Market evolution: Catalytic converters and particulate filters (CN 842132) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in catalytic converters and particulate filters for internal combustion engines (CN 842132) — a product category central to the automotive emissions-control value chain. These components, encompassing both catalytic converters and diesel particulate filters, have long been a significant EU export specialty, supported by a strong European automotive supplier base. Available trade data spans the years 2022 to 2025 (Overview).

Over this short but eventful window, three major dynamics emerge: the EU's role as a strong and growing net exporter is reinforced even as domestic production contracts; the geographic composition of both import sources and export destinations undergoes notable reshuffling; and falling unit prices across the board signal structural pressure on a product category whose core market — the internal combustion engine — faces an accelerating long-term decline under the EU's electrification agenda.

1. A resilient export surplus built on shrinking production

The EU maintains a large and stable trade surplus

The EU has consistently recorded a substantial trade surplus in CN 842132 over the 2022–2025 period. Exports stood at €1.50 billion in 2022 and edged up to €1.56 billion by 2025, a modest +3.6% increase in value. Imports grew somewhat faster, from €899 million to €965 million (+7.4%), yet the trade balance remained firmly positive at around €593–609 million throughout (General Overview).

The net import reliance indicator confirms this picture and even shows it deepening. In 2022, the ratio stood at −75.1%, and by 2025 it had fallen further to −178.7%, meaning the EU's export-to-domestic-absorption ratio nearly doubled (Net import reliance). In parallel, export propensity rose from 107.1% to 168.9% (+57.7%), indicating that EU production is increasingly oriented towards foreign markets (Export propensity).

Yet domestic production is contracting

Paradoxically, EU production of catalytic converters and particulate filters has declined meaningfully over the same period. Output fell from an estimated 6,000,000 tonnes to 5,273,116 tonnes (−12.1%) in volume, and from €1.4 billion to €990 million (−29.3%) in value (Production volumes). The steeper decline in value relative to quantity points to the same price compression visible in the trade statistics.

This combination — declining production alongside growing export volumes (+31.9% in tonnes) — suggests that the EU is increasingly importing semi-finished components or lower-value filter substrates for assembly and re-export, while retaining higher-value-added activities domestically. Germany alone accounts for 43.4% of EU production and 78.5% of EU extra-EU exports by value in 2025, underscoring the concentration of this industry within one Member State (Specialisation).

Germany anchors the EU's export position

Germany exported €1.22 billion worth of CN 842132 products extra-EU in 2025, virtually unchanged from 2022 (€1.23 billion). No other Member State comes close: Italy, the second-largest exporter, exported only €61 million in 2025, down sharply from €120 million in 2022 (−48.9%). Czechia (+165.7%), France (+383.0%), and Portugal (+89.8%) showed strong growth from smaller bases, indicating some diversification of EU export capacity across Central and Western Europe (Top reporters by value).

2. A rapidly shifting geographic landscape

Import sources: from South African dominance to Western Balkan emergence

The most striking shift in the import picture is the erosion of South Africa's position and the dramatic rise of North Macedonia. In 2022, South Africa supplied €716 million of EU imports (nearly 80% of the total). By 2025, this had fallen to €477 million (−33.3%), though South Africa remains the single largest supplier. North Macedonia, by contrast, went from a negligible €8,000 in 2022 to €217 million in 2025 — an extraordinary increase that places it as the third-largest import source. This shift likely reflects the expansion or establishment of major catalytic converter manufacturing capacity in North Macedonia, potentially by a European automotive supplier taking advantage of lower labour costs and proximity to the EU single market (Top partners by value — imports).

Import concentration has fallen sharply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 6,469 to 3,054 (−52.8%) between 2022 and 2025 (Concentration). This represents a shift from a highly concentrated to a moderately concentrated import structure. The driver is primarily the diversification away from South Africa's overwhelming share, as new suppliers — North Macedonia, the UK (post-Brexit), Türkiye, and others — gain ground. This diversification reduces the EU's exposure to supply disruptions from any single country, though it introduces new dependencies (notably on North Macedonia, whose export flows show high volatility with a coefficient of variation of 0.83).

