. Domestic production fell by 99.3% in volume, trade quantities on both the import and export sides declined by 94–97% by mass, and the once-significant import reliance on Asian suppliers (particularly Singapore) has largely dissolved. What remains is a residual niche market: the EU now imports very small, lightweight CRTs — likely for scientific or specialty use — while its few remaining producers (notably in Italy and the Netherlands) export higher-value units to scattered destinations.

The data is punctuated by extreme volatility and isolated price shocks, which are artefacts of tiny trade volumes where a single shipment can dominate an annual total. The geographic concentration of imports has decreased (as no single supplier can command a large share of an already tiny market), while the concentration of exports has increased (as flows consolidate toward a handful of destinations). The EU's net export position, while still negative (i.e., the EU is a net exporter), has narrowed considerably.

In sum, CN 854011 is transitioning from a traded industrial commodity to a collector's curiosity and a niche industrial component. The era of colour cathode-ray tubes as a meaningful element of EU trade is effectively over.