Market evolution: Color television sets (CN 852872) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in color television reception apparatus (customs code 852872) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses a broad range of TV sets — from traditional cathode-ray tube and plasma displays to modern LCD screens and projection equipment — whether or not they incorporate recording or playback functionality. The analysis draws on Eurostat external trade data for the EU-27 trading with non-EU countries, covering values, volumes (in tonnes and supplementary unit counts), unit prices, partner concentration, and production volumes. As the data reveals, the decade under review was marked by a sustained contraction in trade volumes, a dramatic geographic reorientation of supply chains, and a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position from net importer to net exporter.
Overview of CN 852872 trade dynamics
A Decade of Contraction: Sustained Decline in Trade Volumes and Values
Total imports and exports fell by roughly one-third over the period
Between 2015 and 2025, both the value and volume of EU external trade in color TV sets contracted substantially. Import values declined from €1.33 billion to €856 million (−35.5%), while export values fell from €2.93 billion to €1.90 billion (−35.3%). In tonnage terms, imports shrank from 62,211 tonnes to 45,807 tonnes (−26.4%), and exports from 106,948 tonnes to 80,417 tonnes (−24.8%). The supplementary unit count — measuring the number of individual items — confirms this downward trajectory: imports of items dropped from 8.46 million to 6.92 million (−18.3%), while exports fell more sharply from 9.17 million to 5.93 million units (−35.3%).
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports — value (€ bn) | 1.33 | 0.86 | −35.5% |
| Imports — tonnage (kt) | 62.2 | 45.8 | −26.4% |
| Imports — items (m units) | 8.46 | 6.92 | −18.3% |
| Exports — value (€ bn) | 2.93 | 1.90 | −35.3% |
| Exports — tonnage (kt) | 106.9 | 80.4 | −24.8% |
| Exports — items (m units) | 9.17 | 5.93 | −35.3% |
Unit prices declined, reflecting both technology shifts and market saturation
Average import prices per tonne fell from €21,335 to €18,695 (−12.4%), while the per-item import price dropped more steeply from €157 to €124 (−21.1%). This divergence suggests that the average imported TV set became lighter over time — consistent with the ongoing transition toward thinner, lighter flat-panel designs — while the per-unit price decline points to broader deflationary pressure in consumer electronics, increased competition, and a shift toward more affordable product segments. Export prices showed a similar pattern: the per-tonne export price fell from €27,418 to €23,595 (−13.9%), but the per-item export price remained essentially flat at approximately €320, indicating that EU-based exporters increasingly focused on higher-value products.
EU domestic production expanded even as external trade contracted
A striking counterpoint to the trade decline is the growth in EU-reported production. Production volumes rose from 19.2 million items in 2015 to 25.7 million items in 2025 (+34.1%), and production values increased from €5.06 billion to €7.80 billion (+54.2%). This suggests that a significant share of EU demand is now met by intra-EU production rather than imports, or that EU manufacturers are increasingly orienting output toward export markets. The growth in production value outpacing volume growth (+54.2% vs. +34.1%) implies a shift toward higher-value product segments such as larger-screen or premium smart TVs.
Geographic Reorientation: From Türkiye to Asia, and the Impact of Brexit
Türkiye was the dominant import source but saw the steepest decline
In 2015, Türkiye was by far the EU's largest supplier of color TV sets outside the bloc, accounting for €794 million in imports — nearly 60% of total import value. By 2025, Turkish imports had collapsed to €326 million (−59.0%). The decline was persistent throughout the period, reflecting both the contraction in overall demand and a shift in global sourcing patterns. Despite this decline, Türkiye remained the single largest import partner by value in 2025, though its dominance was greatly diminished.
China and Viet Nam emerged as the principal Asian suppliers
China's import value grew modestly from €259 million to €304 million (+17.6%), making it the second-largest supplier. More dramatically, Viet Nam went from virtually zero imports in 2015 (€1,435) to €168 million in 2025 — an extraordinary expansion that reflects the broader "China Plus One" strategy adopted by many electronics manufacturers seeking to diversify supply chains away from China. Meanwhile, imports from the Republic of Korea and Hong Kong collapsed (−94.5% and −95.1% respectively), indicating that Korean brands increasingly route their production through other Asian countries.
| Import Partner | 2015 (€ m) | 2025 (€ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 794 | 326 | −59.0% |
| China | 259 | 304 | +17.6% |
| United Kingdom | 138 | 23 | −83.6% |
| Viet Nam | 0 | 168 | n/a |
| Republic of Korea | 92 | 5 | −94.5% |
| Hong Kong | 12 | 0.6 | −95.1% |
| Norway | 9 | 6 | −34.3% |
The United Kingdom's post-Brexit trade collapse reshaped both import and export flows
The UK's exit from the EU single market had a dramatic effect on trade in this product category. EU imports from the UK fell from €138 million to just €23 million (−83.6%), while EU exports to the UK — the EU's single largest export destination — declined from €1.58 billion to €969 million (−38.8%). Despite this decline, the UK remained the dominant export market by a wide margin, absorbing roughly half of all EU external exports. The UK trade collapse was likely driven by new customs procedures, regulatory divergence, and the re-routing of supply chains post-Brexit.