Export destinations: Türkiye and China gain, the United States recede

On the export side, the EU's top three destinations in 2025 were Türkiye (€337 million, +6.2%), the United States (€296 million, −27.5%), and China (€292 million, +45.2%). The most notable trend is the decline in US-bound exports and the rise of China as an increasingly important market. This is consistent with China's continued large fleet of ICE vehicles and tightening emissions standards requiring aftertreatment upgrades, even as its domestic EV share grows rapidly. The UK, now an extra-EU partner post-Brexit, absorbed €200 million in EU exports in 2025 (+20.6%) (Top partners by value — exports).

Export concentration remained much lower than import concentration (HHI of 1,415 in 2025) and relatively stable (−9.7%), reflecting the EU's long-standing pattern of exporting to a broad set of global automotive markets.

Volatility highlights emerging risks

The volatility analysis reveals that some new or smaller trade relationships carry significant instability. Indian import flows into the EU show a coefficient of variation of 1.82, and Serbian imports of 1.62, indicating highly erratic volumes. On the export side, India stands out as the most stable partner (CV of 0.06), while Morocco (CV 0.38) and Mexico (CV 0.38) show more variable demand (Volatility).

3. Falling prices and the structural headwind of electrification

Unit values are declining across both imports and exports

Perhaps the most consequential trend in the data is the broad-based erosion of unit prices. Export unit values fell from €63,271 per tonne in 2022 to €49,701 per tonne in 2025 (−21.4%). Import prices fell even more steeply, from €72,545 per tonne to €52,745 per tonne (−27.3%). Crucially, these declines occurred while volumes were rising significantly — export volumes grew +31.9% and import volumes +47.7% — meaning that the price drops are not simply a compositional effect but reflect genuine unit-value compression (General Overview).

The ICE phase-out creates a known endgame

Catalytic converters and particulate filters exist solely to serve internal combustion engines. The EU's regulatory trajectory — culminating in the effective ban on new ICE car sales from 2035 — guarantees a shrinking addressable market over the medium to long term. The falling unit values observed in 2022–2025 may already reflect this anticipation: manufacturers are competing harder for a declining pool of orders, and OEMs are exerting downward pricing pressure on a supply chain with diminishing future demand. The 29.3% drop in EU production value over a period when volumes fell only 12.1% is particularly telling.

The EU's export-oriented strategy may be time-limited

The EU's deepening net-exporter status and rising export propensity (from 107% to 169%) suggest that European producers are increasingly looking abroad to compensate for shrinking domestic demand. Many non-EU markets — including large emerging economies in Asia, Latin America, and Africa — will continue to operate substantial ICE fleets well beyond 2035. However, the sustainability of this strategy depends on how quickly these markets also transition to electrified powertrains and on whether lower-cost producers (e.g., in China or North Macedonia) capture market share. China's rapid expansion in catalytic converter manufacturing for its own market and for export could erode the EU's competitive position over time.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in catalytic converters and particulate filters (CN 842132) over 2022–2025 reveals an industry in structural transition. The EU remains a powerful net exporter with a trade surplus of nearly €600 million, anchored by Germany's dominant position. However, several dynamics point to a market under pressure:

• Domestic production is contracting in both volume (−12.1%) and especially value (−29.3%), even as export volumes grow — suggesting a shift toward assembly and re-export of imported components.
• The import landscape is being reshaped: South Africa's near-monopoly is giving way to a more diversified supplier base, with North Macedonia emerging as a major new source. Import concentration (HHI) has halved, reducing single-source risk but introducing new, more volatile supply relationships.
• Unit prices are falling steeply on both the import and export sides, consistent with intensifying competition and the anticipated long-term decline in demand as the EU accelerates its transition away from internal combustion engines.

In sum, the data paints the picture of a mature industry that remains commercially significant but faces an increasingly constrained future. EU producers' ability to extend their export window into non-EU markets, while managing the transition of their own product portfolios towards electrification-compatible technologies, will be the central challenge of the years ahead.