Market evolution: Bulk medicaments (CN 300390) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in bulk medicaments classified under Combined Nomenclature code 300390 over the 2015–2025 period. This product heading covers multi-constituent medicaments for therapeutic or prophylactic uses that are not in measured doses or retail packaging, excluding specific active-principle categories (hormones, antibiotics, antimalarials, etc.). The code is residual in nature, capturing the broadest range of mixed bulk pharmaceutical preparations. Over the decade, the EU's trade in this product category underwent a dramatic structural transformation: export volumes fell by 66.6% while unit values more than doubled, the trade balance swung from near-parity to a €416 million surplus, and the geographic orientation of both imports and exports shifted markedly. These changes reflect a combination of post-Brexit trade reorientation, evolving global pharmaceutical supply chains, and a substantial expansion of EU domestic production.

The analysis draws on the overview dashboard and related data panels to identify and explain the main dynamics at play.

1. A Decade of Geographic Reorientation: The Collapse and Rebuilding of Trade Flows

The UK's disappearance as the EU's dominant export market

The single most consequential structural change in EU trade for CN 300390 is the near-total collapse of exports to the United Kingdom. In 2015, the UK absorbed €2,429 million in EU exports of bulk medicaments — representing roughly 73% of the EU's total extra-EU export value. By 2025, this figure had fallen to just €77 million, a decline of 96.8%. The UK went from being by far the largest destination to a marginal one, falling below the United States, Russia, and China. While Brexit — and particularly the end of frictionless intra-EU supply chains from January 2021 — is the most obvious driver, the decline began before 2020, suggesting that structural supply-chain reconfiguration was already underway.

Top export partners by value

New export destinations absorb redirected flows

The loss of the UK as a destination was offset — in value terms, if not in volume — by dramatic growth in exports to other markets:

The United States emerged as the EU's single largest export market by 2025, absorbing €1,100 million — a more than sixfold increase. China and Russia also saw explosive growth. This reorientation points to EU producers increasingly targeting high-value markets outside Europe, consistent with the shift towards higher unit-value products described below.

Import sources diversify, led by India and Switzerland

On the import side, the EU's sourcing also evolved substantially:

India's rise is particularly striking: from just €22 million in 2015 to €179 million in 2025, reflecting its role as a global hub for bulk pharmaceutical manufacturing. Switzerland's strong growth likely reflects the country's position as a major pharmaceutical intermediary and manufacturing base. Meanwhile, imports from the UK also declined — mirroring the export-side collapse — consistent with the disruption of previously seamless cross-Channel pharmaceutical supply chains.

Top import partners by value

2. The Volume–Value Divergence: Export Prices Double as Import Prices Collapse

Export volumes fell steeply while unit values surged

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export volumes in CN 300390 dropped from 36,254 tonnes to 12,121 tonnes — a fall of 66.6%. Yet over the same period, the average export unit value rose from €91,625 per tonne to €194,856 per tonne, an increase of 112.7%. In value terms, the decline was therefore only 28.9% (from €3,322 million to €2,362 million). This divergence strongly suggests that the composition of EU exports shifted towards higher-value, more specialised formulations, while lower-value bulk intermediates — many previously destined for the UK — exited the trade statistics.

Trade overview

Import volumes grew while unit values declined sharply

The mirror image is visible on the import side. Import volumes rose from 12,003 tonnes to 18,719 tonnes (+56.0%), while the average import price fell from €278,391 per tonne to €103,952 per tonne (−62.7%). Total import value consequently declined from €3,343 million to €1,946 million (−41.8%). The falling unit value of imports is consistent with a growing share of lower-cost sourcing from India and other emerging suppliers, and possibly with a shift in the type of bulk preparations being imported.

The trade balance swung from deficit to surplus

The combined effect of these opposing trends was a dramatic improvement in the EU's trade balance for CN 300390. Starting from a small deficit of €21 million in 2015, the balance deteriorated to a trough of −€814 million at its worst point before recovering to a surplus of €416 million by 2025. This represents a shift from a position of near-dependence to one of net exporter status in value terms, even as physical volumes moved in the opposite direction.

