Market evolution: Boiler parts (CN 840290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of EU trade in parts of vapour generating boilers and superheated water boilers (CN 840290) between 2015 and 2025. The period reveals a significant structural shift in the EU's position, characterized by a sharp decline in exports, a robust rise in imports, and a fundamental reorientation of trade partnerships. While the EU remains a net exporter, its trade surplus has eroded considerably, indicating a changing competitive landscape and supply chain dynamics for this industrial goods segment.

1. From a Trade Surplus Dominated Market to One of Import Growth and Export Contraction

The decade under review witnessed a dramatic reversal in the EU's trade dynamics for boiler parts, moving from a strong net exporter position to one where import growth significantly outpaced export performance.

The trade balance contracted by nearly 70%

The EU's trade surplus in boiler parts fell from €441.9 million in 2015 to €134.5 million in 2025, a decline of 69.6%. This contraction resulted from a combination of plummeting exports and surging imports.

Export volumes and value fell sharply, despite rising prices

EU exports of boiler parts suffered a severe decline over the period. The value decreased by 51.0% (from €496.2m to €243.3m), while exported quantity fell even more steeply by 69.8% (from 38,943 tonnes to 11,766 tonnes). This suggests a major loss of market share or a structural decline in demand for EU-produced parts in third-country markets. Notably, export prices rose by 62.3% (from €12,742 to €20,675 per tonne), indicating that remaining exports may have shifted towards higher-value segments.

Imports doubled, driven by both volume and price dynamics

In contrast to exports, EU imports saw robust growth. Import value more than doubled, increasing by 100.3% to reach €108.8 million in 2025. The quantity imported grew by 130.2% to 17,744 tonnes. The average import price, however, decreased by 13.0% over the period, suggesting that increased import volumes were sourced at competitive costs.

2. A Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of Asian Supply and the Diversification of Export Markets

The decline and growth in trade were not uniformly distributed across partners. The data shows a clear reorientation towards Asia for imports and a partial reshuffling of export destinations.

Key export markets contracted, with few exceptions

Traditional EU export destinations for boiler parts saw substantial declines. The value shipped to the United Kingdom, China, the United States, and Indonesia fell by between 51% and 76% over the period. Exports to Egypt collapsed by 94%. In contrast, exports to Saudi Arabia grew by 32.2%, making it the largest single export market by value in 2025 (€28.8m).

Asian suppliers captured a growing share of EU imports

The growth in EU imports was heavily driven by Asian nations. Between 2015 and 2025:

• Imports from China rose by 190.7% to €68.7m, making it the dominant supplier.
• Imports from South Korea grew by 193.3% to €16.6m.
• Imports from Vietnam and India surged from negligible levels to €922,854 and €554,134, respectively.

Conversely, imports from some traditional partners like Türkiye (down 72.0%) and Serbia (down 68.8%) decreased significantly by the end of the period.

3. Changing Supply Chain Dynamics and Emerging Vulnerabilities

Behind the aggregate trade figures lie shifts in supply chain structure, market concentration, and the EU's industrial base, which together paint a picture of a sector in transition.

Production grew while exports fell, indicating a domestic market shift

According to available production data, the value of EU production of boiler parts increased by 13.3% over the period (from €518.9m to €588.0m). This suggests that while the EU's manufacturing base remained resilient, a larger share of output was absorbed by the internal EU market rather than being exported, consistent with the observed export decline.

Import sources became more concentrated, raising potential supply risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value increased by 87.3% from 2282 to 4274 between 2015 and 2025, moving towards a moderately concentrated market. This rise was primarily driven by the growing dominance of China and South Korea as suppliers. The EU's export markets, while also seeing a slight increase in concentration (HHI +25.3%), remained more fragmented.

Certain trade relationships exhibited high volatility

Analysis of trade volatility reveals that several partnerships are unstable. Imports from Vietnam (Coefficient of Variation: 1.58) and Thailand (CV: 2.69) showed high year-on-year fluctuations. On the export side, flows to Israel (CV: 1.72) and South Africa (CV: 1.67) were notably volatile. Furthermore, the detection of supply shocks, such as extreme price shifts in exports to Mexico (2018) and Iraq (2022), underscores the fragility of some niche market relationships.

Conclusion

The EU's market for boiler parts (CN 840290) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The period is defined by the collapse of traditional export markets and a concurrent, cost-driven surge in imports, particularly from Asia. This has eroded the EU's substantial trade surplus, even as its domestic production base showed modest growth. The resulting trade geography is more reliant on a smaller number of Asian suppliers for imports, while its export footprint has become more focused on fewer, though sometimes growing, markets like Saudi Arabia. While the EU maintains a net exporter status, the shift towards greater import dependency and the observed volatility in key partnerships highlight evolving vulnerabilities and a clear restructuring of the global supply chain for this industrial component.