Market evolution: Brassieres (CN 62121090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in brassieres (customs code 62121090) over the period 2015–2025. The decade reveals a market undergoing a profound structural transformation: EU domestic production has collapsed, import dependency has surged, and the sourcing geography has shifted decisively away from China and towards South and Southeast Asia. At the same time, the EU's traditional export base has been reconfigured by the United Kingdom's exit from the Union. These dynamics have created a trade landscape that is simultaneously more diversified in its suppliers and more vulnerable to external shocks.

1. From Producer to Importer: The Collapse of EU Brassiere Manufacturing

EU production has contracted by over 80 % in volume

The most striking feature of the decade is the near-disappearance of EU-level brassiere production. Output fell from 225.7 million items (first period) to just 43.5 million items (last period), a decline of 80.7 %. In value terms, production dropped from €1.215 billion to €286 million (−76.5 %). This collapse outpaced even the decline in mass quantities, suggesting that the surviving production has shifted towards lower-value segments or that higher-value manufacturing has migrated offshore.

The trade deficit has widened despite modest import-value growth

Over the same period, EU imports grew from €1.494 billion to €1.597 billion (+6.9 %), while exports declined from €370 million to €356 million (−3.8 %). The resulting trade deficit widened from −€1.124 billion to −€1.240 billion (−10.4 %). Crucially, the volume picture diverges from the value picture: import quantities in tonnes rose by 17.2 % while their per-tonne price fell by 8.8 %, reflecting cheaper sourcing rather than growing domestic demand. Meanwhile, EU export unit values increased by 8.8 % per tonne, suggesting a shift in the remaining export basket towards higher-value or niche products.

Net import reliance has more than doubled

The net import reliance indicator rose from 32.6 % to 80.8 %, meaning that the vast majority of domestic consumption is now satisfied by imports. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) reached 124.5 %, implying that the EU now exports more brassiere items than it produces domestically — a pattern consistent with re-export and intra-firm processing arrangements, particularly through logistics hubs like the Netherlands and Belgium.

2. The Great Sourcing Shift: From China to South and Southeast Asia

China remains the top supplier but has lost significant share

China was the EU's dominant brassiere supplier throughout the period, but its share has eroded. Import values from China fell from €734 million to €590 million (−19.6 %), while total EU imports grew. China's decline in relative terms is the mirror image of the diversification strategy pursued — consciously or not — by European importers.

Bangladesh, Viet Nam, and Myanmar have emerged as the main beneficiaries

The most dynamic import partners have been:

Together, Bangladesh and Viet Nam now account for nearly €440 million in EU brassiere imports, approaching China's €590 million. This rapid growth reflects the well-documented "China + 1" sourcing strategy adopted by global apparel brands, which has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic and amid rising geopolitical tensions. Viet Nam's +209 % growth is particularly notable, likely driven by its favourable EU-Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA, effective August 2020) and competitive labour costs. Myanmar's +289 % growth from a low base, while remarkable, must be viewed cautiously in light of the country's political instability since 2021, which may reverse these gains.

The import supply base has become less concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,652 to 1,947 (−26.6 %), moving the market from a moderately concentrated structure towards a more competitive one. This confirms that the diversification away from China is not simply a shift towards one alternative but a genuine broadening of the supplier base. Import HHI by volume also declined from 3,274 to 2,843 (−13.2 %), reinforcing this finding.

Brexit has dramatically reshaped the EU's relationship with the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market has left a clear mark on trade flows. On the import side, EU purchases from the UK collapsed from €57.7 million to €15.1 million (−73.9 %), with a coefficient of variation of 1.25 — the highest volatility of any import partner, reflecting the abruptness of the structural break. On the export side, EU sales to the UK fell from €75.8 million to €38.7 million (−49.0 %). The UK thus ceased to be a major brassiere trading partner for the EU in either direction, a pattern consistent with broader post-Brexit trade disruptions.

3. Volatility, Shocks, and the Evolving Export Landscape

Export volatility is concentrated in a handful of markets

The volatility analysis shows that export flows to certain partners have been highly unstable. Exports to Türkiye (CV 0.49), the United Kingdom (CV 0.46), and Albania (CV 0.36) exhibited the highest coefficient of variation. By contrast, Switzerland — now the EU's largest single export destination at €87.3 million (+38.7 %) — and Tunisia (CV 0.13) have been remarkably stable, providing a reliable anchor for EU exporters.

The top three shock events reveal distinct vulnerability patterns

Three notable shocks were detected:

The Norway event (2017) involved a sharp price increase in a small-volume, niche market — the abnormality score of 144.4 is extreme, but the 5.6 % value share limited its macro impact. The UK import price shock of 2023 (+187.8 %) is likely an artefact of the changing composition of a dwindling import flow: as volumes from the UK fell, the average price of remaining shipments (possibly higher-end or specialised items) rose sharply. The Bangladesh import price shock of 2022 (+12.7 %), coinciding with the global inflationary wave and rising cotton and energy prices, is more structurally significant given Bangladesh's 15.9 % share in EU brassiere imports.

EU production specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

Among EU member states, export specialisation in brassieres (as measured by the RSCA index) is strongest in Croatia (0.80), Austria (0.56), and Estonia (0.33). Poland, with an RSCA of 0.25, stands out for having grown its exports from €6.9 million to €26.7 million (+288.4 %) — the largest absolute growth among EU exporters. At the opposite end, Ireland, Cyprus, Finland, and Malta show near-zero or negative specialisation, consistent with their broader industrial profiles. The dominance of Central and Eastern European countries in production specialisation likely reflects a combination of proximity to Western European markets, lower labour costs, and established textile manufacturing traditions.

The remaining EU export base is narrowing but moving upmarket

While total exports declined by 3.8 % in value, the picture varies sharply by country. Germany (+54.1 % to €90.6 million), Italy (+101.6 % to €78.9 million), and the Netherlands (+74.2 % to €28.7 million) have all grown their extra-EU exports substantially, while France collapsed from €102.5 million to €23.8 million (−76.8 %). This divergence suggests that the remaining EU export capacity is consolidating around a few high-value producers — notably Italy and Germany — while France, once a major exporter, has seen its position erode. Italy's doubling of exports, despite the general decline in EU production, points to a resilient luxury and niche segment.

Conclusion

The EU brassiere market (CN 62121090) has undergone a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has fallen by over 80 % in volume, pushing net import reliance from 33 % to 81 %. The sourcing landscape has been redrawn: while China remains the largest single supplier, its share is declining as Bangladesh, Viet Nam, and Myanmar have rapidly expanded their presence, benefiting from preferential trade agreements and cost advantages. The Brexit-driven collapse in UK–EU brassiere trade is another defining feature of the period. For EU policymakers, the key takeaway is one of growing dependency: the Union now imports the overwhelming majority of its brassiere consumption from a diversified but still concentrated set of non-EU suppliers, while its own production base continues to shrink. The few bright spots — Italian and German export growth, rising specialisation in Central and Eastern Europe — are insufficient to offset the broader structural trend.