Net import reliance

Price shocks highlight the fragility of the new equilibrium

The volatility data reveals that EU export unit values are subject to significant price shocks, particularly with the United States. A major export price shock was detected in 2022 for the US flow, with a +234% price shift and an abnormality score of 85.9, accounting for 17.3% of export value that year. This likely reflects COVID-19 pandemic-era distortions in pharmaceutical demand and pricing, combined with the growing weight of high-value speciality products in the US-bound flow. A smaller but striking price shock was also detected for Korea-bound exports in 2017 (+826.1% shift).

Supply shock events

3. Shifting Concentration, Rising Domestic Capacity, and Member-State Specialisation

EU export concentration fell dramatically; import sourcing became slightly more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by partner country fell from 5,477 in 2015 to 2,455 in 2025 — a 55.2% decline. This reflects the transition from an export base overwhelmingly dominated by the UK to a much more diversified set of destination markets. On the import side, the HHI edged up from 3,262 to 3,832 (+17.5%), indicating a modest increase in concentration among non-EU suppliers, driven by the growing importance of the United States and Switzerland.

Concentration analysis

EU domestic production value expanded by over 300%

Production value for CN 300390 within the EU grew from €1,515 million to €6,421 million over the period — an increase of 323.8%. This is consistent with a broader trend of pharmaceutical reshoring and capacity expansion within the EU, driven by policy concerns about supply-chain resilience following COVID-19 and strategic autonomy objectives. The surge in production also helps explain how the EU was able to maintain and grow its export value despite the dramatic fall in physical export volumes: more of the higher-value production is now retained or directed towards premium export markets.

Production volumes

Portugal emerged as the EU's leading exporter, displacing traditional hubs

Among EU member states, the shift in export leadership is striking:

Portugal's transformation is the most dramatic: from €37 million in 2015 to €788 million in 2025, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.92 and an RCA of 24.5 — by far the highest in the EU. This suggests that Portugal has become a major production and export platform for bulk medicaments, possibly driven by significant FDI in pharmaceutical manufacturing.

EU member state specialisation

Belgium and Spain emerged as major importers; the Netherlands declined

On the import side, the Netherlands — previously the EU's largest importer of CN 300390 at €1,255 million — saw its share collapse to €202 million (−83.9%), likely reflecting the disruption of its role as a distribution gateway. Belgium surged from €13 million to €332 million (+2,468.9%), and Spain rose from €28 million to €161 million (+481.8%), suggesting a geographic redistribution of import entry points within the EU.

EU member state trade data

Trade intensity and export propensity both declined, signalling greater self-sufficiency

The EU's trade intensity ratio for CN 300390 fell from 81.9% to 56.2% (−31.3%), while export propensity declined from 75.5% to 39.8% (−47.3%). Both indicators point in the same direction: the EU's pharmaceutical sector has become more self-contained. The expansion of domestic production, combined with the decline in physical export volumes, suggests that a growing share of EU-manufactured bulk medicaments is now consumed within the EU or processed further domestically rather than being exported in bulk form.

Trade intensity and export propensity

Conclusion

The EU's trade in bulk medicaments (CN 300390) over 2015–2025 was reshaped by three interconnected forces: the post-Brexit collapse of the UK as the primary export destination, a fundamental shift in the value composition of trade flows, and a major expansion of EU domestic production capacity. The UK's share of EU exports fell from 73% to 3% in value terms, forcing a rapid diversification towards the US, China, and Russia. This reorientation coincided with — and likely accelerated — a move towards higher-value export products, as reflected in the doubling of export unit values and the halving of physical volumes. On the supply side, India and Switzerland emerged as increasingly important import sources, while the EU's own production value more than tripled. The net result is an EU pharmaceutical trade sector that is more geographically diversified in its exports, more self-sufficient in production, and oriented towards higher-value preparations — though the concentration of import sourcing and the sensitivity of export prices to individual-market shocks remain areas of potential vulnerability.