Market evolution: Cashmere sweaters (CN 61101210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the EU's trade in men's and boys' cashmere knitwear (CN 61101210) from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a dynamic market where the European Union has significantly strengthened its position as a net exporter, driven by substantial price appreciation and strategic shifts in production and sourcing. Over the decade, the EU's trade balance in this premium product category has more than doubled, pointing to a resilient and evolving competitive advantage in high-value segments.

1. The EU's Strategic Shift to a High-Value Net Exporter

The most striking trend over the period is the EU's transformation into a dominant net exporter of cashmere knitwear, a position achieved through dramatic price increases that outpaced changes in physical volumes.

Export Value Surges While Volumes Stagnate

EU export value grew by 53.0% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €114.9 million to €175.8 million. However, this growth was not driven by selling more items. Export quantity (in tonnes) actually fell slightly by 3.1%, and the supplementary unit count (individual pieces) decreased by a similar margin. This indicates the surge in value was almost entirely due to rising prices. The average price per tonne for exports increased by 57.8% to over €507,000, and the price per item rose by 57.9% to nearly €227.

Import Growth Fueled by Volume and Diversification

EU imports also grew robustly, with value increasing by 64.0% to €96.1 million. Unlike exports, this growth incorporated a significant volume increase, with imported quantity rising by 34.6% to 657 tonnes. The average import price per tonne grew more modestly at 21.7%. This pattern suggests increasing consumer demand within the EU was met by expanding imports from a diversified supplier base.

A Substantial and Growing Trade Surplus

The EU's trade balance in this product category remained firmly positive throughout the period and expanded significantly. The surplus grew by 41.5%, from €56.3 million in 2015 to €79.7 million in 2025. The net import reliance metric swung from a slight positive (import reliance) in 2015 to a strong negative (-27.0%) in 2025, confirming the EU's role as a consistent net exporter.

2. Diversification of Trade Partners and Shifting Supply Chains

The geographic composition of EU trade underwent significant restructuring, characterized by the rise of new manufacturing hubs and a reduction in market concentration.

Italy Remains the Export Epicenter, While New Export Destinations Emerge

Italy is the EU's unequivocal powerhouse for exports, accounting for €128.8 million in 2025 (a 30.7% increase from 2015). The United States remained the top non-EU destination for EU exports, though its share declined. The most dramatic growth was seen in exports to China, which surged by 399.2% to become a major market, and to Switzerland, which grew by 75.5%.

Import Sources Diversify Away from China

While China remained the largest single source of imports (€32.4 million in 2025, +21.1%), its dominance decreased. The most explosive growth came from emerging suppliers: imports from Cambodia and Tunisia increased by over 1,700% each, and shipments from Myanmar became significant. This diversification is also reflected in the declining Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration, which fell by 32.5%.

The Netherlands Emerges as a Key Import Hub

Notably, imports into the Netherlands grew by 361.6%, suggesting its role as a major gateway for goods entering the EU market. France, while still a significant importer, saw its import value decline by 25.8%.

3. Production Restructuring and Increased Market Efficiency

Underlying the trade flows is a profound restructuring of EU domestic production, which has shifted towards lower-volume, higher-value output, contributing to a more efficient and specialized market.

EU Production Plummets in Volume but Not Value

EU production volume (in items) collapsed by 88.2%, from 96.9 million pieces in 2015 to just 11.4 million in 2025. However, the decline in production value was less severe at -65.9%, ending at €420 million. This disconnect indicates a strategic pivot away from mass-market manufacturing towards higher-margin, likely artisanal or branded, segments.

Specialization Confirms Italy's Luxury Focus

Analysis of specialization shows Italy has a very high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.709, confirming its entrenched strength. Conversely, countries like Croatia show an extremely high RSCA (0.911) but a tiny production share, indicating niche specialization.

Concentration and Volatility Signal a Mature Market

The HHI for exports fell sharply by 45.6%, indicating a more diversified destination base for EU goods. While some supplier relationships show high volatility (e.g., Myanmar, Viet Nam), key partners like China exhibit low volatility (CV of 0.14), providing a stable import backbone. Detected price shocks, such as the 185.1% price spike from Tunisia in 2017, highlight specific supply chain risks but did not destabilize the overall positive trade trend.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU market for men's and boys' cashmere knitwear has fundamentally evolved. The bloc has solidified its role as a high-value net exporter, leveraging significant price appreciation to grow its trade surplus despite flat or declining export volumes. This is underpinned by a strategic restructuring of production towards higher-value segments and a diversification of import sources, reducing reliance on any single supplier. The market shows increased efficiency, with specialization intensifying (e.g., Italy) and trade flows becoming less concentrated. While supply chain volatility exists in emerging partner countries, the overall data points to a resilient and premium-oriented EU cashmere industry that has successfully navigated the decade by focusing on value over volume.