Export destinations shifted toward Eastern Europe and the Middle East
Beyond the UK, EU export patterns showed notable shifts. Exports to Türkiye fell sharply from €400 million to €121 million (−69.9%), while exports to Ukraine nearly tripled from €26 million to €78 million (+198.9%), and exports to Israel grew from €20 million to €57 million (+181.5%). Exports to Norway — a member of the European Economic Area — remained relatively stable, declining only slightly from €183 million to €200 million (+9.5%). These shifts suggest that EU exporters compensated partly for the UK decline by developing new markets, though not at sufficient scale to offset the overall contraction.
| Export Partner | 2015 (€ m) | 2025 (€ m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 1,584 | 969 | −38.8% |
| Switzerland | 312 | 218 | −30.2% |
| Türkiye | 400 | 121 | −69.9% |
| Norway | 183 | 200 | +9.5% |
| Israel | 20 | 57 | +181.5% |
| Ukraine | 26 | 78 | +198.9% |
| Morocco | 80 | 23 | −71.2% |
Partner concentration declined, indicating diversification
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 4,115 to 3,115 (−24.3%), while export concentration declined from 3,290 to 2,950 (−10.3%). While these levels still indicate moderate-to-high concentration, the downward trend reflects the geographic diversification described above — particularly the rise of Viet Nam as an import source and the development of new export markets to compensate for declining UK trade.
From Net Importer to Net Exporter: The EU's Evolving Trade Position
The EU reversed its net import reliance over the decade
One of the most significant structural shifts in this market was the reversal of the EU's trade position. In 2015, the EU had a positive net import reliance of 14.1%, meaning that imports exceeded what would be expected given domestic production and consumption patterns. By 2025, this figure had turned negative at −6.7%, indicating that the EU had become a net exporter. The trade balance itself remained positive throughout (€1.61 billion in 2015, €1.04 billion in 2025), but the net import reliance metric captures the structural shift more precisely. This transformation was driven by the combination of rising domestic production and declining imports.
Export propensity increased as EU producers looked outward
The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 24.8% in 2015 to 28.3% in 2025 (+14.1%). This metric registered the highest salience score (35.8) among vulnerability indicators, underscoring its importance as a trend. Meanwhile, trade intensity (the combined share of imports and exports relative to the total market) declined from 46.8% to 41.3% (−11.8%), reflecting the fact that while exports grew as a share of production, the overall market became less reliant on external trade.
Central European member states dominate production and export specialization
The EU's export strength in this category is concentrated in Central Europe. In 2025, Slovakia held the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA: 0.85), followed by Latvia (0.70), Hungary (0.69), Poland (0.68), and Slovenia (0.67). Slovakia alone accounted for 26.0% of EU production in this category and was the top exporting member state with €596 million in exports. Poland contributed 35.3% of production and exported €590 million. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Ireland, Finland, and Italy showed no specialization in this product, with near-zero RSCA values.
The product mix shifted decisively away from legacy technologies
The sub-product breakdown reveals a dramatic technological transition. Within imports, LCD-screen TV sets (CN 85287240) remained the dominant category but saw tonnage fall from 38,127 tonnes to 21,921 tonnes (−42.5%), with per-tonne prices declining from €20,439 to €18,960. The catch-all category for other display types (CN 85287280), which now likely encompasses OLED and other advanced displays, remained relatively stable in tonnage (11,036 to 11,720 tonnes). Meanwhile, CRT-tube sets (CN 85287230) and plasma displays (CN 85287260) effectively vanished — plasma imports fell from 114 tonnes to just 60 tonnes, and CRT imports from 415 to 42 tonnes.
| Sub-product | Import tonnage 2015 | Import tonnage 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85287240 — LCD screen | 38,127 t | 21,921 t | −42.5% |
| 85287280 — Other displays | 11,036 t | 11,720 t | +6.2% |
| 85287220 — With video recorder | 12,261 t | 11,652 t | −5.0% |
| 85287210 — Projection equipment | 259 t | 407 t | +57.2% |
| 85287260 — Plasma display | 114 t | 60 t | −47.3% |
| 85287230 — CRT (integral tube) | 415 t | 42 t | −89.8% |
On the export side, a striking development was the surge in exports of TV sets incorporating video recorders (CN 85287220), which grew from 3,456 tonnes to 31,643 tonnes in tonnage (+816%) and from 379,502 to 1,873,325 items (+393%). This category, which might also capture smart TV platforms with integrated recording functionality, became the EU's second-largest export segment. Exports of the "other displays" category (CN 85287280) tripled from 3,060 to 9,384 tonnes (+207%), suggesting growing EU specialization in non-LCD display technologies.
Supply chain shocks in 2021 disrupted pricing across major partners
The year 2021 stands out as a period of acute price volatility. Import prices from China surged by 42.5% (abnormality score: 42.9), with Chinese imports accounting for 34.4% of import value. Prices from Türkiye rose by 37.6% (abnormality: 20.2), representing 65.6% of import value. On the export side, UK-bound prices rose 12.1% (abnormality: 2.4). These shocks are consistent with the global semiconductor shortage and logistics disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the entire electronics supply chain. The concentration of these shocks in a single year underscores the vulnerability of the EU's TV supply chain to external disruption.
Conclusion
The EU market for color television sets (CN 852872) underwent profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Total external trade contracted by roughly one-third in both value and volume terms, driven by a combination of market maturation, declining unit prices, and a shift toward domestic production. The geographic landscape was redrawn: Türkiye's dominance as an import source eroded sharply, while China maintained its position and Viet Nam emerged as a major new supplier — reflecting broader global supply chain diversification. Brexit dramatically reduced UK-EU trade flows in both directions, though the UK remained the EU's primary export destination. Perhaps most significantly, the EU transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter, buoyed by expanding production in Central European member states such as Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary. The product mix evolved away from legacy CRT and plasma technologies toward a market dominated by LCD screens, with growing EU specialization in alternative display technologies and integrated smart TV platforms. The 2021 price shocks served as a reminder of the sector's exposure to global supply chain disruptions. Looking ahead, the continued growth of EU production capacity and the ongoing geographic diversification of supply chains suggest that the EU's trade position in this sector may continue to strengthen, even as the overall market faces the structural challenges of maturation and technological convergence with other display devices.