Market evolution: Barley (CN 100390) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in barley (excluding seed for sowing, CN code 100390) over the period 2015–2025. The European Union is a major global player in barley trade, acting as a significant net exporter with a consistently positive trade balance. Over the decade, the EU's barley trade has been shaped by shifting demand from traditional Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) buyers, the dramatic rise and fall of Chinese demand, and a major supply shock triggered by the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. The analysis draws on trade overview data, partner-level breakdowns, EU Member State contributions, and concentration metrics.

1. A Dominant but Evolving Export Profile

The EU remains a structural net exporter of barley

Throughout the entire period, the EU maintained a large and positive trade balance in barley. In 2015, the net trade surplus stood at €1.68 billion; by 2025, it had moderated to €1.53 billion, a decline of 9.2%. Export volumes fell from 10.2 million tonnes to 8.9 million tonnes (−12.6%), while export values declined from €1.89 billion to €1.72 billion (−9.0%). Unit export prices edged up from €185/t to €192/t (+4.2%), partially offsetting the volume decline.

China's demand surge and collapse reshaped EU export geography

The most striking dynamic over the decade was the trajectory of EU barley exports to China. In 2015, China was the EU's single largest export destination at €802 million, peaking at €991 million before collapsing to just €172 million by 2025 — a decline of 78.6%. This reflects China's imposition of anti-dumping duties on Australian barley in 2020 (which temporarily redirected Chinese demand toward EU suppliers) and the subsequent lifting of those duties in 2023, which allowed Australian barley to re-enter the Chinese market and displaced EU supply.

MENA markets absorbed the slack and grew substantially

As Chinese demand contracted, several MENA countries dramatically increased their purchases of EU barley:

Morocco and Algeria both saw their imports of EU barley increase by over 450%, while Jordan more than doubled its purchases. Saudi Arabia, though still the largest single MENA buyer, saw a 30.2% decline from its 2015 level. The net effect was a significant geographic diversification of EU barley exports away from China and toward the southern and eastern Mediterranean.

2. Market Concentration and the Rise of Eastern European Exporters

Export markets became markedly less concentrated

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU barley exports by value fell from 2,671 in 2015 to 1,026 in 2025 — a decline of 61.6%. This indicates a substantial diversification of export destinations. Where EU barley exports were once heavily concentrated in a few large buyers (notably China and Saudi Arabia), by 2025 the market was far more dispersed across multiple MENA and North African countries. The concentration data confirms this structural shift.

Import concentration remained high and relatively stable

In contrast, the HHI for EU barley imports remained elevated, moving from 6,006 to 6,314 (+5.1%). The United Kingdom dominated EU barley imports throughout the period, accounting for €150 million of €192 million in total imports in 2025 (78%). This reflects the UK's role as a major barley producer and its geographic and regulatory proximity to the EU market. Ukraine was the second-largest supplier but saw its share decline from €34 million to €22 million (−34.6%), likely affected by the disruption of the Black Sea trade corridor following the 2022 conflict.

Romania emerged as a major EU exporter; France remained dominant

Among EU Member States, France was consistently the largest barley exporter, though its share declined from €900 million to €716 million (−20.4%). Romania's rise was the most notable intra-EU development: its exports grew from €287 million to €505 million (+76.0%), making it the second-largest EU exporter by 2025. Denmark, by contrast, saw a dramatic decline of 80.9% (from €117 million to €22 million).

The specialisation data confirms that Bulgaria (RSCA: 0.75), France (0.63), and Denmark (0.58) are the most specialised EU barley exporters, while Ireland, Finland, Portugal, Italy, and the Netherlands are net importers with very low export specialisation.

3. The 2022 Supply Shock and Its Lasting Effects

The Russia–Ukraine conflict triggered a global grain price spike in 2022

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three major price shock events in 2022, all on the export side:

These shocks are consistent with the disruption of Black Sea grain exports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine and Russia together accounted for a large share of global barley and wheat supply; their sudden removal from the market drove up prices globally. EU barley, as an alternative source, saw sharp price increases in its MENA export markets — particularly Saudi Arabia, which alone represented 31.3% of EU barley export value.

Import-side volatility was driven by non-traditional suppliers

On the import side, the highest volatility was observed among smaller, non-traditional suppliers. Argentina (CV: 3.19), Australia (CV: 2.12), Russia (CV: 1.77), and Türkiye (CV: 2.45) showed the most erratic import patterns. Russia's imports into the EU surged from virtually zero (€1,285 in 2015) to €598,400 in 2025 — a percentage increase of 46,468%, though from a negligible base. Ukraine, despite being a major barley producer, showed high volatility (CV: 0.79) and a declining trend in its EU exports, likely reflecting wartime disruption.

The United Kingdom, by contrast, was the most stable import partner (CV: 0.24), consistent with its role as a reliable, geographically proximate supplier.

Prices normalised but structural shifts persisted

By 2025, EU barley export prices had moderated to €192/t, well below the 2022 peak of €320/t. Import prices, however, remained elevated at €235/t — 31.6% higher than in 2015. This suggests that while the acute phase of the 2022 shock had passed, some structural repricing had occurred, particularly on the import side where supply chains were more disrupted.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU barley trade underwent a significant transformation. The most consequential shift was the collapse of Chinese demand — once the EU's largest export market — and its replacement by a diversified set of MENA buyers, particularly Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, and Tunisia. This geographic diversification reduced export concentration (HHI fell 61.6%) and made the EU's barley export profile more resilient. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict represented the decade's defining shock, triggering sharp price spikes in key export markets and disrupting Black Sea supply chains. Within the EU, Romania emerged as a major exporter alongside the traditional French dominance, while Denmark's role diminished sharply. Looking forward, the EU's barley trade outlook will depend on Chinese import policy, MENA food security demand, and the resolution of the Black Sea conflict — all factors that have already reshaped the market over the past decade.