Market evolution: Carbonless copy paper (CN 481690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in copying or transfer papers (excluding self-copy paper) classified under customs code CN 481690 over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers carbon paper, transfer papers, and offset plates of paper in small-format rolls or sheets. This is a residual heading within the broader CN 4816 group, excluding self-copy paper (CN 481620), and corresponds to Prodcom code 17.23.11.00. Over the decade under review, the EU market for this product underwent a profound structural transformation: exports collapsed while domestic production expanded, the trade balance swung from a comfortable surplus into deficit, and the geographic orientation of both imports and exports shifted markedly. The three sections below unpack these dynamics in turn.

A Decade of Export Collapse and the Swing to Trade Deficit

EU export volumes fell by over 90%

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic decline in EU exports. Export quantity fell from 9,879 tonnes in 2015 to just 818 tonnes in 2025, a contraction of -91.7%. In value terms, exports dropped from €15.1 million to €4.6 million (-69.3%). The less severe value decline relative to quantity implies that unit export prices rose sharply — from €1,525/t to €5,650/t (+270.5%) — suggesting that the EU's residual exports increasingly serve niche, higher-value segments rather than bulk markets.

Imports grew moderately while the trade balance reversed

Over the same period, EU imports grew from €5.5 million to €7.3 million (+32.0%) in value, and from 1,042 tonnes to 1,818 tonnes (+74.4%) in volume. Import prices, however, declined from €5,287/t to €4,001/t (-24.3%), indicating that import growth has been price-competitive. The combined effect of falling exports and rising imports flipped the EU's trade balance from a surplus of +€9.6 million in 2015 to a deficit of -€2.6 million in 2025.

The EU's net import reliance improved despite the trade deficit

Paradoxically, while the trade balance turned negative, the EU's net import reliance shifted from -30.8% to -10.2% — meaning the EU became less of a net exporter relative to domestic production. This is consistent with the domestic production expansion discussed below: the EU has been producing more but directing output inward rather than abroad. Trade intensity fell from 151% to 33%, and export propensity collapsed from 185% to 23%, both indicating a sharp decoupling of the EU market from international trade flows.

The Reorientation of Trade Partners

China emerged as the dominant import source

Among import partners, China's share surged dramatically. Chinese exports to the EU rose from €438K in 2015 to €4.2 million in 2025 (+857.5%), making China by far the largest extra-EU supplier. At its peak, Chinese shipments reached over €5.1 million. Meanwhile, US exports to the EU collapsed from €2.3 million to €348K (-84.8%). Other notable suppliers include Japan (stable at ~€920K), the United Kingdom (growing from €257K to €629K, +145%), and Türkiye (rising from €279K to €515K, +84.7%).

Traditional export markets evaporated

The EU's export destinations experienced even more dramatic declines. The United States — the single largest market in 2015 at €5.2 million — fell to just €107K (-98.0%). The United Kingdom dropped from €3.2 million to €126K (-96.0%). North African markets (Morocco, Egypt, Algeria) also contracted significantly, with declines ranging from -63% to -89%. The only market showing modest growth was Cabo Verde (+20.6%), a very small destination.

Import concentration intensified while export markets fragmented

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,472 to 3,698 (+49.6%), reflecting the growing dominance of China as a supplier. By contrast, the export HHI fell from 1,775 to 474 (-73.3%), but this is largely an artefact of the collapse in total export volumes: with so little left to export, the remaining shipments are dispersed thinly across many small destinations rather than concentrated in a few large ones.

Domestic Production Expansion Amid a Structurally Declining Market

EU production volumes tripled despite falling international demand

The most counterintuitive finding in the data concerns EU production. Production quantity increased from 16.1 million kg to 50.0 million kg (+209.7%), while production value rose from €32.1 million to €102.0 million (+218.1%). This expansion occurred even as exports collapsed, implying that the EU's domestic market for these products — while shrinking in international trade terms — absorbed significantly more output over the decade. One possible explanation is that EU producers have reoriented toward the internal market, benefiting from proximity advantages and possibly from supply-chain disruptions affecting non-EU competitors during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Production specialisation is concentrated in a handful of EU members

In 2025, production specialisation in CN 481690 was highly uneven across EU Member States. Czechia (RSCA: 0.61, RCA: 4.18) and France (RSCA: 0.46, RCA: 2.67) are the most specialised producers, together accounting for over 40% of EU production volume. By contrast, countries such as Ireland, Estonia, Bulgaria, Austria, and Portugal show essentially no specialisation in this product.

Export volatility and isolated supply shocks

EU export volatility was highest in shipments to the United States (CV: 3.12), Argentina (CV: 3.31), and Serbia (CV: 2.98), reflecting the sharp boom-and-bust pattern in these destinations. On the import side, Korea Republic (CV: 2.58) and Hong Kong (CV: 1.89) showed the most erratic supply patterns. The shock detection analysis identified notable price shocks in EU exports to Morocco (+639% in 2020, abnormality 75.9), Egypt (+484% in 2020, abnormality 12.8), and Angola (+248% in 2018, abnormality 24.8). These spikes are consistent with supply disruptions during the early COVID-19 period and possibly with currency or logistics shocks affecting African markets.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 481690 products underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most salient trend is the near-total withdrawal of the EU from international export markets: export volumes fell by over 90%, and traditional destinations in the US, UK, and North Africa were largely lost. Simultaneously, China consolidated its position as the dominant extra-EU supplier, growing its shipments to the EU by nearly 900%. Yet the domestic picture tells a different story: EU production tripled in volume and more than tripled in value, suggesting that producers successfully pivoted toward the internal market. The net result is a market that is far more self-contained than it was a decade ago — trade intensity and export propensity both fell by roughly 80% — but one that is also more dependent on China for its import needs. Going forward, the key vulnerability lies in the concentration of import supply: with China accounting for over half of extra-EU imports by value and the import HHI approaching 3,700, any disruption to Chinese production or trade flows could have outsized effects on the EU market.